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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 2/14/21
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Point Guard
LaMelo Ball FD - $7800 DK - $8700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 48.54 DK - 49.35
Lamely might just stick in the starting lineup even when PJ Washington comes back into the fold. The rookie is just tough to keep off the floor at this point. He started last game and finished with 20 points, 11 rebounds, and four assists (this should have been higher). In the month of February, he’s putting up 21 points, six rebounds, and six assists in 33 minutes. He draws an ok matchup against the Spurs who’ve been solid on defense and don’t run the fastest pace. But Ball is still underpriced on FanDuel.
Kyle Lowry FD - $7600 DK - $7300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 39.94 DK - 41.76
The Raptors draw one of the better matchups on the slate against the Timberwolves who rank 22nd on defense this season. It’s always a little tough rostering Toronto guys when they are mostly full strength in the backcourt, but I think you can consider it here. Lowry has gotten up 14 or more shots in four of his last five games and is coming off back-to-back 20+ point performances. This position, at least early, isn’t the strongest and more value might open up throughout the day.
if De'Aaron Fox sits again then Tyrese Haliburton (FD 6100 DK 6600) becomes a strong play.
Shooting Guard
Dillon Brooks FD - $5300 DK - $5400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.21 DK - 33.46
Grayson Allen FD - $4900 DK - $4300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.44 DK - 32.16
The Grizzlies are still without some guards on the wings right now and Allen actually got the start last game with Desmond Bane on the shelf. He was effective in his 35 minutes, scoring 23 points on an awesome 6-10 night shooting from beyond the arc. He needs to score to hit value which is always going to be a little risky. But the price is still way too low on DraftKings for the cheaper price tag.
Meanwhile, Brooks took the second-most shots on the team last game but struggled from the field going 5-13. Like Allen, he’s going to need to score in order to really give you a strong can option. But that’s good news because on Sunday the Grizzlies play the Kings who are the worst defensive team in the league and, for the season, it hasn’t been particularly close. Their 115 defensive rating is more than a point worse than the next-closest team. Stacking Memphis guys, especially on the cheap can have a high floor for Sunday’s slate.
Small Forward
Michael Porter Jr. FD - $5800 DK - $5900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.11 DK - 36.67
Will Barton is going to sit this game out which should land Michael Porter Jr. right back in the starting lineup and give him a very high minutes floor. The young forward has failed to capture some of the bubble magic we saw last summer with the shot attempts not coming at nearly the same volume this season. But he’s still shooting 42% from three and should get up low-teens shots in this game if he’s on the court for 30+ minutes. The matchup against the Lakers isn’t ideal of course, but the Nuggets are very thin on the wing with both Barton and Harris on the shelf.
Kyle Anderson FD - $5900 DK - $6300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.17 DK - 35.44
Anderson is having a breakout season from a fantasy perspective and is still sitting in the middle tier of pricing on both sites. He’s made strides in his three-point shooting where he’s ticked up to 36% from beyond the arc on four attempts which is more than double his career average. It’s led to a 13-point per game average, also a career-high. His minutes are among the safest on this Memphis team and, as I said above, the Kings are the best matchup on the slate.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11200 DK - $10900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 60.65 DK - 62.68
Giannis played 38 and 39 minutes in regulation in each of the last two games which stands in stark contrast to how the Bucks have monitored his run in past seasons. We are seeing a new level of minutes with the superstar, possibly in an effort to gear him up for extended run in the playoffs when the time comes. It’s led to predictably awesome performances and over the last month or so he’s averaging 29 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and 2.5 blocks+steals per game. The price is way up there, but it’s warranted considering the fantasy upside is nearly unparalleled.
Zion Williamson FD - $8300 DK - $8100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 47.31 DK - 47.06
Zion has played 37 minutes in back-to-back games which just furthers the idea that the minutes floor isn’t something to be all that concerned with. He’s scored 29 or more points in three of the last four games. He’s averaging 15 shots per game and is still super efficient around the rim with a 61% FG%. The rebounds haven’t come in quite as much as expected considering the minutes are solid. That’s something of a concern and makes him more scoring dependent than one would like. But it’s also what’s keeping his price in the lower $8K range.
Chris Boucher (FD 7200 DK 6800) is always the great mystery. The per-minute performance is among the best in the game. But coming off the bench is always going to make him a little risky.
If Isaiah Stewart (FD 4000 DK 3600) gets back to 30 minutes in the starting lineup with Mason Plumlee still out then he’s a great cash option on both sites. Foul trouble did the former dirty last game.
Center
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $7100 DK - $7400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 44 DK - 46.19
I know this has been the all-Grizzlies set of picks, but again, the reasoning is soundly based on the opponent. Jonas has played 29 or more points in the last three games after being monitored a bit when he came back from injury. One of those games included a 27 point, 20 rebound performance and he is a legit 20-10 threat in this game against the Kings. I think the minutes are very safe as long as the game stays close and he’s the top center play on the slate.
Cody Zeller FD - $5100 DK - $6300
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 31.65 DK - 31.36
The minutes have been a little weird on Zeller in the short term but there’s been some context there with a couple of blowouts and a little bit of foul trouble. I still think the plan for the Hornets is to play him close to 30 minutes when the going is good. His per-minute stats are very solid for these price points and he’s scored in the double-digits in four of the last five games. I much prefer Jonas here even for a higher price, but Zeller is still solid.
