Week 13 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 12/1/20

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Tennessee Titans
Opponent CLE
Titans -6

This line started at -4.5 (which we got in early on) and then climbed to -6 in the span of about 36 hours. It isn’t enough. The way things are trending, you’ll likely be able to get it at -5.5 when you read this. That works too obviously. The thing here is the Browns are the biggest smoke and mirrors team in the NFL. They are 8-3 with a negative point differential. Read that again: They are 8-3 and have been outscored by 21 points this season.

The reason for this is they have played the second-easiest schedule in the league. They have one win against a team with a record of better than .500 (the Colts). When they’ve played actual *good* teams, like the Ravens and Steelers, they’ve been smoked. They rank 19th in defense, non-schedule adjusted which is a travesty considering their offensive opponents have ranked their D as the second-easiest schedule. Should I keep going here?

Sure, Tennessee’s defense is no great shakes, but the offense ranks 3rd overall. The Browns are average or below on both sides of the ball. Absolutely love the Titans here not giving enough because the opponent has a mirage of a record.

 

San Francisco 49ers
Opponent BUF
49ers +2.5

The 49ers have played most of the season without their original starting quarterback and have had basically every running back get hurt at some point. They’ve had injuries on the defensive end as well with guys like Richard Sherman just coming off the IR last week. And yet, in spite of bad runs all around on the injury front and a 5-6 record on the season, they still have a positive (+7) point differential. That’s because the coaching is among (or just is) the best in the league.

This week is a little weird with the 49ers having to move out of California and into Arizona because of COVID-related regulations. After three-straight tough games against the Seahawks, Packers, and Saints they pulled out a win over the Rams in Week 12. San Fran has the 9th-ranked defensive DVOA on the season and have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in eight of their 11 games this season.

Meanwhile, the Bills has merely a +17 point differential despite playing the 19th most difficult schedule (SF is 6th FWIW). They have a below-average defense overall but are particularly susceptible against the rush where they rank 22nd. That’s a big problem against a 49er team that just got Mostert back and wants to run down opponents’ throats. This matchup is setting up ideally for San Fran.

 

New Orleans Saints
Opponent ATL
Saints -3

The Saints are now 2-0 with Taysom Hill under center. Sure, one of those wins was against the Denver Broncos who started a middle schooler at quarterback, but at least it was a definitive 30-3 win. But maybe, more importantly, they are only two weeks removed from beating these same Atlanta Falcons 24-9. That was Hill’s first game, and after a rocky start, he got things going with 233 yards passing and another 49 on the ground. The Saints with Hill are running an almost entirely different scheme with Alvin Kamara relegated to a much-reduced role. But it’s hard to argue with the results so far.

And sure, Atlanta has looked mostly good since firing Quinn. They’ve gone 4-2 in their last six, scoring a lot of points in every game except the one against the Saints. They blew out the Raiders in Week 12 43-6 in something like a statement win. But the Saints are just a significantly better team. They rank 5th in offense and 2nd on defense for the season. Few other teams are this balanced even if the offensive approach has changed. This line is off considerably.