DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/21/20

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Pitchers

Luis Castillo FD - P 10200 DK - 9800
Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - CIN
FD - 37.17 DK - 19.43

With Jacob deGrom pulled with a hamstring strain in his last start and likely still not 100% tonight, it makes the decision at the top fairly straight forward here with Luis Castillo. He is coming off arguably his best start of the season holding the Pirates to three over seven innings while striking out 10 and walking just one. Not only is the 3.03 ERA on the season impressive but his xFIP(2.84) is actually lower really backing up this solid season. Tonight the Reds are only slight -124 favorites but the Brewers have only been slightly above league average in wOBA and wrC+ and strike out 26% of the time overall(27% vs. RH pitching). Fire up Castillo in all formats.

Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 8700 DK - SP 8300
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 34.42 DK - 18.33

From a PTS/$ perspective, McCullers sits right at the top of the rankings on both sites as he checks almost every box. He and the Astros are -145 favorites in a game that has the second-lowest total(8.0) on the slate facing a Mariners team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in almost every offensive category for the season and over the last couple weeks. For McCullers, he is also coming off his best start of the season holding the Rangers to just two hits over seven innings, striking out eight and walking none. He is my top SP2 on DraftKings with Castillo and also in play on FanDuel if you want to go with a bats-heavy build.

Catcher/First Base

Luke Voit FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - TOR (Matt Shoemaker) Park - TOR
FD - 9.49 DK - 7.12

The Yankees are finally getting healthy and that is a scary thought considering how they have performed without Stanton and Judge in the lineup. It comes down to other players stepping up and Luke Voit has done just that and is having a monster season hitting .286 with 21 home runs and 49 RBI in his first 49 games. To put that into perspective, he had just 21 home runs and 62 RBI all of last season(118 games). What stands out the most tonight for the Yankees is the matchup against Jays pitching that given up an insane 22 home runs and 55 earned runs over the last seven games. The Yankees are easily a top team and Voit is my top first basemen on the slate.

Jacob Stallings FD - C 2300 DK - C 2600
Opponent - CHC (Jon Lester) Park - PIT
FD - 6.23 DK - 5.28

When playing cash games on DraftKings, I am always looking to punt the catcher spot, and tonight I am looking at Jacob Stallings. While he isn't a top tier catcher in terms of hitting, he has held his own with a .259 average but the main reason I turn to him are the splits as he is much better vs. lefties with a .373 wOBA and 133 wRC+. That is more than enough for me to fit Stallings into my cash game lineup allowing me to pay up for multiple pitchers and still get enough bats.

Second Base

Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3900 DK - 2B 5100
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - ATL
FD - 10.91 DK - 8.38

The Braves are at the top of my list of teams to target on Monday as they sit #1 in implied runs in a plus matchup vs. rookie Trevor Rogers who has given up 14 earned runs(5 HR) in his first five starts. The price is a little higher than I would like for Albies but we have some very affordable pitching making it much easier to target the Braves. Since returning to the lineup, Albies has hits in nine of 11 games with five multi-hit efforts, three doubles, and four home runs. He is also starting to climb up the batting order which adds a ton of value. All things considered, he is in play in all formats tonight.

Kolten Wong FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernandez) Park - KC
FD - 11.45 DK - 8.82

From a value perspective, the system loves the Cardinals tonight and it makes sense as they are one of the teams projected to score five or more runs. Wong isn't a player that is going to win you a GPP very often but is more of an "opportunity meets price" kind of play as he has been hitting leadoff and has a hit in 11 of his last 12 starts. There is a good chance he shows up as the second base play in the system by lock and I am on board in cash games.

Shortstop

Paul DeJong FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernandez) Park - KC
FD - 11.6 DK - 8.76
Adalberto Mondesi FD 2800 DK 4600
Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 9.45 DK - 7.34

At shortstop, I am on board with both options in this Cardinals/Royals game as both come with very attractive prices on both sites. Let's start with DeJong who the system really likes tonight as he is currently in a majority of our optimized lineups. It really comes down to the spot for the Cards as they sit with over five implied runs in a plus matchup against a rookie pitcher without overpowering stuff. The Cards have been the better team and are in the better spot so DeJong is my top choice in cash games tonight. For Mondesi, it has been a season to forget with an average below the Mendosa Line but he does get the opportunity hitting second in the lineup and is a nice piece of a two-man stack with the consistent Whit Merrifield. Shortstop is a tough position tonight so take the savings and move on.

Third Base

Tommy Edman FD - 3B 2900 DK - 3B/OF 4700
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernandez) Park - KC
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.84

The Cardinals are getting hot at the right time entering the final week of the regular season sitting 2nd in the NL Central just 3.5 games behind the Cubs. The offense has been a disappointment overall but a driving force in the win streak as they have scored five or more runs in three fo those four games. Like the offense, Edman's stats(.266/.339/.391 slash line) don't jump off the page but he does come in with hits in eight straight and 12 of his last 14 games. Best of all he hits 2nd in the lineup ahead of Goldschmidt creating a ton of run-scoring opportunities. He is in play for me in all formats tonight with his best value coming on FanDuel in the sub $3K range.

Ke'Bryan Hayes FD - 3B 3300 DK - 3B 3600
Opponent - CHC (Jon Lester) Park - PIT
FD - 9.32 DK - 7.25

Back to the Pirates for value, at least on DraftKings where his price has yet to catch up with the performance. He was a 1st round pick back in 2015 and while it took a pandemic for him to finally break through to the majors, he is making the most of it hitting with hits in 13 of his first 17 games(.310 average) with nine extra-base hits(4 doubles, two triples, three home runs). He has also quickly made his way up the lineup and has been hitting 2nd for five straight games. I would probably reserve him to GPP only on FanDuel but on DraftKings, at his price, he is in play in all formats as a top PTS/$ value on the slate.

Outfield

Ronald Acuña Jr. FD - OF 4500 DK - OF 5900
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - ATL
FD - 15.5 DK - 11.76
Marcell Ozuna FD - OF 4200 DK - OF 5000
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - ATL
FD - 13.67 DK - 10.35
Adam Duvall FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - ATL
FD - 11.58 DK - 8.65

I mentioned the Braves as my top team to target above and there is no better place to get your exposure than in the outfield. They have three strong options and the best part is they come at different price points. If you have the salary, Ronal Acuna is the top target but GPP only for me tonight as he has struggled a bit on 2020 with a low .250 average and troublesome 29% K rate. He still has elite upside, however, and is likely lower owned with his slate-high price tag.

For cash games, I am focusing more on the Ozuna and Duvall who are both having exceptional seasons for the Braves. Ozuna came over on a one-year deal in the offseason and is everything the Braves were looking for as he entered Sunday with a career-high .313/.402/.596 slashline and has absolutely destroyed lefty pitching to the tune of a .552 wOBA and 250 wRC+. Duvall has been quite as good against lefties but still well above average(.386 wOBA, 141 wRC+) and has a whopping 11 home runs in the month of September.

Corey Dickerson FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Huascar Ynoa) Park - ATL
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.96

For value in the outfield, Corey Dickerson shows up very high in the PTS/$ ranking and I am on board as he is another opportunity play hitting leadoff for a Marlins team in the center of a playoff race. Overall, he is only hitting .253 on the season but has been much better down the stretch with hits in 14 of his last 18 days(.299) with three home runs and 13 runs scored. He is in the conversational in cash games on both sites.

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