Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 7

The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report.

Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly.

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Quarterback

With a ton of players already ruled out and a bunch more questionable, there is going to be a lot of chalk this week but one position I like making some pivots to differentiate is teh quarterback position.

The Chalk(not in any projected order of own%) - Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert

Let's take a look at a couple of projected low-owned options with big upside.

Patrick Mahomes FD 9000 DK 7400
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 22.91 DK - 23.45

Doug talked about the Chiefs in his Top Bets Article and I am going to parlay that in DFS as I absolutely love Mahomes in GPP this week. I listed six quarterbacks above who are all projected to be higher owned this week and the crazy part is Mahomes is only the third-highest priced on DraftKings(highest priced QB on FanDuel).

I think a lot of people will go back to Clyde Edwards-Helaire after a breakout game and that makes sense but even with that huge game Mahomes still came just shy of 3x on DraftKings last week. There is snow and low temps in the forecast and likely scares people away but I am not concerned at all as Mahomes faced the Broncos team in the snow last December and put up 340 yards and two touchdowns.

It really doesn't feel too risky banking on a former MVP and reigning Super Bowl MVP and I love the upside and especially the possible sub 5% ownership.

Stack with - Travis Kelce, Tyreke Hill 
Run it back with - 

Gardner Minshew II FD 7200 DK 5900
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 19.07 DK - 19.7

We can get even more leverage in the mid-tier as Stafford and Herbert should be the overwhelming chalk in this range. While Mahomes gives us a feeling of "safety" when we roster him, the same cannot be said for Minshew as he is the definition of a GPP play as the performances are usually capped off with garbage time but the good news here is that the Jags have had to throw(66.1%) more than any other team in the league. That is definitely one thing we can bank on with Minshew as he has attempted 40+ passes in five straight games now and the reality here is that he has also hit 3.4x for more on DraftKings in five of six games this season.

The Jags are seven-point favorites here which aligns with a passing game script and they face a Chargers team that has allowed the 4th most passing yards and 3rd most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Stack with - DJ Chark, Keelan Cole, 
Run it back with - Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

Running Back

The Chalk - Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones(if he plays)

James Conner FD 7200 DK 6700
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 15.86 DK - 17.26

Both running backs in this game are going under the radar and while I can make the fade case for Derrick Henry as the Steelers have been elite(#1 in DVOA against the run) against the run, I cannot make the same case for James Conner. He has been under the radar all season despite putting up 100+ yards rushing in three of his last four games and scoring a touchdown in each of those four games, as well.

As for the matchup, the Steelers are slight favorites in this game against the Titans who have allowed the 6th most rushing yards per game(112.4) to running backs and rank 21st in fantasy points against the position. Conner owns a Top 10 projection for a running back in our system and is also projected to have less than 10% ownership once again. I love that combination and will have plenty of Conner in GPP this week.

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