FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 3/12/21

Thursday's slate was incredible, and we're ecstatic for more action here. What needs to be taken into consideration is that we're going to be looking at a condensed schedule. That means more games every night and more teams playing back-to-backs. That's going to cause chaos for DFS, but we're going to do our best to evaluate these situations and bank on some of these decisions to rest players. So, without further ado, let's get into this Friday slate!

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Point Guard

Darius Garland FD - $6200 DK - $6600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.79 DK - 32.04

Garland has been way too cheap all season long, and it's a wonder why. Before getting injured early on, the stud sophomore averaged 34 fantasy points per game. That's pretty much the guy we've seen recently, with Garlans scoring at least 21 DraftKings points in 18 of his last 19 games while averaging 29.2 fantasy points per game in that span. That even includes numerous blowouts, making Garland's upside even higher. What really adds to his value here is the matchup, though, with New Orleans surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards while ranked 29th in defensive efficiency.

Mike Conley FD - $6000 DK - $6400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 35.01 DK - 35.84

How often do you see an All-Star priced around $6,000? That alone makes Conley a great value, averaging 33 fantasy points per game for the season. That makes him look like a great buy, and this price is even more difficult to understand when you look at his recent form. The former Memphis guard has scored at least 25 DK points in five straight outings, averaging 33 fantasy points per game in that span. That's right on par with the season average, making the price drop all the more baffling. The matchup is simply the icing on the cake, with Houston having the worst record over the last month while sitting 21st in point allowed. Not to mention, the Rockets own a 22nd OPRK against opposing PGs as well.

Michael Carter-Williams is the starting point guard in Orlando and is always in play with his stat-stuffing ability.

Shooting Guard

Collin Sexton FD - $7800 DK - $8100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.24 DK - 37.43

Sexton has quietly been playing at an All-Star level for a month now. What's really crazy is his role, averaging 40 minutes and 20 shots per game over his last 10 outings. That's on par with many of the five-figure players, and it's allowed Collin to average 39 DraftKings points per game in that span. That's obviously a stupendous total from an $8K player, and it's clear Cleveland wants to run this guy into the ground. If he gets 40 minutes and 20 shots against this defense, 50 fantasy points are definitely in play. We say that because New Orleans ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed.

Patty Mills FD - $3900 DK - $4500
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 20.39 DK - 21.73

This might seem like a strange play on the surface, but Mills is actually seeing one of the biggest increases with LaMarcus Aldridge being released. That already added to his value, but with DeMar DeRozan likely missing this game too, Mills will be one of the primary playmakers. That's big news from a guy who has already been performing well recently, scoring at least 19 fantasy points in four-straight fixtures. That might not sound too special, but it's a pretty great floor from a guy sitting around $4K on both sites. With those two off the floor this season, Mills has a 25 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. That means if he plays the 30 minutes we anticipate here, we could be looking at 8X value on both sites.

Eric Bledsoe has been much better recently and remains a solid play below $6,000.

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler FD - $9600 DK - $9200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.14 DK - 45.14

Many people may not realize it, but Butler has been one of the best players in the NBA over the last month. What's really amazing is how much ball-handling Jimmy Buckets has taken on. That's evident when you see that he's averaging 22.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 1.8 steals over his last 16 games played. He actually scored at least 38 DraftKings points in each of those outings and established the best floor of his career. A revenge game against Chicago only adds to Butler's value, with the Bulls ranked sixth in pace and 25th in points allowed. Look for the Butler to be feasting even more with Bam Adebayo out as well.

Keldon Johnson FD - $5400 DK - $4800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 28 DK - 28.23

KJ is already in the midst of a breakout season for the Spurs, and one has to believe he's going to be a huge factor here with DeRozan and Aldridge both sitting in this game. Johnson has a 19 percent usage rate with those two off the floor while averaging exactly a fantasy-point-per-minute. Those might not sound too big, but that's quite the increase for a guy who usually provides value through sheer hustle. While his minutes have been limited since returning from the COVID list, one has to believe he'll return to his usual role here. Before hitting the COVID list, KJ averaged 29 DK points per game in 30 minutes a night. If we get that here at this decreased price, you've already found one of the best values on the board.

If Victor Oladipo or John Wall is out, don't forget about guys like Eric Gordon and Jae'Sean Tate.

Power Forward

Tobias Harris FD - $7800 DK - $8300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 40.72 DK - 41.29

Harris was a lock on FanDuel in Thursday's slate with his $6,900 price tag, and we still love him here around $8K. With Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid both out of the lineup, Harris is the man. That's on full display when you see his 30 percent usage rate with those two off the floor, averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. That was also clear in Thursday's game when Toby provided 24 points, three rebounds, and four assists through three quarters thus far. That shows just how good a playmaker he can be, but we haven't even discussed the best part of this play. That happens to be the matchup, with Washington playing at the fastest pace in the NBA while ranked 29th in points allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency. That makes them the best target in DFS, and Harris couldn't possibly be in a better spot to succeed.

Kyle Kuzma FD - $5600 DK - $5900
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.03 DK - 31.3

Kuzma is yet another guy who's stepping into a bigger role because of injury. Anthony Davis's absence has forced Kuzma into a much bigger role, averaging 28 DraftKings points per game across 32 minutes a night in his 11 starts this season. He's actually scored at least 25 fantasy points in all but three games that AD has missed or gotten injured, which is really all you can ask for from a sub-$6K player. That's why we have this 30-point projection, and it's not like Indiana's 20th-ranked defense worries us either. On the contrary, it should force Kuz into more minutes to oppose Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner.

If Aaron Gordon plays here, he's a great value on FanDuel at $5,500.

Center

Nikola Jokic FD - $11700 DK - $10900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 60.2 DK - 62.53

There is a ton of uncertainty on this slate, but Jokic is definitely not part of that. Amazingly, the big man is leading the NBA with 60 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 39 fantasy points in all but one game this year. That's a truly ridiculous floor, with only 16 players on this slate having a higher average than that absurd floor. He's been even more ridiculous recently, scoring at least 55 fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 games. That makes him worth it no matter the price, and he should be asked to play heavy minutes to oppose Jonas Valanciunas.

Wendell Carter Jr. FD - $5300 DK - $5900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 29.07 DK - 28.99

This youngster has been all over the map with his consistency, but he's got way too much upside to be priced below $6,000 on both sites. We say that because he's scored at least 34 fantasy points in three of his last four fixtures, averaging over 27 DraftKings points per game since returning from injury. He's done that despite seeing limited minutes in his first few games back, playing at least 27 minutes in four of his last six games. As long as this guy gets 27 minutes, WCJ should provide a double-double relatively easily. The matchup against Miami looks tough on the surface, but missing Bam Adebayo makes it far easier to exploit.

Steven Adams has a ton of upside for a player sitting around $5K.

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