FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday Christmas Day 12/25/20

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Point Guard

Luka Doncic FD - $11300 DK - $10700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 57.92 DK - 62.43

It’s tough to like Doncic running into the Lakers on this slate, though LA looked moderately disengaged and disjointed in their first game of the season against the Clippers. The Mavericks lost their first game against the Suns, though he was once again fantasy elite with 32 points, eight rebounds, and five assists. No defensive stats and that line doesn’t quite get there on the price, but on this slate, I do trust him in the upper tier with the minutes as much as anyone who isn’t named Giannis.

Jrue Holiday FD - $7000 DK - $7500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.58 DK - 36.82

Get ready to see a lot of Bucks in your cash game lineups for Christmas Day. They opened the season against the Celtics with a one-point loss, but put up 121 points in that game. From a fantasy perspective, Holiday looked right at home with his new team running 38 minutes, getting up 16 shots; finishing with 25 points, six rebounds, and three assists. The minutes were the real standout in the first game of the season and could signal a new era in Milwaukee in terms of run. He gets the best matchup on the slate against the Warriors with the slate’s highest total. The FanDuel price is a little easier to stomach than DraftKings, but he has a high floor in the middle tier.

Stephen Curry FD - $8700 DK - $10200
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 43.82 DK - 46.34

The Warriors got dumped on by the Nets in the first game, but it’s hard to blame Curry who finished with 20 points and 10 assists in his 30 minutes. At his DraftKings price, he’s for sure in play even against the Bucks who didn’t look as defensively sound in Game 1 considering what we’d come to expect from them last season. That being said, this Warriors team might just be bad and I do think there’s real blowout risk. Again, the DraftKings price is likely just cheap enough to survive even if Steph got limited minutes but it’s close.

Shooting Guard

Eric Bledsoe FD - $5600 DK - $5600
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 34.06 DK - 34.97

Eric Bledsoe stepped right in and played the second-most Pelicans minutes (34) in the first game of the season. They beat the Raptors by 14 and Bledsoe was solid, scoring 18 points and chipping in six assists. He took the second-most threes (8) and the third-most shots on the team. As we said going into the game, his minutes appeared very safe in the new role and the Pelicans are clearly going to use him much differently than his time with the Bucks. He’s underpriced on both sites considering the potential run and that’s even factoring in a tougher matchup against the Heat.

Donte Divincenzo FD - $4500 DK - $4700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.38 DK - 27.39

Shooting guard is a good place to stick to the lower end of the price tier on this slate. DiVincenzo entered the starting lineup for the traded Eric Bledsoe and was good right out of the gate in the role. Considering who he shared the court with, the 11 shots in 27 minutes is a very encouraging sign and he was playing with the closing unit as well. He ran hot from three (3-4) which helped boost the scoring but that he chipped in on the boards and with a few assists means he’s unlikely to just run cardio with the starters. Again, stacking Milwaukee is the way to go here.

Jimmy Butler (FD 8200 DK 8000) is coming at reasonable prices on both sites in what should be a pace up matchup against the Pelicans. He put up a truly weird line in the first game with seven steals, but gave it back with six turnovers. The scoring was fine but Butler is often going to defer some stats to others in the lineup. But the matchup is a good one here.

Small Forward

Tyler Herro FD - $5000 DK - $5600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.55 DK - 31.47

Tyler Herro entered the starting lineup in place or Goran Dragic to start the season and made the most of the opportunity, taking the third-most shots on the team (14) but struggled from beyond the arc going 1-5. But the 32 minutes are a very solid sign for the second-year guard and he got on the glass with six boards. I really like the FanDuel price at a weaker small forward position and Herro should be in a good spot against a faster-paced Pelicans’ team.

Dorian Finney-Smith FD - $4200 DK - $4800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.04 DK - 25.52

Like I said, small forward on FanDuel for this slate is quite rough. On DraftKings, Jimmy Butler does fit some of the need because of multi-position eligibility. So what we are looking for on FD is enough minutes at a cheap enough price. That’s the case with Finney-Smith who played 36 minutes against the Suns on Tuesday. That won’t be an every night occurrence though without Kristaps in the lineup it’s at least a little safer with the wing minutes. Getting up 11 shots was actually an encouraging sign and he finished with 11 points and eight rebounds. I think we can happily run him out in cash games on FanDuel and spend up elsewhere.

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11600 DK - $10900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 65.25 DK - 68.03

Giannis is now a power forward on both sites and he’s the best big money payoff on the slate. He draws a great matchup against the Warriors who were torched by the Nets on Tuesday and have no clear defensive plan to deal with him especially with Draymond Green off the court. Giannis started off slow in the first game but rounded things out by finishing with 35 points and 13 rebounds. The seven turnovers were an issue and he missed a free throw at the end which would have sent the game to overtime. But in terms of fantasy upside, no one has more of it on this slate than the Greek Freak. He’s a lock for cash games on both sites.

Paul Millsap FD - $4900 DK - $4900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.97 DK - 28.9

Somewhat uncharacteristically, Millsap started the season by running 31 minutes in regulation and 36 minutes total (OT) for the Nuggets. This simply wasn’t the case for the veteran power forward even in the best of times last season so forgive me if I’m just a little distrustful of it repeating. But the sub-$5K price on both sites means it’s fine to risk a return to *normal* on his minutes for this slate. He matches up ok against a wing-heavy Clippers team which should mean he stays on the court. This is a minutes play pure and simple and Millsap can get there easily if the run is going to top 30+ again.

Center

Bam Adebayo FD - $8500 DK - $7800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 44.77 DK - 45.68

I need to go site-specific with the center play here because it matters depending on where you are playing. Because he’s simply too cheap on DraftKings, I think this is where you are going to want to be in cash. Bam continued his ascension into superstardom on Tuesday with an awesome opening line of 25 points, 11 rebounds, and four assists. He gave away seven turnovers (a Heat theme in this game) but that’s likely something of an outlier. He draws a great matchup against the Pelicans against whom he creates a mismatch. Bam is likely the center cash game play on DK.

After Bam, things get pretty weird at center. Let’s go through some of the options.

First, there’s Steven Adams (FD 5500 DK 5900). Do you trust the 31 minutes in the first game? I sure don’t. The Raptors committed to 28 minutes of Aron Baynes which helped keep Adams on the court. Against Miami, it’s going to be a different story and they could play Adams off the court quickly.

Nikola Jokic (FD 9700 DK 10100) is awesome but probably a little too expensive on FanDuel considering the options. I know he’s coming off a whopper 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 14 assists in the first game. But there are just some better pay up options and I don’t love the matchup against the Lakers.

Daniel Theis (FD 4200 DK 5400) and Tristan Thompson (FD 4600 DK 5200) kind of cancel each other out and I’m not sure they both get the start again facing the Nets.

DeAndre Jordan (FD 4500 DK 5600) is the starter in name only. Jarrett Allen is right behind him and the Nets don’t look like they’ll close with either.

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