Week 14 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 12/10/20

We are starting Week 14 off with some action on the Thursday night game between the Rams and the Patriots.

Los Angeles Rams
Opponent NE
Rams -4.5

The Patriots are coming off a massive, 45-0 stomping of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. And they have played better of late, winning four of their last five. But two of those wins were against a couple of the worst teams in the league, the Chargers and the Jets. They also somehow dropped one to the Texans. And of course, they still own a bottom-third defense.

The Rams are an incredibly balanced team on the season. They rank 4th in offensive DVOA and 5th on defense. And the best part of their offensive game, running the ball, lines up well against the Patriots’ biggest deficiency: stopping the ground game. The Patriots rank 28th against the rush on the season. It stands to reason Sean McVay and company will grind down New England with the rush.

All season, New England has tried to grind down teams with their own running game, trying to use Cam Newton’s legs while also leaning on guys like Damien Harris. And of late it’s worked having won four of their last five games. It hasn’t felt great (ever) betting against Bill Belichick, but let’s do it here. WIN

 

New Orleans Saints
Opponent PHI
Saints -7

The Saints head into Philadelphia this week with at least one more game of Taysom Hill under center. In the last three weeks, Hill has gone 3-0 though admittedly it wasn’t the toughest run of competition. They beat the Falcons twice and the Denver practice squad once. That being said, it doesn’t get much harder this week against the Eagles and Jalen Hurts’ first start.

On the Hill side, there hasn’t been much of a drop-off in the offensive efficiency for the team and though the offense looks different, they’ve still managed to put up points relatively speaking.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have struggled this season (understatement) and are now moving to a rookie quarterback in Jalen Hurts. Though Hurts did put tip yards through the air in his Week 13 debut, he was incredibly inefficient going 5-12. The Eagles likely reduce some of their sack issues, but it’s hard to imagine the offense taking a big leap here. New Orleans has the second-best defense in the league and should take advantage of Hurts’s inexperience.

 

Indianapolis Colts
Opponent LV
Colts -3

Though the Colts and the Raiders are only separated in the standings by one game (Indy 8-5, LV 7-5) the seasons have been very different on paper. The Colts have outscored opponents by 55 points while the Raiders have been outscored by 24. Admittedly, the Raiders have had the much more difficult schedule this season, but there’s still a wider gap in terms of these two teams’ talent levels that isn’t reflected in the line.

The Raiders have a bottom-third defense on the season while the Colts rank 6th and are better at stopping the run. Both teams are relatively even on the offensive side, ranking about middle of the pack. But again, the defensive edge on the Colts’ side is dramatic.

Other bets we are on this week:

Steelers +2.5

Packers -8

Chargers -2 

Titans -7

Cardinals -2.5

More bets to come later in the week! So check back on Friday and Saturday.