FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday 9/8/20

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Raptors (3) vs. Celtics (-3)

After the Raptors tied things up 2-2 in game four, game five was rather anticlimactic with the Celtics winning by an easy 22, 111-89. It was a disappointing turnaround for Toronto who never looked comfortable and were dispatched easily. They now face an elimination game and will likely pull out all of the stops.

In a close game, we could see mid-40’s minutes out of Kyle Lowry (FD $8900 DK $8200), Fred Vanvleet (FD $7900 DK $7500), OG Anunoby (FD $6000 DK $5700) and Pascal Siakam (FD $8000 DK $7800). I basically just listed them in order of how safe I feel they are in cash. Lowry and VanVleet continued some shooting struggles and finished with 10 and 18 points respectively in game two. It’s been an up and down series for both. FVV is probably the better value of the two, but the shot has really struggled in this series.

Anunoby gets enough done on the defensive side to keep the floor high and took the third-most shots on the team in game five with 11. He’s not cheap, but if you are just hedging down the middle with that tier of pricing then he’s a good play.

I don’t trust Siakam at all in cash with the fantasy lines mostly trending the wrong way, but I also could see him playing almost the whole game.

On the other side, the Celtics bring their own foursome who is sometimes tough to discern between in cash. Ranking them in order, I’d go Kemba Walker (FD $8300 DK $8100), Marcus Smart (FD $5700 DK $6500), Jayson Tatum (FD $9400 DK $9300) and Jaylen Brown (FD $7800 DK $7600) in that order for how I think they stack in terms of value.

Walker has had an up and down series but is still averaging 20 points and six assists even with a little run bad on the three-point shooting. the usage rate is still there and he’s close to a lock on both sites when it comes to our system.

Marcus Smart is averaging eight threes a game for the series and actually knocking them down at a 38% rate. He’s putting up 14 points, six rebounds and four assists along with two blocks+steals. I still think he’s coming too cheap on FanDuel for how “safe” he is contributing across the stat line.

Clippers (-7.5) vs. Nuggets (+7.5)

The Clippers took a 2-1 series lead thanks to another amazing game from Kawhi Leonard (FD $10600 DK $10300) who dropped 23 points, 14 rebounds, six assists and two blocks (one with one finger). He’s still very much a great cash option even with the price continuing to tick up. I’m not sure he’s a total must considering some of the relative value we are getting from the other game, but he does make for an uncomfortable fade if you go that direction.

Paul George (FD $8200 DK $8500) finally got the shot dropping in game two going 12-18 from the field and 5-7 from three on his way to a team-high 32 points. If the 40 minutes are on lock from here on out then he’s still a bit underpriced.

Marcus Morris (FD $5100 DK $4900) continues to be one of the better values on these slates and has averaged a reasonable 14 points and four assists per game this series. It isn’t a world-beater but beggars can’t be choosers on these slates with very little in the way of cheap plays.

On the Denver side, we played Nikola Jokic (FD $9900 DK $9900) at 3% owned on DraftKings on Monday and were paid off handsomely with a 32 point, 12 rebound and eight assist line that won the day even in the loss. I’m still willing to go there on both sites because he just has such a fantasy arsenal.

Paul Millsap (FD $4900 DK $4800) rolled another 28 minutes in game three though had an underwhelming line of 11 points, two rebounds and two assists. The price didn’t come up enough to worry too much about it if the minutes are going to be there and the Nugget have seemed to want his defense in this series.

For big tournaments, you have to consider Michael Porter Jr. (FD $5400 DK $5200) and his instant offense tendencies, but relying on this production and minutes in cash just isn’t safe enough.