Week 4 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/1/20

Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom.

Rams - Bills Over 47.5 (W)
Ravens -3.5 (L)
Ravens - Chiefs Over 53.5 (W)
Broncos +6 (L)
Texans +4 (L)
49ers - Giants over 42 (W)

Overall Week 3 Record 3-3
Season Record 10-7

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Dallas Cowboys
Opponent CLE
Cowboys -4.5
It’s been a weird start for the Cowboys this season. They lost a barn-burner against a good Ram’s team, pulled out a shootout against the Falcons who give it up to everyone and then lost to Russell Wilson’s brilliance. Yes, they have a slightly negative point differential, but the two losses don’t look all that bad considering the opponent. I do think better things are in store for them going forward and they get a decent matchup against the Browns this week.

Meanwhile, the Browns lost to the Ravens in Week 1, but then beat a couple of bottom-feeders in the Bengals and Redskins. So evaluating these two teams on strength of schedule would still have the Cowboys with a slight edge. The Cowboys have played the 4th hardest schedule to start the season with the Browns ranked 24th. And between that, and the public nature of the team, you are paying a little bit of a premium to bet on them this week. But that’s just what we’re going to do.

The offense should have very little issue putting up points against a Browns’ defense due for some regression here. And the Cowboys defense has been much better against the run this season compared to the pass which should stymie some of the Browns’ attack.

Chicago Bears
Opponent IND
Bears +2.5
Bears - Colts OVER 43
The Colts are 2-1 though their schedule has been about as easy as it gets with the Jaguars (loss) in Week 1 followed by a stumbling Vikings’ team and the brutal Jets. So sure, 2-1 seems okay but it isn’t like they’ve run the gauntlet.

Meanwhile, the Bears haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row either with wins over the Lions, Giants and Falcons. So while this is a matchup between the number one and number six ranked DVOA defenses so far to start the season, we also know that it isn’t schedule-adjusted yet.

All this being said, the Bears made a quarterback change from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles and instantly upgraded their offense. He wasn’t incredibly efficient, completing only 57% of his passes, but did manage three touchdowns. Another week of reps with the first team, and the ability to utilize Allen Robinson in a more efficient way has me bullish on the offense moving forward compared to where they were with Mitch.

And while I do see them climbing up some in the offensive ranks, its worth mentioning that even against an easy schedule, the Colts are still a below average DVOA on the season. That’s pretty damning considering who they’ve played. Take the Bears and the points.

Raiders
Opponent BUF
Raiders +3
The Bills were one of the preseason darlings and have lived up to expectations so far, starting the season 3-0 though it took a blown lead, mini-comeback and tough interference call late to get out of the game against the Rams in the positive.

The Raiders are 2-1 with a nice win over a tough Saints team but against the Patriots in Week 3 they got rolled in the second half. But there’s reason to believe the Raiders can hang here. For starters, even without fans, home teams are still outscoring opponents by about 1.4 points per game this season. And the Bills defense is a bit suspect, rated 24th in DVOA despite having one of the more favorable schedules to start the season.

There’s also some reason to think he Bills, while a cool story, have played a bit above their heads to start the season with the 28th-ranked strength of schedule through three weeks. Allen has been much more consistent, which definitely helps their offense, but going nearly across the country into Vegas against a team that’s been feisty has me taking the Raiders and the points.

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