DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 9/19/20

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Friday's slate was full of big production and it was a solid day here at DFSR. Things are going to get tougher and tougher as the season finishes though and it should make for some fascinating slates. With that in mind, let's go ahead and get into it!

Pitchers

Andrew Heaney FD - P 8500 DK - SP 8300
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - LAA
FD - 35.87 DK - 19.81

This price really surprised me. Heaney was my first inclination before I even opened up DraftKings and I figured he'd be about $10,000. I was obviously ecstatic to see that he was sitting around $8,500 on both sites, in the best matchup possible. We'll start with that opposition, with the Rangers sitting 29th in both wOBA and OBP while scoring the fewest runs in the league. That's brilliant news for a guy like Heaney, who's got a 2.36 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 rate over his last four starts.

Charlie Morton FD - P 7600 DK - SP 7400
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 37.28 DK - 20.49

It's strange to see Morton priced so cheaply. The reason for that is because he just came off the IL and has been seeing limited pitch counts since then. The good news for us is that he's approaching a full workload, throwing 77 pitches in his last start against Boston. That means we could be looking at somewhere between 80-90 pitches here which is all we can hope for from a guy this talented. We're talking about a dude who posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP last season, striking out 240 batters across 194.2 innings of action. That's fantastic news when you consider that Baltimore has lost nine of their last 11 games, scoring one run or fewer in seven of those. That has Tampa enters this matchup as a -185 favorite.

Catcher/First Base

Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 5700
Opponent - NYM (David Peterson) Park - NYM
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.65

This guy is absolutely ridiculous right now. Over his last 27 games played, Freeman has a .420 OBP, .532 OBP, .780 SLG and 1.312 OPS. That doesn't even take into consideration his three hits and two doubles on Friday, making him the hottest hitter in baseball. Its certainly not a matchup we're concerned with either, with Peterson amassing a 5.51 xFIP and 1.31 WHIP this season. Some might be concerned with the fact that Freeman is facing a lefty but splits aren't really a big deal for someone this talented.

Brad Miller FD - 1B 3000 DK - 2B/SS 4200
Opponent - PIT (Mitch Keller) Park - PIT
FD - 10.33 DK - 7.78

The Cardinals always seem to find these scraps of trash and turn them into treasures. That's certainly what they've done with Miller, providing the best two-year stretch of his career. Since the beginning of last season, Miller has a .352 OBP, .541 SLG and .892 OPS. That's the guy Seattle fans wanted to see years ago and it's put him in the heart of this lineup. What really adds to his intrigue is the fact that he gets to face a righty, with Miller amassing a .390 OBP and .915 OPS against them so far this season. That definitely makes him attractive against a pitcher who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.79 WHIP for his career.

If you're in need of a catcher on DraftKings, don't forget about Travis d'Arnaud against a lefty.

Second Base

Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3500 DK - 2B 4500
Opponent - NYM (David Peterson) Park - NYM
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.15

If we like Freeman, we have to like Albies as well. Just like Freddie, Albies is scraping the lettering off the ball right now. In fact, he's got four homers, 10 runs scored, 11 RBI and three steals over his last nine games played. That makes this price tag hard to understand and it's even more mind-boggling when you consider Albies splits. Since 2018, Ozzie's got a .346 AVG, .583 SLG and .954 OPS against left-handed pitching. If there's a criticism to be had of this play it's that Albies has been batting toward the bottom of the order, but there should be at-bats aplenty against Peterson and the Mets' bullpen tonight.

José Altuve FD - 2B 3100 DK - 2B 3800
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - HOU
FD - 11.94 DK - 9.14

Altuve hasn't given us much reason to use him this season but he's simply too good of a player to be this cheap. We're talking about a perennial All-Star who has a .322 BA, .377 OBP, .489 SLG and .865 OPS since 2014. That's a sustained period of success and two bad months isn't going to make me fade him at this price. The thing that really makes me believe that he can snap out of it here is the matchup, squaring off against Luke Weaver and his 6.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD - SS 4400 DK - SS 5500
Opponent - LAD (Clayton Kershaw) Park - COL
FD - 12.81 DK - 9.69

We're going to be a little bit contrarian here. Many people like to fade Kershaw whenever he's one the slate but no one is immune to Coors Field. In 22 starts in Coors Field, Kershaw has a 4.60 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. That's not the guy we're used to seeing and it definitely makes the Rockies bats an interesting pivot with their implied run total north of five. The main piece of the stack would definitely be Story. Since 2018, Story has a .320 AVG, .384 OBP, .659 SLG and 1.043 OPS at home and a .324 AVG, .393 OBP, .633 SLG and 1.026 OPS against left-handers in that same span.

Corey Seager FD - SS 4300 DK - SS 5300
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi González) Park - COL
FD - 16.98 DK - 12.85

Seager found his way into our article on Friday and we're going right back to the well after another successful outing. The reason for that is because he gets to face a righty in Coors Field. This happens to be a Dodgers team projected for seven runs and that definitely makes Seager a spectacular option. For the year, Seager is generating a .309 AVG, .602 SLG and .959 OPS. He's actually always been dominant against righties, totaling an OPS north of .900 against them since 2018. All of that is horrendous news for Chi Chi Gonzalez, who's got a 6.10 ERA and 1.68 WHIP since his rookie season.

Third Base

Manny Machado FD - 3B 4000 DK - 3B 5400
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 12.62 DK - 9.54

Manny, oh Manny! This guy looked a little bit lost at the beginning of the season but a game-winning hit about a month ago has completely turned his season around. In fact, Machado has 11 homers and 43 RBI over his last 28 games, providing an OBP just shy of .450 in that span. That's the stud we remember from his Baltimore days and it's clear that he's ready to carry the load with Tatis struggling. Getting to face a lefty might be the best part of this play though, with Manny tallying a .307 AVG, .391 OBP, .592 SLG and .983 OPS against southpaws since 2018.

Jedd Gyorko FD - 3B 2600 DK - 1B 3700
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - MIL
FD - 11.84 DK - 8.93

Gyorko just continues to find his way into these articles because these DFS sites continue to price him poorly. After getting on base another four times on Friday, Gyorko now has a .282 AVG, .375 OBP, .590 SLG and .965 OPS for the season. That makes these price tags absolutely mind-blowing and it doesn't even take into consideration his fantastic splits. In nearly 50 at-bats against lefties this season, Jedd has a .396 OBP, .711 SLG and 1.106 OPS. All of this is rough for Bubic's 1.45 WHIP and inexperience at this level.

Outfield

Cody Bellinger FD - OF 4400 DK - 1B/OF 5600
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi González) Park - COL
FD - 19.41 DK - 14.48

We really want to exploit the Rockies on this slate. As someone who follows them regularly and lives in Denver, I can tell you that this team has given up. That's evident when you see their 2-8 record over their last 10 games and when you see the 15 runs dropped by LA on Friday. Bellinger was a major part of that onslaught, collecting three hits and his first dinger in weeks, after getting on-base three times the night prior. Facing crappy pitching in Coors Field is just the way to get the 2019 MVP going, particularly when he gets to face a righty. In over 100 at-bats in Coors Field, Bellinger's got a .429 OBP, .625 SLG and 1.054 OPS.

Avisaíl García FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 3100
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - MIL
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.38

It's strange to see Garcia batting leadoff but here we are in 2020. Finding someone priced this cheaply batting leadoff is enough incentive to use him, especially against a guy who never pitched above Double-A before this season. When you dive deeper into the numbers, it's easy to see why the Brewers put him atop their lineup, with Garcia owning a .374 OBP this season. That doesn't even include the fact that he gets the platoon advantage against Bubic, accruing a ,368 BA, .510 OBP and 1.115 OPS against southpaws so far this season.

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo FD - OF 2700 DK - 3B/OF 2800
Opponent - BAL (Jorge Lopez) Park - BAL
FD - 12.71 DK - 9.51

Anytime you can find a valuable hitter below $3K on both sites, you have to keep them in consideration. While the numbers may not look to pretty from Tsutsugo, his .392 OBP and .933 OPS at the minor league shows the sort of potential he possesses. What I really like is that he hit leadoff on Friday and if he does that again here, Tsutsugo would be one of the best values on the board. Good luck finding another leadoff hitter who's below $3K that faces a pitcher with a 5.80 ERA and 1.47 WHIP for his career. Not to mention, he gets the platoon advantage from the left side.

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