DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/8/20

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Pitchers

Walker Buehler FD - P 10400 DK - SP 10200
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARI
FD - 36.68 DK - 20.18
Buehler has allowed only one earned run in his last 11 innings, striking out 17 batters and walking only one in that time period. He’s once again looking like the ace after struggling a bit out of the gate to start the season. The walks, for the season, are a bit up over last season but he’s still striking out more than 10 batters per nine. The Diamondbacks have the third-worst team wOBA in the league this season though they don’t strike out a ton. It matters little though with Buehler a big favorite against a light-hitting team. He is the top projected cash game pitcher on the main slate and for good reason.

Mike Clevinger FD - P 9600 DK - SP 9700
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - SD
FD - 39.91 DK - 21.88
It hasn’t exactly been a banner year for Clevinger who was persona non grata in Cleveland after breaking team quarantine rules and then getting shipped to San Diego at the trade deadline. Though one could say at least he landed on a true contender. But the pitching has been bad in his 28 innings, striking out fewer than seven batters per nine and walking 3.77/9. And don’t get totally fooled by the 3.14 ERA, the 4.87 xFIP is more than 1.5 runs higher. But he’s a big-time -225 home favorite against the Rockies who have a grizzly .288 wOBA when they play outside of Coors. Looking for a bounce back game for Clevinger here matched up against a weaker opponent.

Logan Webb (FD $6700 DK $7700) is an interesting choice against a very weak Seattle team. His peripherals are fine enough and the price is right.

Catcher/First Base

Carlos Santana FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 3600
Opponent - KC (Jakob Junis) Park - CLE
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.21
Santana remains one of the most patient hitters in the league with a 20% walk percentage this season, up from 16% over the last two years. He walks more than he strikes out, which is extremely rare for hitters these days. The issue this season has been any semblance of power, hitting only four home runs through his first 174 plate appearances. The hard contact % is about in line with his career numbers so this strikes me as run bad and the Indians have made no adjustments to their lineup so they feel fine with the lack of production. The price is simply too low.

Edwin Encarnación FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - PIT (Joe Musgrove) Park - PIT
FD - 13.17 DK - 9.77
Encarnacion has struggled this season for sure with an OPS barely scraping over .700 and the strikeout rate way up over his career averages. But he could be pressing because of the .180 BABIP which is about 90 points below his career average. I’m into buying him on this slate against Joe Musgrove who hasn’t been a huge swing and miss guy for his career with a 8.17 K/9 rate over his first 474 innings pitched. I like buying low here on E5.

Second Base

Max Muncy FD - 2B 3600 DK - 1B/3B 5500
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARI
FD - 14.38 DK - 10.64
Muncy doesn’t have the 1K OPS we’ve come to expect over the last couple of seasons, which has led to the price dropping and him getting moved down a bit in the Dodgers’ lineup. But they are still in a such a good spot against Luke Weaver who, despite a good K rate, still has a high-4’s xFIP. Muncy’s 15% walks rate is still elite and he’s running rough on the BABIP which is about 70 points lower than his career average. He’s still a buy-low candidate even moving down the order because the lineup as a whole is so freaking good.

Jeff McNeil FD - 3B 2700 DK - 2B/OF 3600
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - NYM
FD - 13.25 DK - 10.22
Hernandez is another Indian performing a bit behind his historical numbers, striking out more (22%) than what he’s done in the past. But the 11% walk rate is higher than last season and th elated ball numbers look in line with his previous seasons. He’s locked into the leadoff spot for the Indians and that continues to have have value on these slates. Jakob Junis is one of the worst regular starters in the league with an xFIP in the mid-5’s and a terrible K percentage.

Shortstop

Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 4700 DK - SS 6000
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - SD
FD - 13.77 DK - 10.53
The Padres get to face Chi-Chi Gonzalez on Tuesday, one of the weaker arms you’ll see getting starts. He has a career 5.54 K/9 rate through 149 innings and a 5.35 xFIP. Tatis needs no real introduction here, putting it all together this season with a 1.063 OPS, 15 home runs, seven stolen bases on his way to MVP consideration in the National League. He’s expensive for sure, but there are some ways to save at some other positions.

Corey Seager FD - SS 3900 DK - SS 5500
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARI
FD - 13.23 DK - 10.02
Seager isn’t cheap, but you aren’t breaking the total bank on pitchers for this slate so you can live with the price and it is a discount compared to Tatis. Seeger has raked this season, putting up a 1.011 OPS thanks to 11 home runs and a minuscule 16% K rate. He’s an elite hitter and has worked his way back to the two hole in the Dodgers’ order. The price is somewhat reflective of the output, but not completely.

Third Base

Jeff McNeil FD - 3B 2700 DK - 2B/OF 3600
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - NYM
FD - 13.25 DK - 10.22
McNeil has struggled this season for sure with a mid-.700’s OPS which is well below the .915 number he put up in his first full season in 2019. A big part of it is the home run rate which has fallen off a cliff. He had 23 dongs in 567 PAs last season but has only one in his first 134 plate appearances this season. The Mets still are hitting him in the leadoff spot against lefties which gives him a big advantage when it comes to plate appearance expectation even though this is the worse side of his split.

After McNeil (or maybe even before him) the position isn’t all that great. You can pay all the way up for Manny Machado (FD $4000 DK $5800) but that’s going to be tough with some of the other guys you’d rather spend up for.

Kris Bryant (FD $3000 DK $4600) back from the IL is too cheap on FanDuel for sure, but the matchup against Mahle isn’t all that great.

Outfield

Cody Bellinger FD - OF 4300 DK - 1B/OF 5800
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARI
FD - 16.08 DK - 11.99
Mookie Betts FD - OF 4500 DK - OF 6000
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARI
FD - 15.66 DK - 11.82
Joc Pederson FD - OF 2600 DK - OF 3700
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARI
FD - 13.05 DK - 9.71
Not to go all Dodgers on you here, but I’m into stacking them against Weaver on Tuesday. Betts and Bellinger need no real introduction putting together MVP seasons and just generally crushing. They are a bit pricey of course, but with a solid run line and exceptional peripherals, they still rank at the top of the raw points category going into this slate.

Meanwhile, with Justin Turner on the shelf, Joc Pederson has moved up in the order some to the fifth slot when LA faces righties, The OPS is down this season thanks in some part to a crazy-low .179 BABIP, 7 0 points off his career average. He’s coming off back-to-back high-.800’s OPS seasons and is just running bad this season leading to lower prices. He’s a fantastic value.

After this crew the position is a bit weird. Jake Marisnick (FD $2100 DK $2600) is a cheap play if he’s in the 6-7 slot against the lefty Means. This has been the winning side of his split for his career and the price is in the basement.

The price on Wil Myers (FD $3100 DK $4400) is still pretty low considering how potent the offense is. He’s moderately platoon neutral for his career, only slightly worse against righties. I don’t mind the price for a middle of the order Padres’ bat.

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