Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Monday's slate was full of great basketball, so hopefully, we get the same thing here. Betting lines would indicate that we should, with five of the seven games having spreads within five points. There's been a ton of blowouts this season, and it's time for these teams to start playing more competitive games. There's a lot to discuss, so let's get into it!
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Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 51.05 DK - 53.75
Lillard's price has been getting a bit outlandish recently, but it's come down just enough here. It's hard to understand why it has dropped, though, with Lillard running the show in Portland. With Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum both injured, Lillard has a usage rate north of 35 percent. That has led to him scoring at least 49 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games. That's a heck of a floor from a player sitting around $10K on both sites, and 35 minutes and 20 shots seem like a near guarantee right now with this team being so shorthanded. We also don't mind the fact that Orlando surrenders the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.65 DK - 29.85
Anthony got off to a slow start in his expanded role, but the rookie is really starting to turn things around. The thing that's really allowed him to flourish is the Aaron Gordon injury. That has left him as the primary ball-handler, scoring at least 28 DK points in four-straight fixtures. That's all you can ask for from a sub $6K player, and the matchup might be the best part of this play. The Trail Blazers currently sit 28th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season.
Kemba Walker is a heck of a value at $5,700 with so many injuries in Boston.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 39.63 DK - 40.13
With LaMarcus Aldridge missing games, DeRozan has taken over this offense. With him off the floor this season, DeRozan leads the Spurs with a 29 percent usage rate while averaging 1.34 DK points per minute. That's an incredible rate from a guy this talented, equating to 45.6 DK points if he plays the 34 minutes he's been averaging for the season. That's certainly on full display when you see that he's scored at least 45 DK points in three-straight fixtures. One of those happened to come against this 24th-ranked Warriors defense, collecting 21 points, six rebounds, and 10 assists. Scoring 45 fantasy points with no defensive statistics and shooting 6-of-15 from the field shows just how good he can be if he just doe a little more in those facets.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 31.39 DK - 33.02
Mike Conley is expected to miss another game here because of his hamstring issue, which puts Clarkson right in play. With him off the floor, Clarkson has a 26 percent usage rate, dominating shots and touches off of the bench. That looks even better when you consider Clarkson's recent form, averaging over 28 fantasy points per game across his last 17 outings. That makes it hard to believe that he's only $5,000 on FanDuel, making him one of the best value plays over there. The matchup against Boston is usually tough, but they're without Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, who would usually be tasked with covering JC.
If Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are both out, James Harden is one of the best plays on the board.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.07 DK - 42.58
Grant has seen his price drop over the last two weeks, but it's fallen way too far. We're talking about a guy who's scored at least 28 DraftKings points in all but two games this season, averaging 40.2 fantasy points per game for the year. Go look at DraftKings... How many guys below $8K besides Grant are averaging over 40 fantasy points? It's a big fat 0, and we're looking at a guy who's just $7K! It's not like he's slumping either, scoring at least 45 DK points in two of his last three games. We haven't even discussed the best part of this, and it's the matchup. Brooklyn currently owns the worst defensive rating in the NBA since acquiring James Harden.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.78 DK - 28.6
Ingles is another guy who sees his production jump with Conley out of the lineup. It essentially turns Ingles into the de facto point guard, improving his minutes, shot attempts, and assisting opportunities. That's evident when you see that Ingles is averaging 24 FD points per game across his last seven outings. That's a crazy total from a $4,500 player, and it's hard to understand why FanDuel is keeping him so cheap. We also discussed how Boston is missing two of their best defenders, and that should allow Ingles to provide 6X value on FanDuel once again.
Keldon Johnson is a substantial value below $6,000.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 45.92 DK - 47.36
If you've been reading these articles over the past two years, you know that Bam is one of my favorite players. That's not why we're recommending him though, he's also one of the best values out there right now. Big Bam has scored at least 35 DK points in 17 of 21 games this season, with a 27-point floor. That alone makes him a great value below $9K, but it looks even better when you see that Bam has at least 43 DK points in four of his last five fixtures. One of those happened to come against these Knicks, dropping over 50 fantasy points in one of the best games of the season. Many people might be scared of the matchup, but a weak offense like the Knicks opens up Bam for more rebounds, steals, and blocks, which is where he really thrives.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 24.85 DK - 24.52
Theis has one dud last week but has been really good aside from that. That one stinker was not his fault either, leaving in the first quarter because of a leg issue. If you take out that one game, Theis has at least 25 DK points in four-straight. That is something you rarely see from a player below $5K on both sites, and it's hard to understand why they're keeping him so affordable. What makes it even more strange is the fact that Boston is without Smart and Brown. That's going to force Theis into more usage, and he should be tasked to play more minutes against a stout Jazz frontline.
Grant Williams is a sneaky GPP play for the Celtics as well with so many injuries.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 56.53 DK - 58.56
We're going to make this simple; Embiid is the best play on the board! We say that because the big man has at least 39 DraftKings points in all but one game this season en route to a 52-point average. That absurd total puts him in play against anyone, but we're talking about a team with the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. That looks bad enough, but they're also surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. That looks even scarier when you consider Embiid's recent form, scoring at least 58 fantasy points five times in his last eight games.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 39.24 DK - 41.31
Cousins just had his worst start of the season on Monday, but that alone tells you something about how good he's been. Cuz dropped 28 DK points in that game, despite not playing in the fourth quarter due to a blowout. That ended a streak in which Cousins scored at least 36 DraftKings points in each of his other five starts, averaging 43 fantasy points per game in that span. That's a ridiculous total, and he's even better on FD, where he's only $6,000! This revenge game against New Orleans only adds to his value, with the Pelicans ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
DeAndre Jordan is a sneaky pick around $5K with Jarrett Allen out of the picture.
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