Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes watches during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday, Sept. 9, 2018, in Carson, Calif. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)
On Thursday we gave out New York Giants +5 and the under 44.5 both of which hit. Let’s take a look at some other bets to target going into Week 7.
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Opponent DEN
Chiefs -10, -9.5 in some spots
I know I wrote up earlier in the season that going into Mile High made it a tough cover for road favorites there. The thin air specifically gives opponents trouble. But those opponents aren’t anything like these Chiefs and other iterations of the Broncos haven’t been quite as bad as this group. Despite a rather odd loss to the Raiders on the road in Week 5, the Chiefs came back and handled business against the Bills in Week 6 on a wet and cool evening in Buffalo.
Denver’s been frisky over the last couple of weeks with a surprise win over the Patriots and a rather predictable victory over the Jets. But the Broncos offense is awful, ranking 29th on the season and scoring more than 21 points only once this season (against the Jets). The defense has looked solid (ranked 6th) thanks to an adjusted boost based on their pretty tough schedule to start the season.
This is still the high octane Chiefs who’ve won games by nine or more in four of their first six games. And despite the solid defense relatively speaking, Denver allows the sixth-most opponent plays per game this season. This is a cover for the Chiefs.
Opponent GB
Texans +4
It was a crime against humanity that Houston didn’t cover the +3.5 we had them at last week against Tennessee. They led by seven with 1:50 to go after the Brandin Cooks touchdown. They then allowed a 76-yard drive from Ryan Tannehill to get the Titans tied and headed to overtime. Then they allowed another 82-yard drive in overtime ending in a Derrick Henry touchdown and that was all she wrote. What a mess.
I’m willing to go back to the well here with Houston who’s shown plenty of fight over the last two weeks since firing Bill OBrien. They’ll now face a Green Bay team at home getting points once again. The Packers have been sneaky bad on defense this season, ranking 30th in DVOA and have let it up both on the ground and through the air. They were trounced by Tampa last week.
On offense, both of these teams rank in the top 10 (GB-4th, HOU-8th) and both have faced some of the hardest schedules in the league to start the season. On paper, they are remarkably similar and this game, with Houston at home, should be much closer to a pick-em but the records for each team do tend to swing the difference. Look for a Texans’ cover here.
The Over 57 is also in play here as well considering the defenses are both subpar and the offenses have a lot of firepower.
Opponent CHI
Rams -6
I’m aware that the Bears are 5-1 on the season, first in the NFC North, have defied expectations and are getting six points. But this is a flawed team at best and possibly just an average team (or below) at worst. They have *only* the 12th-best point differential in the NFL despite one of the better records and have just been brutal on offense, ranked 26th overall. They have an impressive win over the Bucs, but the rest of the schedule has been mediocre in terms of opponent.
Meanwhile, the Rams are coming off a bad-ish loss against the 49ers in Week 6 and have made their bones beating up on the NFC East this season. So I get that the -6 looks a bit weird. But the Rams are a much more balanced team on the year, ranking 5th in offensive efficiency and 13th on defense. The Bears just have too big a chasm between the defense’s strengths and the offense’s ineptitude.
And finally, the Bears get dinged a bit here having to travel halfway across the country into Los Angeles for an evening West Coast game.
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