DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/17/20

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Pitchers

Shane Bieber FD - P 11900 DK - SP 10900
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET
FD - 45.82 DK - 25.64

Pitching is pretty straight forward tonight and it starts with odds on favorite to win the Cy Young, Shane Bieber. It has been incredible what he has been doing in 2020 as he not only leads the entire league in ERA(1.53) and xFIP(1.95) but also leads all pitchers with an insane 41.3% K rate. He now gets an elite matchup vs. the Tigers who rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories including strikeouts as they K 27% of the time overall and 28% against right-handed pitching. Fire up Bieber in all formats.

Dakota Hudson FD - P 8700 DK - RP 8200
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT
FD - 29.54 DK - 14.07

While Hudson doesn't provide elite upside in terms of strikeouts(21.7% K rate), he has been very solid in his second season a starter. Through seven starts, he has gone 3-2 while holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. Another positive here is the growth throughout the season as he failed to make it through five innings in his first three starts but has averaged six innings per start over his last four. The icing on the cake here is the matchup against the Pirates who sit dead last in runs-scoring(3.6 per game), wOBA(.276), and second to last in wRC+(71). Like I mentioned yesterday, I like to keep my SP's combined salary under $20K and pairing Hudson and Bieber accomplishes this tonight.

Catcher/First Base

Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4600
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.23

The decision at the top is very close on DraftKings as Luke Voit has put the Yankees on his back but the slight discount can make all the difference in the world tonight if we are paying up for two pitchers. Goldy has once again been the face of consistency as he entered Wednesday hitting .314 with an elite .412 wOBA and 162 wRC+ and hitting lefty pitching has been his bread and butter tallying a .420 wOBA and 164 wRC+ since the start of last season. The Cards are a Top 5 offensive target on this slate and Goldy is in play in all formats.

Nate Lowe DK - 1B/3B 3300
Opponent - BAL (Dean Kremer) Park - BAL
FD - 9.47 DK - 7.18

This is a DraftKings-only play tonight and probably best in GPP as the game will be only seven innings as a part of a double-header. I do think we can get away with it in cash for a couple of reasons starting with the price point in the low $3K range combined with the form as he has hits in four of his last five games and was moved up to the cleanup spot last night. Stay tuned for lineups as he would definitely be cash playable if back in that spot in the order tonight.

**Update - DraftKings has removed this game from the main slate so this play is showdown only now**

Second Base

José Altuve FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 3600
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - HOU
FD - 14.69 DK - 11.25

It is pretty much the same story as yesterday when I wrote him up as a top PTS/$ play in the system. The Astros are projected for close to six runs in one of the best matchups on the slate against Jordan Lyles, Altuve is hitting second and remains in the mid $3K range on DraftKings making him a core play on our optimizer.

DJ LeMahieu FD 4000 DK 5400
Opponent - TOR (Chase Anderson) Park - TOR
FD - 11.61 DK - 8.97

The rest of the position is pretty terrible tonight so let's just turn to one of the most consistent bats in the league. Not only is he 7 for 10 with three doubles and three home runs in the last two days(WHAT??), he has pushed his average up to an insane .373 on the season just one point behind league-leader, Tim Anderson. To put into perspective just how good these two have been, the gap between second(.273) and 3rd(.352) is the same as 3rd and 10th. Anyways, LeMahieu and the Yankees should roll again(I am a sad Jays fan) making LeMahieu and pretty much and Yankees bat in play. You will just need to find salary relief elsewhere to make ti work.

Shortstop

Chris Taylor FD 3300 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.06

I have somehow gone this entire article without mentioning Coors and it has more to do with the prices and difficulty fitting either team in cash games if we want a piece of Bieber. While he hits down in a loaded front-end Dodgers lineup, Chris Taylor has been decent overall and better lately with hits in five straight and 13 of his last 15 games. If the Dodgers keep the same lineup they have been rolling out Taylor could again be hitting between Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger which does boost the value some but either way, he is in play in all formats tonight.

Paul DeJong FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.1

DeJong is a very interesting case study in 2020 for a couple of reasons. It starts with the fact he is quietly having a terrific year posting a career-high .295 average and .377 on-base percentage. What stands out here is the lack of power(3 HR) and especially considering he avg exit velo(90.9), launch angle(20 degrees), hard hit %(47%) are all the highest of his career. I love the consistency and don't think a HR/FB rate 6% lower than last year is sustainable considering the stats I provided above so at these prices, he offers a high floor with tons of upside. He and Goldy are one of my top two-man stacks tonight.

Third Base

Gio Urshela FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4400
Opponent - TOR (Chase Anderson) Park - NYY
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.25

Just when you thought the Yankees were fading away after losing seven of eight games, they bounce back in a monstrous way winning seven straight including scoring a whopping 33 runs against Jays pitching over the last two days. The crazy part is that during those two games, Judge and Stanton went a combined 0 for 8 in their returns to the lineup which is a testament to their depth. One of those depth pieces is Gio Urshela who has posted a .387 wOBA and 146 wRC+ over 32 games and is projected to hit in the 5-hole once again putting him on my radar in all formats.

Ke'Bryan Hayes FD 3200 DK 3100
Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - STL
FD - 8.68 DK - 6.68

Hayes is a player that is gaining my attention since being called u at the start of September. He comes into tonight with hits in 10 of his first 13 games(.304 average) and has quickly moved up the Pirates lineup. I am not in love with the matchup as I like Hudson today(see above) but if you are looking to outright punt the positon on DraftKings, Hayes is very cheap and has a nice opportunity to hit value without doing a whole lot of damage to the pitcher.

Outfield

George Springer FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - HOU
FD - 15.4 DK - 11.56

Paying up for both pitchers on DraftKings tonight has me avoiding the growing $5K range which leads me right to George Springer he checks almost every box tonight. I say almost as the average(.240) is not what we expect out of him but he has hit for power(10 HR) and has been a consistent leadoff man with a .357 wOBA and 129 wRC+. he and the Astros now get an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles who has given up four or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts. All things considered, I love the floor with him hitting leadoff in a plus matchup and at these prices, there is a lot of PTS/$ upside. Lock and load.

DJ Stewart DK - OF 2200
Opponent - TB (Undecided) Park - TB
FD - 0 DK - 7.47

I am going back to the Tampa/Baltimore double-header game one more time only because we are going to need a punt play or two to help us pay up for both pitchers. Stewart's value jumps off the page once against as he is min price on DraftKings despite being red-hot with hits in seven of his last 10 games including five multi-hit efforts, seven home runs, and 10 RBI. he is projected to be hitting in the top half of the lineup and that is more than enough for me to jam him into my cash lineups tonight.

**Update - DraftKings has removed this game from the main slate so this play is showdown only now**

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