Week 11 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/18/20

After another strong Week 10, going 2-0-1 (HOU miracle push) and 4-1-1 over the last two weeks, we have Week 11 lining up for some solid NFL betting value.

Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now!

Tennessee Titans
Opponent BAL
Titans +6.5 Titans +240 .5 units

This is an interesting game between two 6-3 teams who’ve reached their respective records in decidedly different ways. For starters, the Ravens haven’t had anything close to the offensive punch we saw in 2019, ranking 24th in DVOA on that side of the ball. Lamar Jackson appears to have regressed to his personal mean and the numbers have dropped dramatically off his MVP season. But on the defensive side of the ball, they’ve been stout once again, ranking 6th and even better against the rush at 3rd. That, for sure, could be a problem for Tennessee who wants to get things going with Derrick Henry early.

On the other hand, we have the Titans who’ve made hay on offensive ranking 4th overall and, most importantly, 2nd in their passing attack. This is an important piece here against Baltimore who’ve been worse in their passing defense. All things considered, the Titans have a balanced offensive attack that can exploit holes in the Ravens’ front. Sure, the Titans’ defense has been an issue this season ranking 24th overall. But when it plays out through the numbers, these teams are closer to even than the 6.5 spread would indicate. Take the Titans’ points here in what should be a closer game.

Arizona Cardinals
Opponent SEA
ARI +3.5 ARI +140

Here we have another road team getting points. Let’s take them. This season, home teams have a slight advantage when it comes to scoring, but it’s ever so slight. On the season, they are outscoring visitors by less than half a point per game. It’s not nothing, but it’s a far cry from what we’d seen in say 2018 when that number was more like 2.2. Arizona is coming off the Hail Mary win over the Bills in Week 10 and are now in a three-way tie at the top of the NFC West. They have the best point differential of the group (which includes Seattle) though arguably have played the easiest schedule. But this is still a team with a top-10 defensive DVOA and the 12th ranking on offense. The losses to the Panthers and Lions earlier in the year don’t look great, but the Miami loss in Week 9 isn’t as egregious considering what we now know about that team. Oh, and don’t forget they beat this same Seahawks team 37-34 in overtime just a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost three of their last four in admittedly tough games against the Cards, Bills, and Rams. But we are starting to see what happens when the defensive is just an absolute sieve. The offense simply can’t keep up. The Seahawks are particularly bad against the pass, ranking 26th in DVOA and the combination of Kyler through the air and on the ground should give them fits again.

Chiefs
Opponent LV
KC -.6.5

The Chiefs' only loss of this year was to these very same Raiders at home back in Week 5. In marked one of the bigger upsets of the season when Las Vegas took them down 40-32. The key was the Raiders keeping the Chiefs’ offense in check in the second half in which LV actually led by 16 at one point. I hate to call this a blip on the radar, but from the rest of Kansas City’s returns this season, it sure looks like it. The Raiders were able to control the ball on the ground and the time of possession once they had the lead which ultimately led to KC’s demise.

And honestly, the run-stopping could be a problem again. The Chiefs rank 30th in defense DVOA against the run while Las Vegas is 12th on the ground. The latter will want to lean on Josh Jacobs quite a bit again if given the opportunity.

But I do think this Chiefs offense will, in the end, simply be too much for the Raiders to get a perfect game script out of it again. Kansas City has won six of their nine games by nine or more points this season and are coming off a bye week to prepare. This isn’t to say the Raiders are pushovers by any means, but they still have a bottom-third defense on the season. And their +14 point differential this season does look a bit worse than the 6-3 record would suggest. In all, this is a spot to lay the points with Kansas City.