Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo drives against Charlotte Hornets' Jeremy Lamb during an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 26, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
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Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.31 DK - 51.88
With Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam out of the lineup over the last few games, Lowry has been called on for big minutes in the short term. He’s averaged 38 over his last three and put 17 points, 12 assists, and four rebounds in that stretch. And the 33% shooting from the field has also been well below his standard efficiency meaning there is probably room for growth on the scoring especially. The price hasn’t come up enough on either site to reflect the increase in minutes or usage with the other key Toronto Raptors out of the mix right now.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 53.31 DK - 55.99
CJ McCollum is set to come back pretty soon meaning we aren’t going to have many more chances to play Lillard when the usage is this much in his own hands. He’s putting up such a magnificent season with 30 points per game on 39% shooting from three where he’s averaging more than 11 attempts per game. That’s just silly and on Saturday he’ll face a Timberwolves team ranked in the bottom third in defensive efficiency on the season. This game’s 233 over/under is the second-highest number on the slate and it should be a high-scoring affair.
Consider Jrue Holiday (FD 6100 DK 6500) whose minutes restriction is off now. He’s facing the Wizards and their porous defense.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.08 DK - 27.25
This game is tied for the highest opening over/under on the day and we will want to target some players in this one for sure. Huerter does get hurt a bit on the minutes with the returns of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari getting more minutes off the bench. That’s something of an issue. But shooting guard is one of the weaker positions on the slate and I think targeting Huerter at these mid-tier prices is fine. He’s still running low-30s minutes and has put up 16 points and four rebounds over the last three games despite shooting only 33% from deep. That number’s been closer to 38% over the last couple of years.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 25.02 DK - 24.42
It can be tough trusting the Raptors and Nick Nurse’s rotations. He’ll play matchups as much as anyone meaning even if you are in the starting lineup doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be high-30s minutes or bust (unless you are Lowry and Powell). Over the last three games, Bembry has been starting and averaging 28 minutes per game. The price remains low and that’s good because the fantasy output is still suspect. It’s encouraging that he’s taken 15 total shots over the last two after putting up just one in that first game. You are definitely taking the minutes here punt prices, but it’s still a little risky for his fantasy output.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 43.69 DK - 45.41
I’m a little worried about blowout here with the Bucks favored about around 11 points going in. And the fact that they are getting Jrue Holiday fully back in the mix now does diminish the fantasy output of some of the other key parts. That much isn’t lost on me here. But the matchup against the Wizards is still such a good one with Washington running the fastest pace and playing the third-worst defensive efficiency in the NBA this season. That’s a DFS match made in heaven in terms of opponent meaning Middleton should still have a higher floor here despite the team getting healthier.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.17 DK - 40.38
He’s a shooting guard on DraftKings as well giving a lot of position flexibility over there. Like Lowry, with the other big names for the Raptors out of the mix, Powell has been in the starting lineup and been playing a ton of minutes. Over the last three games, he’s run an average of 38 minutes while putting up 19 shots per game in that stretch. And he’s shot the lights out from three at 54% which has helped him score over 30 points in that stretch. His fantasy production is very scoring dependent so the ball needs to go in the hoop to hit value, but he’s taking enough shots to keep the floor higher on that number.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 60 DK - 61.78
Look, there are a lot of good fantasy matchups on this slate so it isn’t like you need to stack the Bucks in this particular one against the Wizards. But it does offer such a high floor. The game has the highest opening line at 239.5 (tied with SAC/ATL) and should be an up and down game all the way through. And Giannis’s numbers continue to be among the very best in the game even if they haven’t reached the heights of last season. He’s still averaging 29 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists on the season with 2.7 blocks + steals. And the Bucks have been more willing to extend his minutes in close games as well-meaning there isn’t as much a risk of getting burned off the run.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.6 DK - 38.46
Like I said with Bembry, it can be a dicey proposition playing Raptors in cash right now outside of the two guards whose minutes are all but set. Everyone else is mostly at the whim of the coach and that can lead to significantly reduced minutes if the wind isn’t blowing in the right direction. The good news is that Boucher’s price has dropped on both sites and he’s played 30 or more minutes in each of the last two games. I think that’s enough to roll the dice considering he’s gone for an average of 30 points in the last two as well. When he plays, there’s almost no one in the game as good on a per-minute basis fantasy-wise than Boucher. The operative words here are “when he plays.”
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 50.33 DK - 50.29
Capela lost minutes last game because the Hawks were trailing by double-digits for most of the fourth quarter and had to go smaller to try and catch up. The idea that this kind of thing is even on the table does make Capela risky at these prices. But against the Kings and their league-worst defense, I think it’s fine to go this direction in cash. Over his last four games, Capela is averaging a ridiculous 18 rebounds and three blocks per game. Those numbers are nuts and overshadow that he’s been fine enough on offense on average with 14 points per game as well. It’s just the last two that have seen the scoring dip a bit. No matter, he’s still a value, especially on DraftKings where he’s a near-must play in cash at the $7500 price tag.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 24.33 DK - 24.78
As I’ve mentioned with some of the other Raptors, this can get a little risky with the minutes. But I think we can trust the last couple of games which have seen Baynes play around 30 in each. He double-doubled last game and came close the game before that. With this current personnel, he’s much more fantasy viable and that’s great news considering the price remains very low. I still prefer Capela on a per-dollar basis on FanDuel, though it’s close. And on DraftKings, you can play both.
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