St. Louis Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt bats during the third inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves Sunday, May 26, 2019, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
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Opponent - MIL (Adrian Houser) Park - CIN
FD - 40.93 DK - 22.35
Wednesday brings us a ton CY Young candidates and with Shane Bieber in a tougher matchup against the White Sox, I will defer to Trevor Bauer as my top option. Not a bad secondary option as Bauer is having a career-year as he enters this game with a 1.80 ERA/3.31 xFIP and has also flashed his elite upside with a 35% K rate. In his final regular season start, he opens a -154 favorite against a Brewers bottom 10 offense that strikes out over 26% of the time on the season. Bauer is my top pitcher on the early slate(FanDuel) and a top option overall when looking at raw points projections.
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - MIN
FD - 44.54 DK - 24.87
While Shane Bieber is pretty much a lock to win the AL Cy Young award, Kenta Maeda sure made a case for himself on his new team in 2020. Through 10 starts, he has gone 5-1 with a very impressive 2.52 ERA which is backed up by a 2.73 xFIP and he has also flashed some big upside lately with seven or more strikeouts in six straight starts(31.6% K rate on the season). On Wednesday, he gets a terrific home matchup against a Tigers team that ranks bottom 10 in almost every offensive category and have been even worse lately with a .261 wOBA and 66 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Fire up Maeda in all formats.
Opponent - TEX (Wes Benjamin) Park - ARI
FD - 8.9 DK - 6.7>
The Diamondbacks aren't a team I go out of the way to stack but love some of the value pieces that we can target allowing us to pay up for pitchers(two on DK) and more bats. One of those values is Christian Walker who has been average on the season(.280/.343/.477 slash line) but comes in hot with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games with eight runs scored. At these prices and hitting third in the lineup, Walker is in play in all formats.
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.74
I am a sucker for punishment targeting these non-playoff teams who have struggled all season but I just can't ignore Goldy in this matchup. The Cards offensive woes are most definitely not on Goldschmidt as he is having another solid season hitting over .300 with an elite .396 wOBA and 152 wRC+. What really stands out tonight is the matchup against a lefty as he has posted a .405 wOBA, 155 wRC+, and .306 ISO in the split since the start of last season. All things considered, Goldy is a top first basemen on Wednesday.
Opponent - SEA (Nick Margevicius) Park - SEA
FD - 8.34 DK - 6.53
It is never a problem for the Nats letting go of players due for big contracts(ie. Rendon) as they are tremendous at finding and developing youth and Luis Garcia is just another example of that. The 20-year-old made the leap from AA straight to the majors and has impressed hit .306 over his first 33 games(114 AB) and comes in hot with hits in seven of his last nine games. He is best used as a punt on the FanDuel early slate where he is just $2,300 but is also in the conversation for all other slates, as well.
Opponent - NYM (Michael Wacha) Park - NYM
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.51
The Rays have the best record in the American League and it has been a joint effort as both their offense and pitching sit top 10 overall. On the offensive side, Brandon Lowe has been the captain of the ship as he sits 3rd in average(.271) and 1st in wOBA(.389), wRC+(153), home runs(13), RBI(33), and runs scored(33) among those Rays with 100+ at-bats. He gets a ton of opportunity hitting at the top of the lineup and also gets a great matchup vs. Michael Wacha(6.75 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 19% HR/FB rate). I look for the Rays to keep rolling and Lowe is my favorite all-around play at the second base position.
**Update - At the time of writing this article, there are conflicting reports on the Mets starter. If it is lefty Steven Matz, fire up Mike Brosseau who has crushed lefty pitching. Lowe would still be in play and lower owned, as well.*
Opponent - TEX (Wes Benjamin) Park - ARI
FD - 7.56 DK - 5.78
Back to the Diamondbacks for more value on a slate we are going to need it more than ever with so many elite pitchers and expensive bats in play. Ahmed hits down in the order most of the time but comes very cheap on both sites and has been an excellent source of PTS/$ value lately with hits in nine of his last 10 games. He has also been very efficient against soutpaw pitching posting a .366 wOBA and 126 wRC+ since the start of last season. At these prices, he will be in my player pool in all formats.
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 9.87 DK - 8.86
While it's only 123 at-bats in a covid-shortened season, Miguel Rojas seems to have taken huge strides in 2020. Bouncing around the batter order has not affected him one bit as he entered Tuesday with a .343 averare and 172 wRC+ but more impressive have been his ability to hit lefties. Again, small sample size but he has 17 hits in 31 at-bats(.548 average)! The matchup isn't great against max Fried but shortstop is a tough position if not paying up for the cream of the crop so I am willing to take a shot with Rojas in all formats.
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.52
The Cardinals offense has been one of the lowest-scoring teams in 2020 which has me avoiding the stack but I do love the value we can often get in the right matchups. One of those is tonight for Tommy Edman who went into Tuesday night with hits in nine straight and has been hitting at or near the top of the lineups all season. He is a switch hitter and more good news as he has been better vs. lefties with a .460 wOBA and 194 wRC+. Best of all, he faces Danny Duffy who has given up 6+ earned runs in two of his last three starts and multiple home runs in three of his last four. All things considered, Edman is a top PTS/$ play for me in all formats.
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - PIT
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.25
One of the themes of this article has been targeting value bats on struggling teams and Hayes is another one of those, at least on DraftKings. Like I mentioned the other day, he is a former first-round pick who has progressed quickly and comes into tonight with hits in 15 of his first 19 major league games and has also flashed upside with three home runs. The matchup isn't great but the price in DraftKings wins out here making him a nice one-off play in cash games to save some salary at the position if needed.
Opponent - SEA (Nick Margevicius) Park - SEA
FD - 14.66 DK - 11
It has been a rough season for the Astros offensively but hopefully they all pick up what George Springer has been laying down. Overall, it has been a down season for Springer but he is getting hot at the right time heading into playoffs and has posted an elite .419 wOBA and 173 wRC+ in the month of September. He gets a plus matchup vs. Nick Margevicius, is fairly priced on both sites, and hits leadoff. That is more than enough to include him in my core for tonight in all formats.
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - MIN
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.08
The Twins are in a nice spot offensively tonight in a matchup against rookie Casey Mize who is having somewhat of a rocky start allowing multiple earned runs in all six starts. For me, Byron Buxton is at the top of the exposure list and for multiple reasons starting with the fact he has been hitting leadoff since Friday of last week and is still underpriced on both sites. He has also been hot at the plate, as well, with hits in six straight and 11 of his last 13 games going into Tuesday night. As long as he remains in the leadoff spot, he is a top PTS/$ option in the outfield in all formats.
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