Week 9 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/5/20

Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 9.

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Titans
Opponent CHI
Titan -3.5
I know the last two weeks have been rough for the Titans with losses to the Steelers and the, ugh Bengals in Week 8. But let’s look a little closer. The Steelers’ loss came down to a missed Gostkowski field goal at the end of regulation. And the Bengals’ game, played in rough weather conditions saw the Titans intercepted in the end zone on their first drive and another missed FG on their second drive. That game should have been much closer.

The Titans have the 4th-ranked offense on the season and are actually the second-best passing attack overall this season. That stands in stark contrast to the Bears who rank 27th on that side of the ball. Deciding who to roll between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky is part of the reason they are struggling and there isn’t a whole lot of hope of getting better.

And sure, on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears have been excellent this season, ranking 6th in DVOA overall and 5th against the pass. But they are worse against the run and its stands to reason the Titans lean on Derrick Henry in this matchup. Plus, the Bears’ defense has slipped over the last couple of weeks as the offense continues struggling to muster any firepower. The Titans take care of business in this game.

Atlanta Falcons
Opponent DEN
Proj Points Falcons -3.5
The Falcons had been losing in increasingly fantastic fashion over a stretch this season. It was really something how they’d pulled out new and creative ways to take the “L”. But things have (sort of) begun turning around in the last few weeks. They have wins over the Vikings and Panthers with a Todd Gurley accidental TD / loss to Detroit jammed in there. That being said, this team is almost definitely better than their 2-6 record suggests and they are 2-1 under Raheem Morris.

Where this comes down to, in some part, is the Falcons are a funnel defense, insanely bad against the pass but actually 8th overall against the run. And Denver would much prefer to run considering they are about league average on the ground and near the bottom of the league through the air.

The come-from-behind win over the Chargers in Week 8 aside, Drew Lock has been decidedly below average this season, completing only 58% of his passes and failing to top 260 yards in any game. The Falcons aren’t good against the pass, but Lock isn’t good at passing. Could see the Falcons run away with this thing.

Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent LV
Chargers PK
Yes, the Chargers are 2-5 this season and things have looked weird at times. But let’s look a little closer. First off, their point differential is -6. That actually ranks 8th in the AFC or middle of the pack. They’ve lost some brutal close games and have also played the Buccaneers, Chiefs and Saints in three of their last five weeks. They hung in all of those games as well before finally getting over the hump against the Bengals in Week 8.

They are particularly good through the air with Justin Herbert under center, ranking 7th in DVOA with the pass. It’s worse on the ground which makes a bit of sense considering their injury situation. But they’ve also been forced to keep it through the air more because of game script.

Meanwhile, the defense has been above average on the year, ranking 15th though slightly better against the pass. But again, this non-schedule adjusted and the Chargers have a tough road of opponents so far this season.

And then there are the Raiders who are coming off the win over the Browns in adverse conditions. Las Vegas has the second-worst defense in the league so far with only the woeful Jaguars behind them. Sure, they are 4-3 but have a -16 point differential, worse than the Chargers on the season despite two more wins. The offense has been fine though much better through the air than on the ground. Simply put, the Chargers are just the better team but are a pick’em at home.