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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 3/19/21
This marks my final article of the week, and we've been on quite the heater. Thursday was frustrating with two of our guys getting unexpectedly ruled out, but that's the nature of this game sometimes. The good news here is that we have most of the injury news already had of us, making things a little easier. The Warriors will be the most interesting team to watch with two studs likely out, and that's a team you guys need to keep an eye on closer to the opening tip.
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Point Guard
Delon Wright FD - $5600 DK - $6000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 33.98 DK - 33.04
This pricing doesn't make any sense. Delon hovered closer to $7,000 before getting injured right before the break, and he's earned every bit of that price tag recently. In the 21 games before his leg injury, Wright averaged over 31 DraftKings points per game. You'd assume that his numbers are down with this price tag, but he's actually got at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last three games, flirting with a 40-point average in that span. What makes the pricing even more egregious is this matchup, with Houston owning one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in their current 18-game losing streak.
Tomas Satoransky FD - $4400 DK - $4400
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.43 DK - 25.01
Talk about some mispricing. Somebody at DraftKings and FanDuel needs to let the numbers guys know that Sato is the starting point guard in Chicago. That has allowed him to record seven assists in three-straight games, averaging 29 DK points per game in that span. How often do you see a starting point guard averaging nearly 30 DK points per game priced at $4,400? The answer is never, and it's clear that he's usurped Coby White on the totem pole. What makes it less surprising is that Tomas averaged 25 fantasy points per game in this role last season. Denver isn't too shabby of a matchup either, owning a 16th OPRK against opposing point guards this season.
If you want to pay up, Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard should go off against on one another.
Shooting Guard
Andrew Wiggins FD - $5200 DK - $6000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 34.39 DK - 34.62
Andrew Wiggins got a facelift, and it's completely changed his game. Haha, no, but he might be looking at some of the biggest usage of his career in this game. We say that because Stephen Curry and Kelly Oubre are likely sitting, forcing Wiggins into 40 minutes and 20 shots. That's going to force him into more ball-handling duties than ever as well, and he should provide value through sheer volume. He's sneakily been good with those guys on the floor this year anyway, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in all but three games this year, en route to a 30-point average. The matchup is pretty tasty, too, with Memphis owning a 27th OPRK against opposing shooting guards this year.
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $4200 DK - $4900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 23.98 DK - 25.43
Hardaway can be hard to trust because of his volatile shooting, but he's got way too much upside to be priced below $5K on both sites. The simple fact is, this guy has 30-point potential every time he steps on the floor. In fact, THJ has at least 29 fantasy points in 16 of his 28 games this season, averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game for the year. All of that makes him a heck of a value, and we haven't even discussed the best part of this play. That happens to be the matchup, with Portland ranked 29th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing SGs. This is also the sort of game where there could be a lot of small-ball and tons of three's fired up, which only adds to Hardaway's intrigue.
Devin Booker was in our article yesterday, and he obviously remains a great play in the same matchup after another gem.
Small Forward
Kevin Porter Jr. FD - $7000 DK - $7200
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 41.95 DK - 41.75
KPJ has been a regular in these articles recently, and he's going to remain in them if he continues to see the usage he's been receiving recently. This is a Houston club that's in full-on rebuild mode, and it's forced Porter into some major ball-handling duties. In his first five games with the Rockets, KPJ has at least 42 fantasy points in four of them, posting a 41-point average across 35 minutes a night. Those 35 minutes are hard to overlook, particularly with KPJ averaging 17.4 shots while generating a sky-high 27 percent usage rate in that span too. He's done a lot of that damage despite being blown out in many of those games, and it's scary to think how good he could be in a competitive matchup against a Detroit team with just 11 wins.
Larry Nance Jr. FD - $5300 DK - $5200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 30.46 DK - 29.63
The early-season form of Nance makes this price tag truly mind-boggling. Nance averaged 31.4 DK points per game across 35 minutes a night in a 15-game sample size before getting injured. What makes that crazy is that he did that damage with Andre Drummond in the fold, stealing tons of rebounds, which isn't an issue anymore. Nance has shown a bit of that early-season form recently, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last two games. That's a heck of a total from a player barely cracking $5,000, and we anticipate this price getting above $6K sooner rather than later. The matchup with the Spurs is simply a bonus, surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing forwards this season.
Keldon Johnson was special early on, and if he can recapture some of that early-season form, he's dangerous around $5K.
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum FD - $8900 DK - $8900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 45.35 DK - 46.48
Using opponents against the Kings is an absolute cheat code in DFS. We're talking about a Sacramento squad that owns the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA while surrendering gems to the opponent's best player on a nightly basis. That happens to be Tatum, with the Kings also allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing PFs. That terrible defense is a horrifying sign against Tatum, with the breakout PF averaging 45 DraftKings points per game. He's been even better recently, scoring at least 42 fantasy points in each of his last five games. A 45-point floor against this defense boosts up to about 50, and 60 DK points are certainly not out of the question. That makes him a huge value below $9K, matching up beautifully with all of the cheap guys we mentioned earlier.
Nicolas Claxton FD - $4000 DK - $3600
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 21.61 DK - 19.84
This is a risky play, but Claxton is the best big man in Brooklyn, and it's about time this team starts taking notice. They appeared to take a little notice on Wednesday, allowing Claxton to drop 27 DK points across 23 minutes of action. All we need is those 20-plus minutes, with Clax averaging 19.7 DK points in 16.4 minutes a night this season. That equates to more than 1.2 DK points per minute, one of the best rates around. Put that into perspective: If Clax gets 20 minutes and performs at that rate, we're looking at 24 fantasy points. That might not sound huge, but that's actually flirting 7X value at this dirt-cheap price tag. Those crazy per-minute averages tell us that he has monster upside, too, and it's scary to think how good he could be if he approaches 30 minutes. Nikola Vucevic's monster body should force Claxton into a little extra playing time as well.
Jerami Grant has seen his price drop around $7K, and he should provide value in such a good matchup.
Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $11000 DK - $10600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 59.93 DK - 62.63
Jokic just had a triple-double on Wednesday, doing that damage in just three quarters of action. That shows how special he can be, throwing his hat in the ring for MVP honors this season. We say that because the big man is currently averaging 26.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. That makes him the highest-scoring player in fantasy, falling 0.7 FP shy of 60 DraftKings points per game. What's even more amazing is his floor, scoring at least 42 DK points in 39 of his 40 games this season. The icing on the cake is this matchup, though, with Chicago ranked 24th in total defense while playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA. That was on full display when Joker had 39 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists on this dreadful defense in their one meeting earlier this season.
Mason Plumlee FD - $5700 DK - $6000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.56 DK - 30.47
Can we stop disrespecting Slumdog Millionaire? This guy has been a huge surprise for the Pistons this season, and he's definitely taken some tips from Jokic in Denver. That's clear when you see that his assists are at a career-high, stepping up in the absence of Blake Griffin as well. That improved distributing has led to Plumlee posting a 35-point average over his last 14 outings, despite seeing his price fall recently. That makes absolutely no sense at all, especially when you see that he has at least 33 DK points in five of his last six games. That matchup against Houston only makes Plumlee more enticing, with the Rockets ranked 23rd in total defense.
DeAndre Jordan is a good pivot away from Claxton as the starter, sitting around $5K on both sites.
