Categories: NFL Betting

Week 3 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 9/24/20 – Ravens and Broncos look to have value.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs with the ball in the second half of an NFL wild card playoff football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Jan. 6, 2019, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Week 3 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 9/24/20

Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom.

Cardinals -6.5 (W)
Vikings +3 (L)
Giants-Bears Over 43 (L)
Panthers +9 (L - This one was brutal)
Dolphins +6 (W)
Chargers +9 (W)
Patriots-Seahawks Over 45 (W)
Saints-Raiders Over 48.5 (W)

Overall Week 2 Record 5-3
Season Record 7-4

Also check out our Week 3 cash game plays as well as our Week 3 injury breakdown.

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Baltimore Ravens
Opponent KC
BAL -3.5
OVER 53.5 (-115)
The Ravens have picked up this regular season right where they left off last year: dominating. They are already +49 on the season through two games, 19 points better than the next-closest team. Sure, it was the Browns and Texans, though I’d contend those aren’t really bottom-feeders. The Ravens have just had no issues making easy work of mostly everyone over their last 18 regular-season games.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs came out gunning to start the season against the aforementioned Texans, but barely squeaked out a victory over Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2. It took overtime, a stop and a long field goal to bring home the W. This bet isn’t an overreaction to that performance, but rather some recognition that Baltimore has a gameplan which is problematic for the Chiefs. Namely, they can control the ball for long stretches and KC hasn’t solved one of their bigger “weaknesses” from last season: stopping the run.

Expect Lamar Jackson and company to keep the ball on the ground consistently with a lot of different looks. KC allowed 167 yards on the ground to the Chargers in Week 2 and 124 to Houston in Week 1 on close to six yards per carry. But even that said, there are still a lot of paths to hitting the over as well. A tight game almost assuredly has both teams keeping their feet on the proverbial gas and it stands to reason KC will want to air it out to keep the pressure on the Baltimore attack to take it to the air.

Broncos
Opponent TB
Boncos +6

Over the last two+ seasons, the average away team score when coming into Denver is a meager 18.8 points. Part of that is a solid Denver defense in the last couple of years, but it’s also just really tough to fly in and play in the Denver altitude. The Broncos want to grind things our and wear other teams down.

This could be a tougher trip for Tom Brady and company who got waxed by New Orleans in Week 1 and pulled out a victory against a very bad Panthers team in Week 2. Brady’s been merely *meh* in his first two TB starts completing passes at only a 65% rate which ranks him 20th in the league through the first two weeks. His 1:1 TD:INT rate isn’t promising while the Average Intended Air Yards and Completed Air Yards are simply middle of the pack. And the offense as a whole has been below average (by DVOA) to start the season.

Meanwhile, even without Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton, the Broncos hung with the Steelers on the road in Week 2 by trying to control the clock (they had a better time of possession that PIT) and running the ball 26 times. We should see more of the same.

But here's the big thing, over the last three seasons, road favorites heading into Denver are 5-8 against the spread with the Broncos winning 5 of those games outright. This isn’t to use past performances as a marker for future success, but more to point out that going into Denver is just tough. I think this line of built on the back of Tom Brady and the Broncos without Lock, but I don’t think the latter’s game plan is all that adversely affected. Pick the Broncos to cover.

Bills
Opponent LAR

Rams
Opponent BUF
OVER 47.5

Buffalo hung 27 on the Jets in Week 1 and then 31 on the Dolphins in Week 2. Sure, it’s two bottom-feeding teams but the way they did it is the intriguing thing. Last season Josh Allen averaged a paltry 29 passing attempts per game, hinging somewhat on the Bills working to get the corpse of Frank Gore “going” early. This season Allen came out of the gate with 35 attempts against the Jets and then followed it up with 45 against the Dolphins. Last season, the Bills had a 52/48 pass/run ratio. This season it’s 60/40 with Allen also making up a lot of the rushing attempts. They’ve run the 7th most plays from scrimmage this season and this pace is ahead of what they did last year.

Meanwhile, the Rams are playing the 8th-fastest pace and just put up 37 points on the Eagles. Seeing as how 66% of overs have hit this season across the two weeks, maybe betting the over here sight unseen is just the play. But the average over/under did tick up across books this week. What gives me a little pause with the Rams is how much they’ve leaned on the run this year with a 58/42 run/pass split. That’s a clock grinder for sure. But they’ve also played teams in advantageous situations. That isn’t likely to be the case her going across the country to Buffalo. It’s going to be tough getting into a barn burner with new-look Bills.

Want more betting picks for this week's games? We'll be giving them out in our Member's Only Chatroom leading up to game time.