FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 2/1/21

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Point Guard

Lonzo Ball FD - $5700 DK - $5500
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.54 DK - 37.57

Ball and the Pelicans' starters have been plagued by a rash of blowouts recently, but Vegas sees them as 3.5 point favorites against the Kings this week. We saw the Pels' plans for Ball in the Milwaukee game, when he played 35 minutes en route to a 27/3/8 line. 6x points per dollar seems like the floor for Ball in close games (he nearly hit that in just 27 minutes against the Rockets), and he just looks like a stand out value in all formats.

Ja Morant FD - $7800 DK - $7600
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 42.59 DK - 43.83

Morant was a victim of his own success against the Spurs on Saturday, carving up these same Spurs for 19 points and 11 assists on 8 of 14 shooting before the Grizz ran San Antonio off the court. These two teams should be evenly matched enough that we can avoid a blowout here, and if we do, I suspect we'll see that Morant is 10% too cheap as he slides back into his pre-injury rotation.

If Terry Rozier misses this game LaMelo Ball will wind up being the highest owned point guard on the slate.

Shooting Guard

Cam Reddish FD - $4600 DK - $4800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.58 DK - 26.77

DeAndre Hunter will be out for the following week, leaving space for Reddish to hop into the starting lineup and do a little damage. Reddish looks poised to hop into a 35 minute rotation, and while there are a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland right now I still think he's just straight up under-priced against the Lakers here. This is a price and opportunity mismatch, and I'll be a buyer until his price climbs to the mid-$5000s or his role winds up being less than I thought.

Collin Sexton FD - $6800 DK - $7000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 37.61 DK - 38.54

Sexton's prices are approaching fair value at this point, but he's still slightly underpriced relative to his season averages. His time of possession per game is on the rise, and his 34 minute rotation should be enough for him to hit value in league-average match-ups. Going up against the Timberwolves is the icing on the cake. Their offense-first backcourt has allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, and Sexton should be a solid option in all formats.

Also considered: Wayne Ellington.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $10400 DK - $10200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 53.19 DK - 56.18
LeBron's MVP campaign rolls into the upstart Atlanta Hawks tonight. On a slate this size, we assume that we'll wind up getting some very solid value somewhere, so LeBron is certainly worth your time if you're looking for a good pay-up option. While the DFS averages on the year are nothing to write home about, it's worth noting that he's supplying that 25/8/8 on just 33 minutes a game. His natural rotation in close games is more like 37/38 minutes, and Vegas projects this game to be plenty close enough for 'Bron to get his full run.

Gordon Hayward FD - $7600 DK - $7500
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 42.6 DK - 43.25

Hayward is a text-book value play right now. He's playing 38-40 minutes a game, and registered his 3rd highest field goal attempts of the season (22) after Rozier left Saturday's game with an ankle injury. With Rozier currently listed as questionable, Hayward could see a bump once again. His price is already somewhat fair here, and getting the extra usage would just be a cherry on top against a Heat team that's actually allowed the 7th most FanDuel points per game to opposing small forwards this season.

Will Barton looks like a very solid option if Gary Harris misses this game, as expected.

Power Forward

Brandon Clarke FD - $6400 DK - $6200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 37.3 DK - 36.59

Like Morant, Clarke was en route to a big game against the Spurs on Saturday, putting together a 14/5 with a block and a steal in 26 minutes of action. Given Memphis' prolonged time off, it's easy to forget that Clarke was rolling out 32 FanDuel point games with regularity while hitting 46 FanDuel point upside before their season got derailed by Covid. Aldridge appears to be on his last legs athletically, and Clarke should be a high floor option here.

Lauri Markkanen FD - $6700 DK - $6800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.77 DK - 37.36

In a running theme for tonight, Markkanen is under-priced because his team has a tendency to play in games that aren't so close. Tonight he'll face the Knicks with the Bulls sitting as 3.5 point favorites, and we're projecting him for his typical 33-35 minute rotation. Since returning from injury Markkanen has topped 30 fantasy points in all but 2 tough starts against the Lakers and Celtics. I'd be happy to play him in what should be a close game with the Knicks.If Xavier Tillman starts again, he's also a nice play against the Spurs.

Center

Nikola Jokic FD - $10900 DK - $10900
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 60.45 DK - 62.75

Given that we've only listed LeBron as a big-ticket option tonight, it's probably good to get Jokic on your radar as well. The MVP hopeful is fresh off of massacring the Jazz for 47/12/5/1/2, and that's against perennial DPOY candidate Rudy Gobert. What will he do against the Pistons, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this year? I suppose we'll see. Jokic might be the most important big money option on the slate.

Cody Zeller FD - $5200 DK - $5300
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 33.17 DK - 33.95

I was shocked (shocked!) when Zeller was a sub 5% start in his first start against the Pacers, and all he's done as a starter is average 6.5x points per dollar in his last three games. He nearly triple-doubled against the Bucks, and put the two time MVP on a freaking poster. The Heat have been tough on opposing centers this season, but this is just a price and opportunity mismatch. It's Zeller time, and we're all just living in it.

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