Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving reacts from the bench during the first half of an exhibition NBA basketball game against the Sesi/Franca Basketball Club, Friday, Oct. 4, 2019, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 49.09 DK - 50.3
James Harden is questionable for this game and with the Nets already resting Kevin Durant on Friday there’s some chance another member of the big three gets to sit in this one as well. If that’s the case, then Kyrie would be a near-lock against the Wizards. Washington is the second-worst defense in the league this season and that’s not just because of the Covid protocol stuff. They stink. Since coming back from his hiatus, Irving is averaging 28 points and five assists per game. If Harden were to sit then the usage would undoubtedly increase.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.31 DK - 30.46
Garland is playing without a minutes limit now since coming back from injury and has been productive over the last week or so. He’s had double-digit scoring in each of the last three games and put up 17 shots last game in the loss to the Knicks. He needs to score to hit value and he’ll have a great chance for it against the Timberwolves who have trouble stopping anyone on defense. They are also dealing with a number of different injuries as well so this is a great spot for the Cavaliers.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 37.61 DK - 38.54
Sexton gets to face up against one of the league’s worst defenses in this matchup against the Timberwolves who rank 27th on the season in defensive efficiency. Sexton has shot poorly from the field in three of the last four games which has driven down his scoring totals. Plus the blowout against the Celtics was a total outlier. I think there’s still plenty of upside on the price point, especially on DraftKings. This will be easily the best matchup he’s had in the last week and that’s a great time to buy with the price dipping.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.6 DK - 29.65
Jeremy Lamb is firmly in the starting lineup for the Pacers who could also now be without another wing in Doug McDermott coming off the bench. It should keep Lamb’s minutes in the low-30’s and that’s a fine spot considering his price point. He’s had some up and down performances over the last three but has found enough usage at times to get the shot attempts into the double-digits. In fact, over the last six games, he’s averaging 14 points, five rebounds, and 1.5 steals+blocks. If he can keep getting up more than four threes per game, I think we can live with the prices and the volatility.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 51.59 DK - 53.17
Like I said with Kyrie Irving, this could be a game the Nets play without James Harden and that would represent a significant usage bump for the remaining superstars. Durant has hovered around value at these prices even with the team full strength and there’s a case to be made you could play him in cash regardless because of the opponent. He’s getting up more than 20 shots per game in the short-term and had double-digit rebounds in two of the last four games. His DraftKings price is particularly enticing.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.93 DK - 27.42
Hachimura had a minutes limit last game with him coming back from Covid protocols but there’s some chance that begins to tick up for this game. And against the Nets, he won’t have to run a ton to hit value at these prices. The Nets have been obliterated on the interior in terms of both scoring and rebounding. Before having to sit out an extended stretch, Hachimura had put up double-digit shots in three of his previous four games and averaged 13 points per game in that stretch. This is as much about the opponent as it is about the player considering the Nets' lack of interior defense.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 35.86 DK - 36.46
The Magic were blown out in each of the last two games which is throwing off Gordon’s lines because he played fewer than 30 minutes in both. But in close games, it’s clear the plan for Gordon is to run minutes in the mid-30’s. In the previous five games he played an average of 35 minutes with 14 points and eight rebounds. Over the last month or so he’s shooting better than 41% from beyond the arc too. It’s just that he hasn’t piled the stats together in games in the short-term. That’s led to a great price on FanDuel.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 22.33 DK - 21.63
This is an example of just how bad power forward is on this slate from a points per dollar standpoint. Birch’s big superlative is that he’s coming cheap which is about all you can ask for here. I don’t think paying up for Domantas Sabonis against Joel Embiid and company is the way to go so I think I want to get out of power forward, especially on FanDuel, for as little as possible. Birch, even coming off the bench is averaging 24 minutes per game over the last month with seven points and seven rebounds per game. He’ll throw in the occasional assist and defensive stat as well. On a short slate, there are worse ways to go if looking to punt a position.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 56.49 DK - 58.19
After some concern that he wouldn’t play last game, Embiid removed all doubt about his health in the game against the Timberwolves. He put up 37 points and 11 rebounds in just 27 minutes. It was a truly dominant performance in the inevitable blowout. This isn’t anywhere close to as good a matchup, but Embiid’s price is still a tick too low for what he can give you given full run. And he should have it here against a Pacers team that big across the frontcourt.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 21.62 DK - 20.81
If you are looking for a cheap, unexciting option at center and are fading Embiid then I suppose you can take a stab at Davis if Naz Reid remains out. The latter sat last game and Karl-Anthony Towns still isn’t set to return. That left 23 minutes for Davis in the starting role and he did manage eight rebounds while on the court. Considering Cleveland trends bit, the T-Wolves could find a reason to play him even more if he can stay out of foul trouble.
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