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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 10/6/20
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Pitchers
Max Fried FD - P 8700 DK - SP 7700
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATL
FD - 33.48 DK - 17.61
The Braves come in as -198 favorites over the Marlins on this slate, easily the best moneyline odds of the four-games. Don’t be completely fooled by the 2.25 ERA he sported during his 56 innings this season, the xFIP was in the low 4’s. He has some K stuff, putting down just over eight batters per inning which was down from what he did in 2019. He can get outs because he induced ground balls at a 55% rate this season with a very low 25% flyball rate. The Marlins, while a nice story, had the 21st ranked team xOBA this season and are the worst offense going on this slate. Fried’s price is right and he avoids some of the slate’s bigger bats. 
Framber Valdez FD - P 10000 DK - RP 8900
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 34.14 DK - 18.15
Valdez was excellent in the shortened season, striking out more than a batter an inning and dramatically reducing his walk rate off his career averages. He had a sub-3 xFIP (2.94) which was better than the ERA. The A’s actually ranked 24th in the league against lefty arms this season with a team .301 wOBA in that split. Valdez is a slight +100 underdog here but he has decent K upside if he can hang around the game. 
Catcher/First Base
Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 4200 DK - 1B 5400
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATL
FD - 13.99 DK - 10.51
Sandy Alcantara is getting to start another playoff game despite his team having a -41 run differential this season. He was *fine* in his first game in the first round, but this is very much just an average arm. Meanwhile Freeman crushed an 1.102 OPS this season and will be in the MVP discussion for sure. He walked more than he struck out (17% to 14%) and sported a .456 wOBA. Simply put, he’s one of the best hitters in the game and gets a somewhat choice playoff matchup on the mound here on Tuesday.
As of this writing, San Diego still hadn’t announced who they were putting on the mound. Max Muncy (FD $3600 DK $4800) is coming cheaper on both sites considering pitching doesn’t cost a ton and the Padres are unlikely to throw a lefty up there.
Second Base
José Altuve FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 4300
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 11.35 DK - 8.69
Has he been basically cheating his way to sick numbers over the last few years? Probably. Did he also run bad this season. Yes. Altuve’s career .334 BABIP was about 80 points higher than this season’s .250 number. He was still walking at the same rate, though the strikeouts were up a bit. He was bad, and the pitch stealing was for sure a part of it, but he also isn’t this bad. And we are getting him at a relative discount against the lefty Manaea. 
Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3800 DK - 2B 4900
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATL
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.64
Albies was so good near the end of the season, after coming back from injury, that the Braves moved him up to the cleanup spot near the end of the season. The 23-year-old hit safely in 13 of his last 15 regular season games with four home runs in that stretch. He’s come back and established himself as one of the better young hitters in the league. He isn’t overwhelmingly expensive and should hit fifth in the order on Tuesday.
Shortstop
Marcus Semien FD - SS 2900 DK - SS 3900
Opponent - HOU (Framber Valdez) Park - OAK
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.05
For his career, Semien has been much better against lefties with a .346 wOBA in that split and an .811 OPS. That’s about 100 points higher than what he’s done against righties. This, obviously, isn’t an ideal matchup against Valdez, but I still don’t mind playing Semien hitting in either the leadoff spot or at worst the the two-hole. He’s an especially good price on DraftKings but is a value on both sites. 
Carlos Correa FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4500
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.02
He’s more expensive that Semien and hitting lower in the lineups but I still like Correa as a play. Sure, we had him yesterday against the A’s and we went completely nuts with 2 home runs and a slate-breaking line, but that doesn’t have much to do with this current projection. He should be hitting sixth against the lefty and is still coming at somewhat value prices on this slate.
Third Base
Alex Bregman FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 4500
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 13.3 DK - 9.91
Bregman, like many of his Astro brethren, had a down year compared to the 2018, 2019 campaigns. And we should have seen that coming. But some of his peripherals were still borderline elite. He walked (13%) almost as much as he struck out (14%) and still had an .800 OPS despite a BABIP 40 points under his career average. He’s slaughtered lefty pitching for his career with an absurd 1.010 OPS and .418 wOBA in that split. He’s an easy cash play on this slate.
For our system, Bregman is the far and away play here in cash. But I think you can live with Austin Riley (FD $2800 DK $3000) even if he’s hitting in the 9th spot (in or about) on Tuesday. The matchup is still great and the DraftKings’ price is coming very cheap.
Outfield
Ronald Acuña Jr. FD - OF 4500 DK - OF 5500
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATL
FD - 14.79 DK - 11.22
Marcell Ozuna FD - OF 4100 DK - OF 4900
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATL
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.78
With the position the Braves are in on Tuesday, these two guys could be chalk against Alcantara. They get the best matchup of the day on the mound and these two guys can rake. Acuna put up another bananas season with a casual .987 OPS season thanks to spiking his walk rate to 19% while also keeping up with the power numbers (14 hrs in 202 PAs). He’s just one of the best hitters in baseball and seeing as how pitching doesn’t cost a pretty penny, he’s an easy play.
Meanwhile, Ozuna put up a monster of his is own this year with a 1.067 OPS that was definitely BABIP-driven (.391) but also had him ticking up his walks (14%) and really going nuts on the home runs (18). These guys, and really all of Atlanta are the stacks today and that much is obvious.
Even though I wrote up Valdez against the A’s, I don’t mind some of the bats here with guys like Mark Canha (FD $2900 DK $4000) and Khris Davis (FD $2500 DK $3000) coming very cheap on both sites and on the right side of their splits.
