Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 13

The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report.

Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly.

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Quarterback

The Chalk - Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick

The Pivot

Philip Rivers FD 7000 DK 5900
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 17.19 DK - 18.24

First of all, seeing Mitchell Trubisky being possibly one of the highest owned quarterbacks on this slate makes me want to vomit. That immediately makes me want to pivot in GPP formats and one of those will be Philip Rivers who should not only be low-owned but also provides that salary relief allowing you to load up elsewhere.

you never have to worry about volume with Rivers as he comes in averaging 40 pass attempts over his last four games and is on a bit of a heater with five touchdown passes in his last two games. There is no one pass-catcher that is my favorite to stack with Rivers as the target share is fairly spread out between Pittman Jr, Hines, Hilton, and Pascal. Of those, Pittman's target share has been trending the most as he is averaging 6.8 targets per game over the last four weeks.

The other part of this leverage play that makes sense is the matchup as the Texans have been much worse against the running back. After missing a week due to COVID, this should enhance the ownership for Jonathan Taylor who is coming off one of his best games but he has been anything but consistent this season. I love pivoting to the pass game and the Texans have allowed the 10th most passing yards and 13th most fantasy points to the QB position.

Running Back

The Chalk - Nick Chubb, James Robinson, Austin Ekeler

The Pivot

Aaron Jones FD 8400 DK 7200
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 16.24 DK - 17.92

Along with the chalk(high-owned) running backs listed above, you can also include Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry who are likely the two highest owned running backs despite their sky-high price tags. Even with a falling price, Aaron Jones is going to be very low-owned(sub 5%) this week as he has been in a slump failing to put up 2.5x value on DraftKings in five straight games. While the Eagles are a tough matchup for running backs(9th fewest fantasy points to the position), the Packers should control this game leading to a positive game script for Jones.

I don't love the fact his usage has drifted as Aaron Rodgers is on an MVP run but there is a ton of leverage in pivoting to Jones who we have seen return huge slate-breaking value in the past. While the chance of this working out is low, the return it would bring is more than worth the risk and you don't need a ton of exposure to have more than the field.

QB/WR Stack

The Chalk - Rodgers/Adams(GB), Cousins/Thielen(MIN), Trubisky/Robinson

The Pivot

Russell Wilson FD 9000 DK 7700
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 24.41 DK - 24.9
DK Metcalf FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 15.64 DK - 18.36
Tyler Lockett FD 7900 DK 7400
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 14.68 DK - 17.88

I went with a Seahawks stack back in Week 10 and while it didn't work out, I am going back to the well in a similar low-owned situation due to the chalk stacks at every price point. The big difference this week is the matchup as the Rams were a Top 5 DVOA defense vs. the pass while the Giants currently rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass(courtesy Football Outsiders).

Helping the low ownership out a bit is the fact Wilson has been on a bit of a slump failing to hit 3x value on DK in each of the last three games. I am not worried at all when he has the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at his disposal. Metcalf is the beast of the two and most likely the highest owned of all three players. For ultimate leverage, run some Wilson/Lockett stacks.

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