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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 12/31/20
This marks the final day of 2020! Good riddance! The good news is that basketball chugs along and we continue to grind out DFS profits. After a six-game slate on Wednesday, we're looking at a seven-game ledger here. We have no teams playing the second half of a back-to-back set and that makes things much easier on us. We'll give you a bunch of main slate plays today, and sprinkle in a few select plays from earlier slates as well. So, without further ado, let's get into it!
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Point Guard
Malcolm Brogdon FD - $7700 DK - $7300
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 39.46 DK - 40.81
Brogdon is quietly one of the best all-around point guards in the NBA and people need to take notice of how good this kid truly is. What makes him so special are his stat-stuffing ways, averaging 20.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game. That's led to him scoring at least 32 DraftKings points in all four fixtures this season and that's a heck of a floor from a player south of $8K. All of that pairs beautifully with this matchup, facing a Cleveland team that owned the worst defensive rating in the NBA last season. That was certainly evident when Brogdon averaged 45 DK points per game in three outings against them last year.
Elfrid Payton FD - $5200 DK - $5900
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 38.46 DK - 38.13
Payton found his way into this article on Tuesday and we're going to keep going back to him until his price rises to where it should be. What kept it so low were two terrible games to start the year but scoring 33 and 43 DK points in his last two outings show just how good he can be. Much like Brogdon, Payton provides value through stat-stuffing and that gives him a pretty nice floor considering his shot is busted. We're talking about a dude who's collected 41 points, 11 rebounds and 14 assists in those two games and he seems to always flirt with triple-doubles when given the minutes to do so. The best part about using him today might be the matchup though, facing a Toronto defense that owns a 29th OPRK against opposing point guards so far this season.
Lonzo Ball is yet another stat-stuffing machine and could do just that against a weak OKC roster.
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine FD - $7800 DK - $7900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 40.88 DK - 42.6
It was embarrassing that LaVine didn't receive an All-Star invite last season with his 25.5 points per game and he's surely going to do everything possible to get back there this season. While he did struggle in the first two games of the year, LaVine has 46 and 52 DK points in his last two outings, respectively. A big reason why he's been so much better from a DFS perspective is his usage, averaging 19 shots a game in those outings while posting a 30 percent usage rate. That sort of usage becomes especially intriguing when you consider that the Wizards ranked 29th in defensive efficiency last season and currently sit 23rd in it this year. LaVine has at least 43 DK points in five-straight meetings with the Wizards dating back to last season, posting an average north of 50 fantasy points.
Buddy Hield FD - $5400 DK - $6800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.43 DK - 33.58
DraftKings always tends to be sharper in terms of pricing and that's certainly the case here. While $6,800 is definitely appropriate for a guy like Hield, $5,400 on FanDuel is not. We're talking about a player who's attempted double-digit shots in all four games this season while never playing fewer than 34 minutes in any of those games. A workload like that is huge for a sharpshooter like this and it's just a matter of time before he starts dropping 30 FD points every time out. Facing Houston makes that all the more likely, with the Rockets ranked 28th in defensive efficiency so far this season.
Eric Bledsoe has been downright terrible but his price is getting to a point where we want to have some exposure to him.
Small Forward
Larry Nance Jr. FD - $6600 DK - $6600
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 34.04 DK - 35.34
With Kevin Love out for the new few weeks, Nance should feast. If you take out the one game that Love played his full allotment of minutes, Nance is averaging 11.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 3.0 steals and 1.3 blocks across 37.3 minutes a game in the other three fixtures. That might not jump off the page but that equates to an absurd 40 fantasy points per game. That's the fantasy point-per-minute player we've seen throughout his career and as long as Nance is playing 35-plus minutes, he should be in the $7,000s. We're not really concerned about an Indiana team who ranks 22nd in points allowed this season either.
RJ Barrett FD - $6200 DK - $6900
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 34.6 DK - 35.19
There weren't many players as bad a Barrett last season but it's a testament to this kid to see how much he's improved in the offseason. What's made him so good is his expansive role, taking at least 15 shots in all four games while averaging 37 minutes a game. That's one of the highest totals in the NBA and it's led to R.J. averaging 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 0.8 steals per game. It's hard to argue that Barrett is anything but a bad shooter but it really doesn't matter when you take at least 15 shots and play nearly 40 minutes a night. We love that against Toronto team that's surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.
Danuel House continues to play big minutes for the Rockets and could provide good value in the low $4,000s.
Power Forward
Christian Wood FD - $8800 DK - $7300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 44.74 DK - 46.58
This dude is an absolute monster and it's clear that he's going to be a focal point in the Rockets offense. If you watch the game, Harden just loves to feed this guy in the post and let him do work. That's led to him scoring at least 40 DK points in each of the first two games, averaging 27 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks across 40 minutes of action. Any player this talented playing 40 minutes needs to be taken into consideration, especially when they're only $7,300 on DraftKings. We love that against a Sacramento team that owns a 23rd OPRK against opposing centers as well.
Zion Williamson FD - $8300 DK - $7900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 45.1 DK - 45.42
Everybody loves watching this giant man play basketball and it's scary just how dominant he looks at times. It's certainly evident in his averages, tallying 21.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.3 steals across his first three games of the season. We're discounting the blowout loss to the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday simply because Zion didn't play in the fourth quarter and the Pelicans didn't show up. He still led the team with 20 points in that loss though which is awesome considering he played at least 38 minutes in the two games prior. If we get a dude this talented playing 38 minutes, we could be looking at multiple 20-20 games throughout the year. Don't worry about him facing off against one of the weakest rosters in the West either.
Jae Crowder has been a pleasant surprise for the Suns this season and remains too cheap on both sites.
Center
Joel Embiid FD - $10600 DK - $10000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 54.5 DK - 56.49
Embiid has been a monster in the early going and it's clear that Doc Rivers wants him to carry the load in Philly. Not only has the big man scored at least 49 DraftKings points in every game this season, but he's also taken at least 17 shots in all of them while posting a 30 percent usage rate. He also played 38 minutes in his most recent outing which is something we never used to see under Brett Brown. Orlando hasn't really done a whole lot to stop opposing centers either, allowing big games to guys like Thomas Bryant and Isaiah Roby recently.
Mitchell Robinson FD - $5200 DK - $5600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 35.4 DK - 32.35
Robinson is going to remain in these articles until he gets above $6,000. While he hasn't necessarily played like a $7,000 player, it's just a matter of time before he gets there. We say that because this is a dude who averaged nearly 1.5 DK points per minute in the past and is finally seeing the workload we've been waiting for. He's actually played 32 and 35 minutes in his last two games because Thibs is starting to realize this is his best rim protector. If you calculate that 1.5 DK points across 34 minutes, that equates to 51 fantasy points. While that might be a little too much to expect, it shows the sort of upside Mitchell has from a player south of $6K. We already discussed how terrible Toronto's defense has been earlier on and that only adds to Robinson's value. Foul trouble is really the only thing standing in Robinson's way tonight.
We also love Thomas Bryant in the $6,000 range against a lackluster Bulls frontcourt.
