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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 2/11/21
Wednesday was a very frustrating day for yours truly. The Pacers scoring 40 points halfway through the third quarter got me off to a tilty start, but the Isaiah Roby scratch was the straw that broke the camel's back. That sort of stuff happens in DFS, though, and it's just yet another reminder to keep your eyes on the news as much as possible. We're definitely going to bounce-back here though, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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Point Guard
John Wall FD - $7700 DK - $7100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 39.43 DK - 40.61
No one was really sure how Wall would look in his return from a two-year absence, but he's looked incredible thus far. Numbers aside, this guy is being aggressive and taking it hard to the basket numerous times a game. That means he's no longer thinking about his injuries, which is also evident by the fact that he's playing 30 minutes a game. He's been doing some severe damage in that playing time too, averaging 36 DraftKings points per game. Those numbers have been climbing over the last two weeks, scoring at least 34 DK points in seven-straight outings. The matchup against Miami is a bit worrisome, but they've regressed a bit on that end of the floor and will likely have a hard time slowing down Wall.
Kendrick Nunn FD - $5000 DK - $5800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.76 DK - 28.39
With Goran Dragic missing yet another game, Nunn should continue to start at point guard. After surprising many people in the first three months of last season, Nunn has recaptured the form that made him a Rookie of the Year candidate. In fact, Nunn is averaging 17.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.3 steals over his last 10 games played. That equates to 28 FanDuel points per game, which is great from a $5K player. Houston's defense has been better recently, but ranking fifth in pace still makes them a good DFS target.
Malcolm Brogdon is in the low $7,000s, which is too feeble for someone of his ilk.
Shooting Guard
Norman Powell FD - $6800 DK - $6700
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 34.17 DK - 35.13
It feels crazy to recommend Powell at this price, but he's earned every bit of it. The thing that's really opened his usage is the absence of O.G. Anunoby. That has forced Powell into the starting lineup, leading to about 35 minutes and 15 shots a night. Amazingly, Powell has scored at least 18 raw points in nine-straight games, taking at least 13 shots in all of them. That has led to a 27-point floor in that span and a 35-point average over on DraftKings. That's really all you can ask for from a sub-$7K player, especially against a Boston team that has struggled defensively this season. In fact, they own a 22nd OPRK against opposing shooting guards.
Tyler Herro FD - $5800 DK - $6400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.75 DK - 32.45
We already discussed how Dragic's absence has opened things up for Nunn, and it's done similar things for Herro. Despite coming off the bench, Herro is averaging 34 minutes and 14.4 shots per game over his last seven outings. He's actually barely shooting over 40 percent in that span but is still averaging 30 fantasy points per game. That means a hot shooting night could get him to a 40-spot, which would be a fantastic value from a $5,800 player over on FanDuel. Houston's pace only adds to Herro's value, with the Rockets also owning a 28th OPRK against opposing SGs this year as well.
Andrew Wiggins is a good value at $6,200 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Jaylen Brown FD - $8400 DK - $7700
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 45.98 DK - 47.12
Brown has dropped $1,200 since the end of January on DraftKings, and it's hard to understand why. After scoring 43 DraftKings points in his return from injury, he's now scored at least 33 DK points in 13-straight games. His average is up to 42 fantasy points per game in that span, making us scratch our heads on this current price decrease. What we really love is his role, with JB averaging 33 minutes and 20 shots a game in that span as well. A guy this talented getting a role like that is huge, and it should only rise with Marcus Smart continuing to miss games. The matchup is fantastic, too, with the Raptors surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. If you can figure out this price drop, please let us know why!
Jerami Grant FD - $8200 DK - $7400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 44.29 DK - 44.69
This is another strange price drop. Grant was actually down to $7,000 on Monday against the Nets, and that forced him into every lineup we had. He rewarded us with a career-high 32 points, finishing with 47.3 DK points. You might think that's an outlandish total when you see this $7,400 price tag on DraftKings, but he's averaging over 40 fantasy points per game. That means he has to be slumping, right? No, he's actually scored at least 45 DK points in three of his last four games. Obviously, there's some mispricing going on, and we certainly don't mind the fact that Indiana owns a 21st OPRK against opposing SFs this season either.
If Evan Fournier is out again, look for James Ennis III to play 30-plus minutes.
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis FD - $9300 DK - $8800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 51.45 DK - 54.41
Sabonis was all over our lineups on Wednesday, and he let us down a bit. Sometimes you have to go right back to the well, though, because this guy is too good to be this cheap. He still finished that game with 18 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and two steals in a "bad" game, showing you how dominant he usually is. That still extended a streak in which Dom scored at least 33 DraftKings points in all but two games this year, averaging 46.5 DK points per game. That's a ridiculous number from a sub-$9K player, and we absolutely love this matchup. Detroit currently ranks 22nd in both points surrendered and defensive efficiency, allowing big men to kill them all season long.
Daniel Theis FD - $4900 DK - $4900
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 25.85 DK - 25.63
Theis is never someone you're going to get excited about sticking into your lineup, but he's been too good to be below $5,000. We say that because he's scored at least 24 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. In the one game he didn't, Theis actually departed with a leg injury in the first quarter! That means he essentially has a 24-point floor right now, playing at least 27 minutes in each of those games as well. He had a lot of success against Toronto last season too, averaging 26 fantasy points per game in 11 meetings with them last year. That's far from surprising when you see their 24th OPRK against opposing power forwards so far this season.
Tobias Harris is one of the best bets for 40-plus fantasy points from all the guys below $8K.
Center
Nikola Vucevic FD - $9800 DK - $9400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 53.84 DK - 56.55
This guy is incredible. If it weren't for Vooch, this might be the worst team in the NBA. One reason we say that is because of all the injuries. The Magic are expected to be without Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Evan Fournier, and Aaron Gordon. That's essentially the rest of the starting-five, leaving Vuvevic to feast. He's been doing just that all season long, scoring at least 33 DraftKings points in all but one game this year while averaging 54 fantasy points per game across his last four fixtures. It's hard to imagine Golden State slowing him down either, playing without Kevon Looney and James Wiseman. That leaves them extremely short, which is scary considering that they rank second in pace and 21st in total defense.
DeMarcus Cousins FD - $6000 DK - $6900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 37.62 DK - 39.61
Cousins has struggled a bit in his last two starts, but Houston's form can be attributed to that. They got blown out in both of those games, limiting Cousins' minutes. This dude has still been a beast as a starter this season, though, averaging 38 DraftKings points per game in his seven starts. That makes it hard to believe that he's in the $6,000s on both sites, and people will undoubtedly be off of him after those two most recent duds. This is still a guy who's averaging 1.4 DK points per minute, and as long as he plays the 25-30 minutes we anticipate, he should have a 4X floor.
Mason Plumlee has been a pleasant surprise all season long and remains a good value on both sites.
