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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday, 12/26/20
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Point Guard
Malcolm Brogdon FD - $7100 DK - $7400
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.36 DK - 38.82
Brogdon was, quite simply, phenomenal in the Pacers' opener against the Knicks. He was efficient on 8-16 shooting, and chipped in a well-rounded 8 assists, 7 rebounds, and 2 steals while he was at it. He played 35 minutes and appeared to be in excellent shape. Tonight he'll draw the Bulls, an average defensive team last year that arguably has gotten worse as it's shifted more minutes to the defensive challenged Coby White. I picture Brogdon rounding into an $8,000 DFS play in short order, and think we're getting a discount here.
Dejounte Murray FD - $6900 DK - $6400
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 35.91 DK - 35.61
Speaking of under-priced point guards, Murray put up a Brogdon-esque 21/6/9/2 line against the Grizzlies before losing a few minutes when the game was out of hand. With Derrick White out for this one as well, we can expect Murray to shoulder a similar burden against the Raptors here. While the Spurs played a middle-of-the-pack pace over the course of last season, they were one of the fastest-paced teams in the bubble last year, and I think many players on this squad could be under-priced as a result.
Terry Rozier FD - $6400 DK - $7000
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.88 DK - 33.46
Any concerns that Lamelo Ball was going to usurp the Charlotte point guard throne have to be at least set aside for the moment, with the Hornets' big-ticket point guard going to town for 42 points from the field an astounding 10 three-pointers against the Cavaliers in the Hornets' opener. He played 38 minutes out of the gate. Ball looked lost and didn't score a point in his 16 minutes on the court. Rozier's job looks safe for the time being, and while you don't love paying significantly more than you did in the opener, his floor looks high enough that you can justify it against a bad OKC team.
Shooting Guard
Buddy Hield FD - $5600 DK - $7100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 34.54 DK - 37.04
Hield came out of the gate smoking, playing 41 total minutes (including overtime of course) against the Nuggets en route to paying 6x points per dollar on these prices. Tyrese Halliburton saw a lot of minutes off the bench, but his usage was so low (just 7 shots in 30 minutes of action) that it's clear that the Kings are going to be relying on Hield's scoring ability at least in the short term. Phoenix played a top ten pace last season, and while that might decrease a bit with Chris Paul under center, this is still a fine match-up to run Hield into. He's probably 10% too cheap if he's good for 34+ minutes a game, and he looks like a rock-solid value play from here.
Devonte' Graham FD - $5400 DK - $6700
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 33.24 DK - 35.58
Shooting guard is going to get miserable in a hurry this season, so let's take advantage of guys that are too cheap (on FanDuel at least) until we can't anymore. Graham is resolutely building upon his excellent 2019-2020 season, playing 37 minutes in the opener while posting a double-double against the Cavs. He shot terribly and still managed 5x points per dollar, so I think this 6x+ points per dollar projection seems perfectly appropriate. The Thunder might be the worst team in the league, and while they have one good wing defender in Shai, the Hornets should still be able to score plenty here. If Graham is merely as good as he was last year, he's a great play here.
Lonnie Walker IV FD - $4700 DK - $4700
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 28.11 DK - 28.44
We'll round things out with a third cheap option in Lonnie Walker. Walker saw additional opportunity in the bubble last season, and if the Spurs' first game is to be believed, he should be in line for an expanded role this season. Walker touched 6x+ points per dollar in the Spurs first game against the Grizzlies, and while this is a tougher match-up with the Raptors, there is still plenty of cushion for him to pay these prices.
Also considered: Slightly larger than usual James Harden, who is basically the only ball-handler on the Rockets. It's just a question of whether his conditioning will leave him on the floor long enough to reach his potential.
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward FD - $7200 DK - $7300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 37.05 DK - 37.75
Okay, it's shaping up to be a couple of weird stacks on a rather large slate. But it is 2020 after-all. Hayward was terrific in his debut as a Hornet, scoring 28 points from the field with deadly 11-18 efficiency in the process. He played 36 minutes, and looked as healthy as one could imagine given his health concerns just 3 months ago. He was looking like Jazz-vintage Hayward as well, dealing 7 assists to his new teammates. It's looking like a three-man show in Charlotte right now, and I'm a buyer on all three until the prices rise.
OG Anunoby FD - $5200 DK - $5400
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 32.63 DK - 31.86
OG Anunboy took his newly-minted deal and tried to earn it in the Raptors' opener, chipping in a balanced 8/8/2 line with 5 defensive stats to go with it. If he's going to put together hustle stats like these in bunches and play 36 minutes a game the way he did on Thursday, the floor here is absurdly high. Throw in a nice match-up with the newly fast-paced Spurs and you have a totally respectable cash game play at an otherwise thin position.
Keldon Johnson FD - $4600 DK - $5000
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 27.84 DK - 27.56
Patrick Williams FD - $4500 DK - $4500
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 24.02 DK - 24.89
These guys get written up together because I view them pretty similarly. Both exceeded all expectations for them in their season openers, both in terms of minutes and production per minute. As a result, both carry some amount of risk going into their second game this year. If I had to pick one, I'd honestly go with Johnson. The Spurs played in a more normal game script in game one (the Bulls were getting blown out by the Hawks), so I trust his role a lot more than Williams even though Williams was a chalk cash game option. Still, I don't think you can go terribly wrong with either.
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis FD - $8500 DK - $8500
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 42.87 DK - 45.2
We've kept it pretty cheap in this article thus far, so it's time to start spending a bit. Why not start with Sabonis? He carried a strong preseason right into the opener with the Knicks, playing a full 37 minute rotation en-route to a deadly 32/13/5 line. While the Knicks are not a robust defensive team, Chicago has been giving up huge DFS total to opposing bigs for years, and that doesn't look to change this season. I love Sabonis' top end, and while he won't average 37 minutes a game this season he won't need to to pay an $8,500 price tag.
Christian Wood FD - $6700 DK - $5900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.22 DK - 38.16
Wood was set to be a universal cash game play on Thursday before the Rockets game got postponed, and with the Rockets still missing several key pieces here he rates to have an explosive debut against the Trail Blazers. He was averaging a 23/9 with 2 defensive stats a game in February and March last year, and if he's even 80% of that with his new team these prices (particularly the DK price) will seem like a joke in short order.
Bojan Bogdanovic FD - $4700 DK - $5900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 28.43 DK - 30.77
It's not a name you're ever excited to see pop up in your cash game lineup, but when you look up at the end of the season Bojan just flat out pays these prices. He played 33 minutes in the Jazz's opener, and while the Jazz didn't really need him much offensively (since they were crushing the Trail Blazers) he still managed 5x points per dollar on these prices. It's a softer match-up with the Timberwolves, and if they manage to keep it close Bojan should be a solid value at PF once again.
Center
Joel Embiid FD - $9800 DK - $10200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 54.87 DK - 56.97
We almost ran Embiid in cash games in the Philly opener before getting spooked by the potential of early-season Joel shape. Well, Embiid looked in mid-season form, playing 34 minutes and putting up an effortless 29 and 14 against the Wizards. While that was an admittedly good match-up, the Knicks he's playing tonight aren't exactly Pat Riley's Knicks of the 90s. It's another soft spot, and Embiid should roll here, making him my favorite big money play of the night.
The rest:
After Embiid, things are somewhat all over the place. How much do you trust Aron Baynes' 28 minutes in his Raptors debut? Is Andre Drummond poised for a "revenge game" against the Pistons, in spite of having a limited role on opening night?
Honestly, things just look pretty bad after Embiid, so I think I'll just pay for the big man and take my savings elsewhere.
