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Daily Fantasy NFL Early Look Games to Target for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 14
Welcome back football fans. To start Week 14, I will be taking a look at a couple of games that stand out. This comes early in the week so make sure to check out all of our content as the week rolls on leading up to lineup lock on Sunday. Let's get started.
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Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Line --- TEN -7.5
Game Total --- 53
This game doesn't have the highest total of the week but could very well end up with the most points. The first thing that stands out is the defense rank 29th(TEN) and 31st(JAX) in DVOA defense and both rank 25th or worse in fantasy points per game to EVERY positon. At least early on, this makes this matchup easily my top game to stack in GPP formats and you should probably consider multiple pieces for cash games, as well. Here are a few of my top plays:
Cash Games
Derrick Henry FD 10000 DK 9200
Opponent JAC
Proj Points FD - 21.71 DK - 22.67
King Henry is coming off his worst game of the season totaling just 69 yards against the Browns but is easily the top play in this game. The Titans are big favorites and Henry averages over 23 touches per game and has rushed for 100+ in seven of his 12 games. While that gives him an elite floor he also provides elite upside as he has averaged 142.8 rushing yards and 27.5 DraftKings points per game in those seven games. He is also $600 and $700 cheaper than Cook on DraftKings and FandDuel this week so roll him out in all formats.
James Robinson FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 17.4 DK - 19.51
Despite playing on a terrible 1-11 Jaguars team, James Robinson has been extremely productive and placed himself in the Rookie of the Year conversation. He is averaging 21.2 touches(4th most among qualified) and 106.5 yards(5th most) per game and is literally in a terrible game script each and every week. He has broken 100 yards rushing four times this year including against these Titans back in Week 2. The price is much higher this time around but the matchup remains strong as the Titans have given up 100+ yards rushing and 350+ yards total in three of their last four games.
GPP Stack
Ryan Tannehill FD 7800 DK 6200
Opponent JAC
Proj Points FD - 18.37 DK - 19.06
A.J. Brown FD 8200 DK 7600
Opponent JAC
Proj Points FD - 13.94 DK - 16.5
For GPP formats, one of the best ways to gain leverage is by fading the chalk which, in this game, will definitely be Derrick Henry. We have seen this scenario play out several times this season where Henry doesn't return value at high ownership while the pass game goes low-owned and tallies 3-4 touchdowns. This played out last week with Corey Davis going off and the fact he is much cheaper than Brown has me going to Brown to capitalize a bit on recent bias. I will be monitoring the ownership projections throughout the week and might even include this or a similar stack in my GPP article on Saturday. Stay tuned.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Game Line --- SEA -13.5
Game Total --- 47.5
You may remember the Seahawks from my latest GPP article and boy did they let us down. That combined with a mid-range Vegas total has me love this spot for fantasy this week and feel there are plays suitable for all formats on both sides of the ball.
Cash Games
Chris Carson FD 8000 DK 6300
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 17.72 DK - 19.45
Denzel Mims FD 5500 DK 4100
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 6.23 DK - 7.57
For cash games, these are two players who are in my early player pool. Let's start with Carson who, in his second week back from injury, saw a big increase in snaps from 25 to 42 and fantasy owners reaped the benefits as he tallied 110 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. He gets now gets an elite game script for a running back as the Seahawks are huge 13.5 point home favorites in this one. With the passing game struggling, look for another 15-20 touches from Carson who provides us with a high floor.
On the opposite side of the game, I like Denzel Mims coming back as the Jets should be trailing for most of game leading plenty of passing. Yes, the Seahawks pass defense has been better as of late but they still rank dead last in fantasy points to wideout and Mims has provided a very solid PTS/$ floor with 8-11 fantasy points in four straight games. His salary relief also allows us to pay up for an elite running back and/or passing game stack.
GPP Stack
Russell Wilson FD 9000 DK 7700
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 22.53 DK - 22.97
DK Metcalf FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 15.46 DK - 18.16
Jamison Crowder FD 6200 DK 5100
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 9.48 DK - 11.73
I am old enough to remember when Russell Wilson was a lock in all formats week in and week out. After putting up 24+ DraftKings points in eight straight games to start the season, he has only topped 20 points once(20.1) in his last four games. With that said, the price continues to rise and only Patrick Mahomes(DK) and Aaron Rodgers(FD) are more expensive this week. Those two things combined with a game script that favors Carson should once again give us a low-owned Seahawks passing game.
Metcalf is always the top stacking option as even his bad games(5 for 80 yards last week) won't kill you while his best games will break the slate. On the other side, I am not a fan of investing much more than Mims in cash games but for GPP I am liking what we saw from Crowder last week catching five of seven targets for 47 yards. While the yardage was concerning and the points were touchdown dependant, he did see a season-high three redzone targets. The yardage upside is most definitely there as well as he demonstrated with three straight 100+ yard games to start his season. The Jets are likely to be throwing lots and they get a plus matchup as the Seahawks rank dead last in fantays points per game to wideouts.
