Week 2 NFL Betting Strategy 9/17/20

Last week we gave out three bets in our Member’s only chat. BAL -7.5 (W), LAR +2.5 (W) and CAR +130 .5 units (L). This week let’s put some of them live.

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Arizona Cardinals
Opponent WAS
ARI -6.5
Arizona handled some business on Sunday, taking down the 49ers on the road in one of the bigger upsets of opening weekend. Though was it really all that surprising? This is a team that worked to upgrade a major area of need (WR) in the offseason while giving up a guy who basically dragged them down while on the field (David Johnson). It was almost additional by subtraction just on the DJ part but they also got back a top 3 WR in football for their efforts. It paid off.

Kyler Murray was even freer to be a playmaker with the Hopkins threat looming and a full season of Kenyan Drake is also a major upgrade. All of this plus they handled a major area of weakness, defending the pass, against an admittedly beat-up 49ers’ WR group.

And the run defense was strong, holding Raheem Mostert to 3.7 yards per carry (15/56) after he finished at a 5.6 YPC clip in 2019.

Meanwhile, Washington pulled off an upset win over the Eagles in Week 1 thanks in large part to continually pressuring a foot-in-cement Carson Wentz and facing an Eagles’ team that played with its third-string RB from the second quarter on.

Dwayne Haskins was still a moderate mess (17/31 for 178 yards) and the running game averaged a putrid 2.2 yards per carry on 36 attempts. Washington is still a bad team and now need to fly across the country to play the Cardinals. This line appears a little too built on Washington's Week 1 win. 

Minnesota Vikings
Opponent IND
Bet: Minnesota +3, Minnesota +142 (.5 units)
What exactly did we see from the Colts that rate them as a three-point favorite against anyone, even if it is at home in Week 2? They lost Marlon Mack with an Achilles tear, admittedly not a line mover but not all that great from a top-down perspective. And they are coming off a Week 1 loss to a team who everyone universally agreed (except for them I suppose) would be the worst team in football this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The defense looked rough, allowing Gardner Minshew to complete 19/20 passes and three touchdowns, and Phillip Rivers, while efficient at a 78% completion percentage also threw two picks to a garbage defense.

I’m still very much in wait and see on new quarterback situations considering only Cam Newton pulled off a win over an incumbent in Week 1 and that was against the Dolphins. (Tyrod beat Burrow, but that’s a wash).

Meanwhile, the Vikings looked good in the opening drive, but took a brutal safety on their second drive, followed with a punt and then an interception eventually falling down 22-10 at halftime. Things started to click in the second half, but it was too little too late. Our system likes a bounce-back game from Minnesota while not fully believing the Colts actually have the goods or that Phillip Rivers has fundamentally improved their offensive attack at all.

Even on the road, the +3 for Minnesota appears to be good value with the +142 outright very much on the table as well.
 

Carolina Panthers
Opponent TB
Panthers +9
Tampa Bay getting this many points, even at home feels borderline insane. They are coming off a Week 1, 11-point loss to the Saints in which Tom Brady looked every part a 43-year-old quarterback even with the hyped weapons around him. He completed 64% of his passes, threw some rough picks (including a pick-six), and couldn’t get much of anything going on the ground. Now maybe you want to say a somewhat fluky pick six and a blocked FG have this game looking much closer and that would be somewhat fair, but it wasn’t like the Bucs looked like worldbeaters.

Meanwhile, the Panthers their first Teddy Bridgewater game against the Raiders in a higher-scoring 34-30 affair. Carolina was driving to take the lead until they curiously gave the ball to Alex Armah on a 4th and 1 instead of, you know, Christian McCaffrey or Bridgewater. Whatever the case, there wasn’t much of an issue scoring points for Carolina and that’s a decent part of the implied cover here. While the defense is still going to struggle this season, the offense should continue to improve with really good weapons and a competent signal-caller under center (unlike last season). 

The Tampa Bay defense is still mostly a unit that finished as a top third group in terms of DVOA in 2019, but the offense could stagnate even knowing Jameis and his incessant interceptions are gone. We like the Carolina road cover. 

Want more betting picks for this week's games? We'll be giving them out in our Member's Only Chatroom leading up to game time. 

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