(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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MASTERS WEEK!
After being postponed due to COVID-19 in April, the Masters is finally here. It will be a bit different this time around but what about 2020 has been normal? One thing will remain the same and that is an elite field of players teeing it up on the most famous course in the World.
Augusta National Golf Club may look a bit different in the Fall but it will still play like it always has, tough! That's right, ANGC has ranked 16th, 7th, 2nd, 3rd, and 14th hardest over the last five years. The first thing I look at when putting my model together is distance as the course is a Par 72 that stretches out to almost 7,500 yards while having some generous fairways to hit. One thing we always here about in relation to the off the tee game is a right to left ball flight(draw for RH golfers, fade for LH golfers) as there are six Par 4's and two Par 5's that are shaped this way. It isn't everything but Tiger Woods(x4), Patrick Reed(2018), Sergio Garcia(2017), Bubba Watson(x2), Phil Mickelson(x3), Zach Johnson(2007), Adam Scott(2013), and Mike Weir(2003) make up 14 of the last 19 Green Jackets, all with right to left ball flights. I don't have this weighted into any model but when it comes down to a Golfer A vs. Golfer B decision, I will most definitely be looking at this closer.
The biggest challenge at Augusta is the bentgrass greens which are very fast and undulated with shaved edges creating a ton of runoffs. Even with around 68% of the field hitting the fairway on average(last five years), the Greens in Regulation average has hovered around 64% in that time. This has me focusing on two things quite heavily in my model this week, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
Let's start with the approach which kind of ties into the distance part as the longer hitters will be using shorter irons or even wedges which is a huge advantage as it is easier to get the ball higher in the air which helps with a softer landing and higher change the approach sticks on the green or even on the correct tier. If not rostering a bomber, make sure to look closely at that players' long iron game(Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards) and if you want to go deeper, you can even glance at Apex Height.
The next and arguably most important part of having success here at Augusta comes around the greens. With very difficult green complexes that are fast, multi-tiered, and undulated, even the top players in the field will be missing greens and those who can get up and down and save pars will be ahead of their competition.
Finally, I will be looking at multiple putting stats this week starting with overall SG: Putting, SG: Putting on bentgrass greens, and three-putt avoidance. I will also be using Fantasy National and looking at putting performance on fast greens, as well.
Let's look now look at the scorecard and my key stats.
Augusta National Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,475 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Strokes Gained: Approach/Opportunities Gained
Looking at the proximity in the mid-ranges(125-150 & 150-175 yards) for the longer hitters and long iron proximity(175-200 and 200+ yards) for the shorter hitters. With larger fairways and a higher driver accuracy % this week, I will also be looking at fairway proximity. On Fantasy National, this also ties in with their opportunities gained stat.
Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
As I mentioned above, this will be very important this week with the very difficult green complexes. You can also throw in sand save % here, as well.
Par 4 Scoring
Looking at the last five years, there have been 57 players finish Top 10 here at the Masters and only eight of those players finished outside the Top 20 in Par 4 scoring for the week and the winner has ranked 7th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd in those years. par 5 scoring is also important as they ar the easiest holes on teh course but the Par 4's are where I feel players can really separate themselves from the field.
Birdie or Better %
Like SG: Approach, this stat is in my model each and every week as it correlates very highly with fantasy scoring. This stat also says "or better" which includes Eagles and we have seen 689 of these over the last two years with the majority of them coming on Hole #13 and #15.
With all that said, let's take a look at a few of my core plays in each price range.
Justin Thomas
World Golf Ranking (#33)
Vegas Odds (13/1)
Draftkings ($10,700)
FanDuel ($11,600)
Many people will be loading up on the Hulk, I mean Bryson DeChambeau and while I will have exposure my focus is on Justin Thomas at the top. He is #1 in my main model on the sheet and that is with average course history. While he has yet to post a Top 10 here at Augusta, he has improved each trip(T39, T22, T17, T12) and comes in with some excellent form. He has finished T12 or better in four straight events with two runner-ups and since the return of golf in June, he has tallied seven Top 10's and a win in 13 events. Statistically, what stands out the most, is that he has gained strokes on approach and around the green in 12 of those 13 events. It all comes down to the putter which has been up and down but specifically on bentgrass, he has gained strokes putting in four straight and 11 of his last 13 rounds. Thomas is my pick to win and one of my top DFS plays this week.
Jon Rahm
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($10,500)
FanDuel ($11,700)
I don't normally write up two players in the $10K+ range but with a major, is it not hard to stack two top-tier golfers in a lineup. It is even more in play at the Masters with a smaller field(93) where we can almost knock off 20 names right off the bat. I will be focusing mostly on this stars and scrubs approach and Jon Rahm comes #2 in my model right behind JT. Since missing the cut at the first event back from the COVID break, Rahm has caught fire making the cut in 12 straight with two wins(Memorial, BMW Championship), five Top 10's, and eight Top 25 finishes. He also comes into this week having gained 5+ strokes ball striking in each of his last three events and has been terrific around the greens gained strokes in that area in six of his last seven events. He now returns to Augusta where he has finished T27, T4, and T9 and is primed to push the leaderboard once again.
Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (36/1)
Draftkings ($8,800)
FanDuel ($10,400)
I went back and forth between Finau and Matsuyama in this spot for the better part of Monday. I will have exposure to both but will side with the Masters' chalk here as Finau comes back to Augusta with Top 10 finishes in his only two trips including a T5 last year. Both he and Hideki have seven Top 25 finishes in their last 10 events played but Finau gets the edge as he also has five Top 10's in that time to Hideki's two. The final thing that sways me towards Finau is the putter which has been very consistent lately as he has gained strokes in eight of his last 10 events with the flat stick. All things considered, both are in play for me in all formats but as of now, I will have a little more exposure to Finau.
Cameron Smith
World Golf Ranking (#45)
Vegas Odds (81/1)
Draftkings ($7,300)
FanDuel ($8,700)
Cam Smith was a name that popped off the page right away when putting my sheet together this week as he came in at #14 in my overall model, the highest-ranked player under $8,500 on DraftKings. This will be his fourth Masters adn while he has finished outside the Top 50 twice, he was terrific here in 2018 and with a final round 66, finished T5. Looking at the stats, he has been solid with his irons having gained strokes on approach in eight straight events and also comes in with red-hot with the putter gaining at least 1.8 strokes in four straight events and averaging an elite 3.8 per event in that time. I love the form, the course history, and most of all the price on both sites leading him to be a core play for me in all formats.
Kevin Kisner
World Golf Ranking (#34)
Vegas Odds (101/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,900)
Course history is high in my model this week and Kisner fits that model as he has made the cut in all four previous trips with Top 30 finishes in each of the last two years. He also returns with some excellent form having made the cut in eight of his last nine events with seven Top 25's and two Top 5 finishes. Statistically, his strengths lie in two very important areas for me this week as he is 9th in SG: Approach in this field over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC) and looking at my sheet, he is 6th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass among players with 10+ rounds in my database. Kisner is my favorite value play and I will have exposure in all formats.
J.T. Poston
World Golf Ranking (#63)
Vegas Odds (226/1)
Draftkings ($6,300)
FanDuel ($7,400)
Stars and scrubs is going to be popular this week with the softer pricing and I love the idea of spending right down for Poston. This will be his first Masters which always adds some risk but he does come in with some decent form having made the cut in four straight and six of his last seven events. What really stands out when looking at the form is that he has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five events, three times gained 3.5+ strokes in that area. He has also gained strokes around the green in back to back events and gained strokes putting in four straight and seven of his last eight events. All things considered, Poston is my favorite "scrub" play this week.
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