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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 1/11/21
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Point Guard
Malcolm Brogdon FD - $8400 DK - $8300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 46.65 DK - 47.87
Brogdon is playing unreal minutes this early in the season, averaging more than 40 minutes and 50 FanDuel points per game over his last four contests. Today he'll get his best match-up of the season, taking on a Sacramento team that's playing a top 10 PACE with the league's worst defensive efficiency. Throw in a hobbled De'Aaron Fox (who is battling a hamstring issue) and Brogdon should theoretically have his way here.
Elfrid Payton FD - $5500 DK - $6400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 35.36 DK - 36.19
When the Knicks can avoid getting blown out, Payton has been good for 33+ minutes and almost a fantasy point per minute. That's a straight-up price and opportunity mismatch, and Payton living up to his potential on any given night mostly comes down to whether the Knicks can hang. Given that the Knicks are just 4.5 point dogs here, I think we can expect an excellent game from Payton at a very reasonable price.
Also considered: Fred Vanvleet.
Shooting Guard
Tyrese Maxey FD - $5200 DK - $4700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 39.33 DK - 40.23
With Simmons and Milton (and Harris, Ferguson, and Poirer) all ruled out already, the Sixers are going to be wildly short-handed once again. You know who hasn't minded? One Tyrese Maxey, who threw up the most improbable 60 fantasy point performance I can remember against the Nuggets last game. He's got legitimate game, and he'll get a terrific match-up with the Hawks' offensive-minded squad tonight. Maxey is a cash game staple if he's starting again.
Bradley Beal FD - $10100 DK - $9900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 57.33 DK - 58.81
Speaking of cash game staples, it feels hard to go too wrong with Bradley Beal given how shorthanded the Wizards are in their own right. Westbrook and Bryant are ruled out, leaving a lot of usage on the table, and Beal was already paying these prices. Phoenix isn't the match-up they used to be since CP3 arrived, but this is shaping up to be a one man show in Washington, and Beal is a fine pay-up option in any format.
Keep an eye on Collin Sexton's status. With Garland already ruled out, Sexton will either be a great play in his own right or leave a bunch of minutes and usage for Damyean Dotson if Sexton has to sit.
Small Forward
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5800 DK - $6700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 33.95 DK - 36.15
Hardaway stepped into the starting lineup against the Magic after Josh Richardson was placed on the Covid-IR, and supplied 41 FanDuel points in 40 minutes of action. With Richardson unavailable here once again, Hardaway is a fantastic value play on FanDuel. The price is getting up there on DraftKings, but he's probably still playable. Like Phoenix, New Orleans isn't the cakewalk match-up they used to be (thanks, SVG!), but this is another case where the value simply outstrips the match-up.
Gordon Hayward FD - $7800 DK - $7900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 43.09 DK - 43.52
We get a buying opportunity on Hayward after the egg he laid against the Hawks. The good news is that the same red-hot Hayward we saw for a week leading up to that game is still present. He ran badly on rebounds (with 1 as opposed to the 6-7 he had been supplying), from 3, and didn't attempt a single free-throw. Like some other teams mentioned already, the Knicks are not the pushover they used to be with Thibs at the helm, but Hayward is still a very solid buy at under $8k on either site.
Also considered: Cam Reddish, given that Bogdan Bogdanovic is out for the foreseeable future, and Reddish played great off the bench last game.
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis FD - $9200 DK - $9300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 50.85 DK - 53.48
I actually can't think of a single issue with this play tonight. Sabonis is having a career year, and his price hasn't yet caught up. He's playing huge minutes and contributing reliably across three categories. He's also got the best match-up possible as I discussed in the Brogdon write-up. It's green lights across the board for Sabonis, and he's a great play in any format.
Brandon Clarke FD - $5600 DK - $6100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32 DK - 31.38
Power forward actually has some reasonable depth for a normally lousy position. Clarke is fresh off the best game of his career against the Nets, posting a ridiculous 21/8/5/2/1 line in 32 minutes. He seems to have secured his spot in the starting lineup, and gets a great spot against a Cleveland team that ranks in the bottom three against opposing bigs every single season. A 5x floor with a 9x ceiling? Sign me up in any format.
Center
Clint Capela FD - $6400 DK - $7000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.98 DK - 32.88
Capela has been putting up Dennis Rodman-esque lines recently, with 7/19 and 7/13 lines against the Hornets over his last two. While you'd like to see more scoring, one thing that is painfully obvious is that Capela's rebounding is giving him $6k floor. They'll need his size and defense against the Sixers, who are basically running Embiid and G-League team. We have him penciled in for the high end of his normal rotation, with 30 minutes and a double-double looking highly likely.
Andre Drummond FD - $9900 DK - $9200
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 53.1 DK - 53.95
Drummond is a bit of a bum-hunter, sure, but the good news is he's got some bums to hunt in this one. He's coming off of a devastating 26/24 performance against the Bucks, and murdered these same Grizzlies for 22 and 15 just last week. Drummond can disappear when the going is tough, but the Grizzlies don't seem to be able to make his going tough, and Drummond has huge upside here.
