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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 1/4/21
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Before we get started, just note that Luka Doncic's status will determine a lot of where lineups are going to head today. If he's out, basically every remaining Maverick is in play from a DFS perspective. If he plays, you can't run them. You'll have to keep an eye out as it leads up to lineup lock.
Point Guard
Markelle Fultz FD - $5800 DK - $6500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 37.77 DK - 38.01
Fultz has picked up right where he left off at the end of last season, helping us understand why Orlando was happy to pay the former number 1 overall pick handsomely. He's been a similar player in all but one way - he's shooting way more often. He's added 5 shots a game (a 50% increase!) in spite of playing just 2 more minutes per game, and has 8+ assists in each of the Magic's last two non-blowout affairs. While the Cleveland back-court is promising offensively, they still have significant defensive struggles, and Fultz looks like a great value to me here.
Elfrid Payton FD - $5300 DK - $6000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.08 DK - 35.8
Stacking the Atlanta game has been a winning strategy so far this season, so we'll at least consider keeping the ball rolling with the relevant Knicks today. Payton's minutes have been up and down, which is why his fantasy points per game don't look great, but in close games, he's been playing a very active 33+. He'll likely draw Trae Young here, which could lead to another 19/8/5 type night like he just put up against the Pacers. It's a little closer on DraftKings at the higher price point, but he gets a full green light from us on FanDuel.
Keep an eye on Evan Fournier's status. He missed practice on Sunday, and if he doesn't suit up Michael Carter-Williams would be in play in spite of his limited production on 30+ minutes last game.
Shooting Guard
James Harden FD - $11400 DK - $11100
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 56.92 DK - 60.4
You'll likely have to pay up somewhere, so why not go with Harden? You're basically deciding between him and Giannis at the highest price tier, and Harden has been good for 8 more FanDuel points per game than him so far. He'll take on the Mavs, against whom he averaged an astounding 39/8/11 line last season. Not a typo. Assuming he's fully healthy, Harden seems to be easily the best big money option on the board today.
Victor Oladipo FD - $7200 DK - $7000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 40.83 DK - 42.37
We ran Oladipo his last time out, and he thanked us by shooting 2 of 15 from the floor. He still managed 30.7 FanDuel points. Listen - if Oladipo is really going to play 36+ minute rotations, then these prices are a joke. He's still cheap because of minutes weirdness, low ownership, and his bad shooting night, but this price will rise to $8k in short order if his minutes and usage from the early season can be believed. While Van Gundy has the Pelicans playing better defensively this year, Oladipo is just a case of a price and opportunity mismatch.
Also considered: Eric Bledsoe. He's coming off a fantastic game that was mostly fueled by 10 assists, which is somewhat out of character. Still, he's a very good value and should see cash game ownership here.
Keep an eye on Alec Burks' status. If he sits, Reggie Bullock is still under-priced for the 35+ minutes he could play tonight.
Small Forward
Jaylen Brown FD - $8500 DK - $8300
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 51.02 DK - 50.76
Is there a more fun start to the season than the one Jaylen Brown is having so far? He's averaging 28/5/3 and looking like the potential perennial All-Star that the Celtics hoped they had when they avoided putting him blockbuster deals in the past. He's shooting 4 more times per game at an astounding 57% from the field (nearly a 10% improvement over last year!) and adding more defensive stats as well. While Toronto is still tough defensively, they've played at the 8th fastest pace so far this season, so I don't think this match-up is the stay-away it might have been in the past.
RJ Barrett FD - $6100 DK - $6700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.11 DK - 32.6
Have you seen the workload RJ Barrett is carrying so far this season? He's played 34+ minutes in every single game, including 42 against the Pacers. He's averaged better than 5x points per dollar in that time, and one has to think that this amount of time on the floor could yield even more upside. If there's a day for that to come to fruition, it could be against the fast-paced, offense-only Hawks team. Barrett is a very solid mid-range option.
Also considered: Tobias Harris, even as his price is rising. He seems to be a better fit in Doc's offense than he was in Brett Brown's.
Power Forward
Julius Randle FD - $8100 DK - $9000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 40.25 DK - 44.28
Who on Earth is this man playing power forward for the Knicks, and what did he do with Julius Randle? The Knicks' big man is doing his best Jokic impersonation recently, flirting with a triple-double in all but one game this season. His 21/10/7 averages are just absurd, and while they might not continue, you can't imagine that a match-up with the Hawks (who seem to be involved in the highest total game every night) should slow him down. Randle could be the highest owned player at the position very easily.
John Collins FD - $6800 DK - $7200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 40.05 DK - 40.07
While Julius Randle has had a great start to the season in a lot of ways, you still won't confuse him with a defensive juggernaut. His teams have perennially ranked near the bottom in fantasy points allowed to opposing power forwards, and the Hawks are playing a brand of basketball that allows them to attack opposing weaknesses. Collins has been fine on these prices so far this season, but our model sees room for significant growth on the back of the simple fact that he's averaged 8 fewer minutes than what his normal rotation will likely be.
Also considered: Zion Williamson.
Center
Clint Capela FD - $6500 DK - $6100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 38.85 DK - 39.29
As usual, center is pretty light, which makes Capela look like something of a godsend here. He was a chalk option on DraftKings in his last outing, and promptly put up one of the best fantasy totals for any position, going off for 16 and 16 with 5 defensive stats against the Cavs. The price has come up, but if he's really in line for 29+ minute rotations this price is going to look 10% too cheap in a hurry. Look for him to build upon his early-season successes against the Knicks here, and be grateful that we have such a solid option at a reasonable price.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $8300 DK - $8800
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 48.21 DK - 51.01
Vuc has been quietly awesome this year, dropping nightly double-doubles, including a 30-13 effort in the Magic's loss to the Cavs on the 2nd. He's basically averaging paying these prices this season, and gets a match-up upgrade against Drummond and the Cavs. Drummond was benched last game after being drubbed by the aforementioned Clint Capela, and is a foul-trouble risked in the best of circumstances, and Vucevic's polished game should give the Cavs a run for their money.
