Week 10 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/12/20

Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 10 after a 2-1 record in the article.

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Texans
Opponent CLE
HOU +3
It’s tough taking teams who have been, well pretty bad this season. That’s definitely the case with the Texans who fired their head coach/GM midseason and sport a 2-6 record with the only two wins over the lowly Jaguars. That is far from a great resume though it’s worth noting they had a brutal stretch to start the season against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and (to some extent) the Vikings.

By opposing record, the Texans have the 8th most difficult schedule this season. It’s for sure been a rough go of it. But they remain an above-average DVOA offense and still have Deshaun Watson under center. This is worth something. The defense ranks poorly, but they’ve had the second-hardest schedule in terms of the offensive opponent which does help explain some of that.

Meanwhile, the Browns' 5-3 record is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They have a -31 point differential on the season despite the 20th most difficult schedule on the season. Both the offense (17th in DVOA) and defense (19th) are below average this season. Records aside these two teams aren’t all that different with the Houston passing offense making up for the lack of effort on the defensive end. I’m a little concerned with the Houston motivation her considering the record has gone off the rails, but by the numbers, I see this as more of a pick’em.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent CAR
TB -5.5
It was a rough scene for the Buccaneers in Week 9 with them losing control of the game early against the Saints and ultimately getting dumpstered 38-3. It’s hard to know what to make of that game and whether it’s just a blip on the radar for a team that was 6-2 coming in. It’s not excusable, but one game doesn’t a season make. They struggled to get going on the ground and really couldn’t do anything on offense.

But despite that performance, this Bucs team still ranks first overall in DVOA defense on the season and are well above average on offense. This is still a very good team that had a very bad week.

Meanwhile, Carolina has sported one of the league’s worst defenses this season, ranking 26th while playing slightly worse against the run. They’ll once again be without Christian McCaffery who is out with a shoulder issue. In the three games CMC played, the Panthers averaged 26 points. In the six games without him? They are averaging 22 points. Running backs are generally replaceable, but McCaffery could be one of the lone exceptions. The 8th-ranked offense takes a massive hit without him on the field. When they played in Week 2 (with CMC) Tampa Bay controlled the game and won 31-17. Carolina should be getting more points in this matchup.

Rams
Opponent SEA
Rams -1.5
The Seahawks are starting to show what happens when your quarterback is great, but you can’t stop a single sole on defense. They have a 6-2 record, best in the NFC but are only 6th in point differential(+31). That’s worse than the Rams (+41) who they face this week. It’s because the defense ranks 24th in DVOA and 29th against the pass.

Sure, the offense is awesome and ranked fourth. But the Rams are ranked 5th. And there’s such a huge disparity on defense where the Rams rank 8th overall and are better against the pass which could cause Russ and company some real issues. The disparity on the defensive side of the ball has the Rams covering this one.