Webb Simpson watches his tee shot on the sixth hole during the third round of the Dean & DeLuca Invitational golf tournament at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, May 27, 2017. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
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*Exhales* We can finally take a breath after another amazing Masters and a huge congratulations to Dustin Johnson. He not only won his first Green Jacket but blew the field way by five strokes and only tallied four bogeys the entire event. Amazing week! Deleting the Masters App from all my devices, however, is like saying goodbye to a close friend I won't see for a long time. The good news here with the Fall Masters is that the next one is only 142 days away!
This week the PGA Tour heads to Sea Island Resort for the RSM Classic and while it's not the Masters, the field is very solid with two Top 10(Webb, Hatton) and 20 of the Top 50 players in the World teeing it up this week. Let's get started by looking at the courses(that's right, multi-course rotation szn).
This is a week where a multi-course rotation is used for the first two days. Each golfer will play one round on the Seaside course and one round on the Plantation course on Thursday and Friday and all golfers who make the cut(Top 65 & ties) will play their final two rounds on the Seaside course only. The two-course rotation at this event started back in 2015 with just the Seaside course used in previous years. Let's take a look at the courses with the most emphasis going into the Seaside which will host three of the four rounds.
Sea Island Resort(Seaside Course)
Par 70 - 7,005 Yards
The Seaside Course is a Links-Style Par 70 that comes in on the shorter side at just over 7,000 yards. The fairways are average width but with a ton of danger lurking outside the fairway(water, thick rough, native areas), golfers will once again be heavy on a "Less than Driver" strategy off the tee. Because of this, we have seen the average driving accuracy over 70% almost every year since. The greens are also larger than average(7,200 sq feet) which drives up the Greens in Regulation number putting emphasis on not only Proximity but we also see, for the most part, good or at least above average putters do well here. It is the harder of the two course's but there will be birdies as it has ranked outside the Top 25 in difficulty in each of the last five seasons. Get that Birdie or Better % in your models.
Sea Island Resort(Plantation Course)
Par 72 - 7,070 Yards
The Plantation Course is right around the same length(7,070) as the Seaside Course after the redesign by Davis Love III. It is also a Par 72 and has played much easier ranking outside the Top 30 in difficulty over the past five years. Most of the scoring on this course will come from the Par 5's which have made up over 45% of the total birdies in the four years despite only making up 22% of the holes.
For my model, I will be focusing my model around the Seaside course which will be used for three of the four rounds.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Fairways Gained
This is something that works across both courses. While the rough is not very penal on either course, missed fairways lead to bad angles and most all there are dangers all around with water in play on 13 and 10 holes on the Seaside and Plantation courses respectively.
Strokes Gained: Approach/Fairway Proximity
After finding the fairway, the approach shot is what will separate the cut makers from the top of the leaderboard. Simple greens in regulation won't tell us the whole story here as the average GIR is usually around 75% so I will be looking at a mix of fairway proximity and the mid-range proximity ranges(125-150 and 150-175 yards).
Par 4 Scoring
Seaside Course is used for three of the four rounds and is a Par 70 with 12 Par 4's and two Par 5's so I will be weighing Par 4 scoring heavily.
Birdie or Better %
The average winning score has been right around -20 over the last five years and with no huge wind threat in the forecast(10-15 mph), I see the score getting there again so birdies are king!
With all that said, let's get into the picks.
Webb Simpson
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (10/1)
Draftkings ($11,200)
FanDuel ($12,000)
Webb easily comes in at #1 in my(and probably everyone's) model this week. He is 7th or better in this field in every key piece of my model(odds, stats, history, form) and it starts with course history as he is coming off a playoff loss last year and a T3 in 2018 and has five finishes of T12 or better in his last seven trips. He also enters this week with excellent form coming off a T10 at the Masters and now has finished 17th or better in seven straight events with four Top 10's. There are definitely enough value plays to go stars and scrubs in cash with Webb but most of my exposure will come in GPP formats.
Corey Conners
World Golf Ranking (#57)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($10,300)
It is very close in this range for me and it shows in the overall model as Conners is #7 and Munoz is #8. They are both Top 25 in ball striking on my sheet, they both come in with nice form and having been making birdies in bunches recently. I slightly lean Conners when digging a bit deeper with Fantasy National and what stood out is that Conners ranks(in this field) 7th in SG: Off the Tee and 13th in Fairways Gained over the last 24 rounds while Munoz ranks 70th and 67th in those stats. Both golfers are in my player pool in all formats but I will have slightly more exposure to the Canadian ball-striking king.
Brian Harman
World Golf Ranking (#93)
Vegas Odds (46/1)
Draftkings ($8,500)
FanDuel ($10,100)
For cash games, this 8K to low 9K range(DK) is money this week with multiple players who check almost every single box. Add Harman to that list as he returns to the RSM Classic with some nice course history having finished T14, T32, and T4 in the last three years and has made the cut in six of eight trips with three Top 15 finishes. He has also been very consistent recently having made the cut in 11 straight events with seven finishes inside the Top 30. Statistically, he has gained strokes off the tee in four of his last five events, gained strokes on approach in five straight, and gained strokes putting in eight of his last nine. Put it all together and it equates to one of my top PTS/$ cash games plays this week.
Doc Redman
World Golf Ranking (#82)
Vegas Odds (56/1)
Draftkings ($8,000)
FanDuel ($9,800)
Another one of those players is Doc Redman who finished T23 here last year and has really flashed upside lately with Top 5 finishes in three of his last seven events. It lines up with his elite ball-striking as he ranks(in this field) 10th in SG: Off the Tee, 8th in Fairways Gained, and 21st in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. That has also led him to Top 25 ranks in both opportunities and birdies gained and make him a top PTS/$ play this week.
Harold Varner III
World Golf Ranking (#113)
Vegas Odds (81/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($8,800)
Despite a somewhat weaker field, there is still a ton of value and for me, it starts with Varner in the mid $7K range on DraftKings and sub $9K range on FanDuel. He has played here twice finishing T68 and T23 adn comes in with some nice form making the cut in five of his last seven events with all five finishes coming inside the Top 30. Lately, he has either been on with the irons or on with the driver and when he puts the ball-striking together he has Top 10 upside. All things considered, he is my favorite PTS/$ value play this week.
John Huh
World Golf Ranking (#601)
Vegas Odds (201/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)
FanDuel ($7,400)
I mentioned that stars scrubs could even work in cash this week if you wanted to start off with Webb in your lineups and John Huh is one reason why. He has been consistent for the price recently making seven of his last eight cuts and while we are not at all looking for a Top 25, he does have that upside(T19 at the Shriners). Statistically, he ranks 24th in fairways gained, 7th in mid-range proximity, 27th in par 4 scoring, 34th in opportunities gained, and 19th in SG: putting over the last 24 rounds. I will have exposure in all formats.
image sources
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