(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
We’ve got a Saturday of playoff football with plenty of value to start the weekend on FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 21.33 DK - 22.1
Josh Allen could be a tough fade on this Saturday slate considering just how much of the team’s fantasy production comes through his arm and his legs. Allen finished the season as QB1 in terms of overall raw fantasy points and second only to Patrick Mahomes in per-game scoring at the position because the latter sat Week 17. While the Colts’ defense has been more than sound this season, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, this game has easily the highest over/under of the day (53) with the Bills as -7 favorites owning the best-implied total (29.5). Allen’s ability to sling it (37 passing TDs) and run (421 yards and eight TDs on the ground) make him the ideal cash game quarterback.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 16.23 DK - 17.05
If you want a cheaper option on this slate Wolford is actually a fine option. In his first NFL snaps, in a must-win Week 17 game against the Cardinals the rookie quarterback threw for 231 yards on a 57% completion percentage. That’s obviously merely *meh* but he also got out and scrambled for 56 yards on six carries. If he can do work with his legs then the floor is probably high enough at these price points. He’ll face a middle-tier defense in the Seahawks who allowed the most opponents plays per game (69.5) this season. It’s a pace-up matchup for Wolford who’s coming as the cheapest quarterback on the slate on DraftKings.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 16.94 DK - 18.03
Taylor comes into the game as a prohibitive underdog to the Bills, -7 on the road. That isn’t typically where we want to be with running backs, especially if there are concerns about lack of opportunity when playing from behind. Since Week 11, Taylor ranks third in running back fantasy points per game behind only Derrick Henry and David Montgomery. In that time he averaged 18 touches (16 rushes, two targets) per game and posted well over 100 yards per game in that stretch. There’s some concern a negative game script gives us a lot more Nyheim Hines, but it’s a risk you likely have to take in cash games on such a small slate.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 14.24 DK - 14.66
With the Los Angeles Rams banged up on the offensive front, they once again had to lean heavily on Cam Akers in Week 17 to get into the playoffs. It stands to reason they’ll take a similar path in the playoffs here against the Seahawks. Akers, who was questionable going into the Cardinals game, carried the ball 21 times though struggled to get it going at all on the ground finishing with only 34 total yards. That second part is, of course, troubling in the lack of efficiency. But he played the overwhelming amount of running back snaps and did also see four targets in the passing game. That latter piece is another welcome sign especially if the game script goes off the rails for the Rams. At these prices, he feels pretty safe for the opportunity.
Strongly consider Ronald Jones especially on DraftKings where he’s only $5,500 and walked right back into his regular role in Week 17. The Bucs are big favorites over Washington in this first round.
Also strongly consider J.D. McKissic especially if you think the Washington Football Team is set to fall behind in this game. He’s seen consistent passing targets even out of the running back position getting eight or more looks in four of the last five weeks. On DraftKings that should keep his floor high enough.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 15.08 DK - 18.74
Diggs is another one who could be a tough fade on this short slate, especially on DraftKings. He led the league in targets (166), receptions (127) and yards (1,535) this season. The last one wasn't even close with Diggs putting up 128 more yards than the next-closest wideout (Hopkins). You're only concerned about the price here but if you don't have to break the bank for a running back then I think he's definitely in play. Stacking Allen and Diggs in cash would appear to have an incredibly high floor.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 14.08 DK - 17.25
Lockett has had an up and down season in the Seattle passing attack with a few peak games and other lower-end performances thrown in there. He’s coming off a 14-target game in Week 17 that saw him got for 90 yards and haul in two touchdowns. The Rams secondary is among the better ones in the league of course but the target share should be high enough here to sustain the middle tier pricing. It’s not a great slate for wide receivers though we could find some injury value later in the week.
Other than Lockett, there are two situations we are going to need to monitor here as the week goes on to determine the rest of the Saturday cash game plays.
The obvious situation to keep an eye on here is around Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay wide receiver corps. Evans left Week 17 with a knee injury and didn’t return. It looked scary, but apparently, there is no damage. That being said, his status isn’t known at this time. If he were to sit then Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown would instantly jump to the top of the value list at the position.
Secondly, we don’t know the status of Cooper Kupp now. He was diagnosed with Covid-19 and had to sit out. It’s unclear if he’s available to return this week. If not, then Van Jefferson led the team in targets from Wolford in Week 17. He’s just about the minimum on DraftKings and would make an interesting punt. Josh Reynolds and Robert Woods would also be plays at their price points.
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 11.89 DK - 14.89
Don’t look now, but guess who finished third overall in tight end targets this season? If you guessed the guy I just put right about these sentences, then you’re right. Thomas’s 110 targets were behind only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. The looks peaked in Weeks 15 and 16 when he saw 28 combined, but the usage was steady all year long relative to the position. He’s the clear cash play in this game even with Alex Smith under center (the two great weeks were with Haskins/ Heinecke). The price, especially on DraftKings just hasn’t corrected enough.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 10.14 DK - 12.33
Gronk is an unexciting, though fine option at tight end this week considering the player pool is rough around the position. I prefer Thomas, but Gronkowski does have some touchdown equity in the Tampa Bay offense. He looks a lot better if Mike Evans were to miss this contest. I think I’d need the latter to happen to roll him in cash games, but on DraftKings there’s some case to go double tight end because of the cheaper pricing.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 7.55 DK - 7.55
I’m aware that I wrote up some Rams players as potential cash game plays and am now doing the Seahawks defense. But that’s the nature of these smaller slates where there isn’t as much mutual exclusivity around these things. Seattle gets the easiest defensive matchup against Wolford who was inefficient in his one and only start. Even if we play some Rams offensive guys, it’s hard to see Seattle’s D killing you in this spot.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 7.27 DK - 7.27
The Buccaneers are the obvious pay up defensive option facing off against the worse offense on the slate in Washington. Tampa Bay finished the season with the fifth-best defense in terms of DVOA while Washington finished with the league’s worst offense. Again, it’s kind of a miracle the latter even made the playoffs. This is maybe a situation to bite the bullet and pay full freight for a defense.
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