The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report.
Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not always the safest plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly.
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The Chalk - Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs, Deshaun Watson/Brandin Cooks, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams
The Pivot
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 22.71 DK - 23.16
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 16.35 DK - 19.1
Looking at the buzz around the industry, Week 10 brings us a terrific opportunity to jump on board an elite QB/WR stack that could be the lowest owned we have seen them in some time. The projected low ownership comes from a combination of a below-average matchup for the Seahawks pass game and terrific matchups for the four chalk stacks I listed above.
While the matchup is tough vs. Rams who rank 10th in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in fantasy points against both QB and WR, this game has the second-highest total(55.5) on the slate and is primed for a high-scoring game. The Seahawks also own the league's #1 passing offense(298.1 yards per game)
Wilson and Metcalf have also been one of the most consistent and highest-upside stacks in the league as they have combined for 40+ DK points in seven of eight games and 50+ in six of eight. I also like the upside when looking at the advanced stats as Wilson is 5th among starting quarterbacks in air yards per attempt and Metcalf is 10th in aDOT(average depth of target) of players with 25+ targets on the season. The results from those opportunities have shown as well as Wilson leads the league in completions of 40+ yards(9) with Metcalf receiving four of those which also leads all wideouts.
Both Wilson and Metcalf project to be lower than 10% owned in GPP formats and if that holds as we approach lineup lock, I will be loading up and in search of GPP glory!
The Chalk - Aaron Jones, Mike Davis, Alvin Kamara, Chase Edmonds, James Conner
The Pivot
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 9.52 DK - 10.33
At the running here back position, Kareem Hunt provides some excellent leverage in GPP formats. Kamara, Jones, Edmonds, and Conner will control the ownership at the top of the salary, and fitting two of them is very easy with Mike Davis vastly underpriced. Then you add in the fact that Niuck Chubb shed the brace in practice this week and could return this week and I see Hunt coming in around 5% owned. This doesn't not scare me away at all as Hunt has actually been better with Chubb in the lineup averaging 17.4 DK points in teh first four weeks with Chubb and only 13.1 DK points per game without him in the lineup.
More than anything, I love the matchup here as the Browns are three-point home favorites going up against the Texans who have given up a league-high 144.9 rushing yards per game to running backs and the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
The Chalk - Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams
The Pivot
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 21.77 DK - 22.28
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 5.94 DK - 6.96
We don't always have to pivot to a completely different game when trying to find leverage and the Packers are a perfect example. When I multi enter I like to usually go with 3-4 teams and build 5+ lineups around each in a 20 max build. This week the Packers are near the top of my list as huge favorites(-13.5) against a Jaguars team that is 2nd to last in overall defense(28th vs. pass, 27th vs. run) and points per game against(30.9).
Scantling has been nowhere close to consistent or what the Packers expected at the WR2 spot as he is catching just 46% of his targets this season There is some good news here as he is on the field for over 90% of the Packers snaps, is coming off a 2 TD game, and gets a ton of opportunities downfield with the fifth-highest aDOT(17.4) in the league(WR with 20+ targets). At his price, you can run him with Adams and Rodgers or with Rodgers and Jones or just with Rodgers.
I will have all of the above!
image sources
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