(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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The PGA Tour fall season continues this week with a trip to the Country Club of Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship. This event has been played here at this venue since the 2014-15 season when Nick Taylor hoisted the hardware with a winning score of -16.
While the field is stronger than last week's event, we still only get four players(Im, Scheffler, Reavie, Stenson) ranked inside the Top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. This once again presents a challenge as we will be rostering golfers whose price tags are much higher than we normally see. My advice for handling this type of situation would be to remove the name and concentrate on the data to make a decision rather than using biases that we develop throughout the season.
Speaking of the data, this week I am looking at a combination of stats, course history, and of course form. For the stats, the course is fairly straight forward and while the average fairways hit sits just above 55%, the rough is not penal so we can look for the big hitters to let it rip(see Cam Champ in 2018). The biggest thing I am looking at this week is a combination of Strokes Gained: Approach and Birdie or Better %. Breaking that down a bit further, I am looking at Proximity as the greens are fairly easy to hit here(avg 70% GIR last 5 years) and for birdie potential, I like looking at Opportunities gained from Fantasy National Golf Club.
With all that said, let's get into some core plays in each price range.
TPC Southwind
Par 70 - 7,237 Yards
Greens -
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Doc Redman
World Golf Ranking (#85)
Vegas Odds (34/1)
Draftkings ($9,700)
FanDuel ($10,800)
Like I mentioned above, we need to wipe the name away and concentrate on the data this week as we have a ton of players with or close to career-high pricing. This has me starting with Redman(I mean player A) who is one of the best ball strikers on Tour ranking behind only JT, Morikawa, DJ, and Rory last season. Not only do the stats line up but he is coming in with some form with 3rd place finishes in two of his last three events. He made the cut here last year(T52) and I see a big improvement this time around as the above-average putting performances have been much more consistent lately. Redman is my top play in all formats.
Adam Long
World Golf Ranking (#60)
Vegas Odds (31/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FanDuel ($10,700)
I was very close to writing up Scottie Scheffler in this spot as I have already mentioned him as my breakout player of the year, but I just can't justify that enormous price tag, at least in cash games. My GPP exposure will solely depend on ownership projections come Wednesday night(hit me up in chat).
This brings me to Adam Long who has been one of the more consistent players in this field having made the cut in seven straight events. He was also in a great spot to hoist the hardware last week with a two-stroke lead going into Sunday but struggled and ended up fifth. I personally feel that drivers him back into contention in another weak-field event and the stats back it up as he ranks(in this field) 28th in SG: APP, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, and 10th in DK points gained since the return of golf back in June. All things considered, I feel he has a safe floor in this field combined with winning upside and is fairly priced on both sites.
Emiliano Grillo
World Golf Ranking (#152)
Vegas Odds (51/1)
Draftkings ($8,800)
FanDuel ($9,900)
Ball striking is a common theme in my articles and in the DFS golf world in general and we can't have that conversation without talking about Emiliano Grillo. He comes in having gained strokes off the tee and on approach in five straight events and ranks 2nd in this field in ball striking since the return of golf. This did not lead to much success when golf first returned(missed 4 of 6 cuts & T39/T60 in other two events) but he has really turned it around making five straight coming into this week.
While paying anything over $7K feels crazy for Grillo, consider he has been $1,000 more in each of his last two fall events and is now in the sub $9K range. I like the floor at that price for cash games considering his elite ball-striking and if he can drop some putts this week, the PTS/$ upside is also there.
Cameron Davis
World Golf Ranking (#208)
Vegas Odds (56/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($9,400)
I use multiple models each week when forming my core plays and one player who stands out in almost every single one is Cameron Davis. He missed the cut here in his first trip back in 2018 but rebounded with a T28 last year and comes into this week with some nice form having made four straight cuts(T36, T29, T15, T12). Looking at the stats rankings since the return of golf, he also ranks 10th/5th in par 4 & 5 scoring, 4th in birdie or better %, and 2nd in DraftKings scoring. This feels like a very fair price this week putting Davis in play in all formats.
Cameron Percy
World Golf Ranking (#307)
Vegas Odds (111/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,600)
There is a good chance Percy is one of the top owned plays this week and that is driven by more than one area. Let's start with course history as he has made the cut in four straight including an impressive T11 last year where he gained 6.2 strokes on approach(4th best in the field). There is always a risk of a WD as he had been dealing with a rib injury since July(2 WDs down the stretch) but he appears to be fine considering he has opened the season with T23 and T8 at two weak-field events. I look for Percy to continue his hot run making him a top PTS/$ value play for me this week and in play in all formats.
For more cash, gpp, and value plays make sure to get a copy of my DFS PGA cheatsheet available on the "Chris's Sheets Page".
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