Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Houston Open

Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.

Premium DFSR members get access to my expert sheets as a part of their membership. That's a $10 value every single month, just for signing up for a DFSR membership! Want my sheets on their own? Head on over to my Patreon Page

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

If you listen close enough you can hear Jim Nantz warming up his voice and that means we are only one week away from the Masters. Before we get too excited, however, we have one more warmup event that takes the tour to Texas for the Houston Open.

The event has been played going all the way back to 1970 and has been played at a number of different courses including Champions GC, Westwood CC, Quail Valley GC, TPC Woodlands, and most recently the Golf Club of Houston. This year, the event moves again and will be hosted at Memorial Park Golf Course which has not been used on Tour since back in the 60's. It was completely overhauled in 2019 by Tom Doak with the consultation help of Brooks Koepka. It will play as a Par 70 this week for the pros.

The fairways are smaller than average and while there are only 19 bunkers(post-renovation), trees, undulation, and water in play on four holes will force golfers to really think their way around the course not just bomb and gouge. For fantasy, this opens up the player pool a bit but when targeting shorter hitters, and this can be said for any course, you need to look closely at their iron game specifically from 175-200 and 200+ yards. Even if the longer hitters are playing somewhat conservative and "safe" off the tee, the long irons will be important and there are also three Par 4's of 490 or more yards and three par 3's of 200+ yards.

Overall, I am once again looking for players in form not just with their finishes but also in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green as it should take a complete game to hoist the trophy on Sunday. With that said, let's dig into the picks.

The Course

Memorial Park Golf Course
Par 72 - 7,432 Yards
Greens - Bermuda

Top Stats in the Model

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

What appears to be a positioning course off the tee I will have a 5-10% higher weight on OTT with accuracy being very important.

Strokes Gained: Approach

The approach is always important and this week I will be keying in on long iron proximity ranges from 175-200 and 200+ yards with three par 3's over 200 yards and three Par 4's over 490 yards

Par 4 Scoring

As a Par 70, there is only three Par 5's so a little extra emphasis on the Par 4's and especially ones of 450+ yards

Par 3 Scoring

I don't usually weight Par 3 scoring but there are five this week with three over 200 yards

Putting Performance on Bermuda

Undulated and firm Bermuda greens so bump to those who excel in these conditions

Top Tier Targets

Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Draftkings ($11,500)
FanDuel ($12,200)

I am playing GPP only this week anyway so let's spend all the way up with the World #1. He comes in with elite form with two wins, two runner-ups, and a T6 in his last five events while averaging a Tour-high 105.3 DraftKings points per event. Since missing the cut at the first event back from the COVID break, DJ has gained 2.3 or more strokes on approach in seven of his last nine events and also gained strokes off the tee in eight of those events. Despite a price in its own tier this week, I will be loading up in GPP formats.

Russell Henley
World Golf Ranking (#61)
Vegas Odds (26/1)
Draftkings ($9,400)
FanDuel ($11,200)

There are definitely enough top-tier options to pivot to if you decide to fade DJ and Henley is my favorite in terms of PTS/$ projections. He comes in red-hot with back to back Top 5's and has Top 10's in four of his last six events and no finish worse than T27 in that time. His tee to green game has been money as he ranks 2nd in this field over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC) adn on my sheet he ranks 5th in ball striking, 10th in overall prxoimity, and while he is just average on Par 5's(61st), he is 3rd and 1st in Par 3 and 4 scoring. All things considered, Henley is my favorite PTS/$ play in the top tier and my one and done pick this week. The outright bet at 26-1 is also in play for me this week.

Mid Tier Targets

Si Woo Kim
World Golf Ranking (#88)
Vegas Odds (51/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($10,100)

When researching this course I came across several comparisons to Pete Dye and that immediately took me to Si Woooooooo Kim(Trademark Pat Mayo) which isn't the basis of this pick but it doesn't hurt. What does stands out is the form as he has been very consistent making 12 of his last 13 cuts including T17(CJ Cup) and T8(Shriners) in his last two events. Looking at his current form stats(L24 rounds), he is 4th in this field in tee to green(OTT-24th, APP-33rd, ATG-1st), 4th in opportunities gained, and 11th in birdie or better gained. More than enough for me to include him in my core in all formats this week.

Kevin Streelman
World Golf Ranking (#49)
Vegas Odds (76/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,100)

Streelman is another player who has been consistent lately having made 10 of his last 12 cuts and has also sprinkled in three Top 10's, as well. At these prices, that makes him a great cash game play with upside for GPP, and that upside is tied to his ball-striking. In all three of those Top 10's I mentioned, Streelman had gained strokes both off the tee and on approach and is Top 30 in both fairways gained and SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. Core play for me in all formats.

Value Targets

Adam Schenk
World Golf Ranking (#217)
Vegas Odds (111/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,700)

Schenk is a value play I am more looking to in cash game builds as he has failed to show Top 25 upside but consistently makes cuts. Since going T43, MC, MC when golf returned in June he has put together a streak of 10 straight made cuts and has gained strokes on approach in seven of those. Statistically, there isn't a whole bunch that stands out until we dig deeper and see he has excelled on long 4's(15th in this field), Par 5's(25th in field), and makes birdies(15th in field). The price is right where I will have exposure in all formats.

Matthew NeSmith
World Golf Ranking (#195)
Vegas Odds (111/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,300)

Another value play that comes in Top 30 in my overall model on the back of his stats. He is 12th in SG: Approach, 26th in Ball Striking, 14th and 9th in Par 3 & 4 Scoring, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, and 29th in Birdie or Better %. The form is also trending as he has gone T41(Corales), T17(Sanderson Farms), and T8(Shriners) over his last three events gaining strokes OTT, APP, and putting together in all three. He will also be a core play for me in all formats.