FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday 9/4/20

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Bucks (-5) vs. Heat (+5)

Things are getting a bit weird in Milwaukee with the regular season juggernaut Bucks now down 0-2 in the series to the Heat and maybe on their way to an early playoff exit. They’ll have a chance to get back into it on Thursday and one has to believe they go all-out in order to avoid the Heat going up 3-0 here.

For the Bucks, it starts and stops with Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $10600 DK $11500) who is averaging 23 points, 12 rebounds and six assists through the first two games. For him, these numbers aren’t overwhelming and the 36.5 minutes per game remains concerning. That being said, I think the plan was to play him even more in game two, but he got into some foul trouble. While Coach Bud has always bucked back at running the guys max minutes, he’s probably (we think?) pushed to the breaking point here. While Miami has speed bumped Giannis through the first two games, I think he’s still at the top of the cash game considerations (though it’s close with the Lakers’ guys) and if there was a moment to go full run, this is it.

In terms of value, Eric Bledsoe (FD $5600 DK $5700) and George Hill (FD $4500 DK $4300) played 31 and 26 minutes respectively in game two. For their prices, I think they make two of the better point guard plays on Monday at a position we aren’t going to want to overpay.

Jae Crowder (FD $5000 DK $5300) has played big minute in the first two games as the Heat try to offer a little more size and strength to combat Giannis. In game two he took 12 shots and dropped 16 points and six rebounds. That makes for 13 points and eight rebounds on average for the first two games. If Andre Iguodala were to sit then Crowder’s minutes would remain ultra-safe.

I’m still a fan of Tyler Herro (FD $5400 DK $5200) even off the bench. He’s been closing for this team and that shouldn’t change going forward considering how well he’s played. he took the second-most shots on the team in game two and is averaging 14 points per game in the first two.

Rockets (6.5) vs. Lakers (-6.5)

It will have been five days since the Lakers last took the court which in the bubble is tantamount to two weeks off. They’ll open up the series against a Rockets team coming off a hard-fought seven game series against the Thunder that went right down to the crazy wire. This series poses some series philosophical differences in style and size with the Lakers going ultra-big and the Rockets going all-in on the small ball format. It should be fascinating.

We might be looking at cash game start/stops with LeBron James (FD $10800 DK $11000) and Anthony Davis (FD $11200 DK $10600). The Lakers have had no issue pushing these guys major minutes this season, they are well rested and pose some serious matchup issues for the Rockets. It’s all lining up to see us stack Lebron and AD in cash and live with the pieces around them. Lebron averaged a triple-double in the five games against Portland with 27 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds. Houston for sure poses at least a step up in the defensive challenge side, but Lebron only played 33 minutes a game in that opening series. He’ll get a lot more here.

Meanwhile Davis dropped a 30 point, 9 rebound and three steals+blocks on the Blazers in round one. The Rockets don’t have an obvious defensive matchup for him here and he could feast especially on the boards. He and Lebron are definitely tough fades on this slate especially if the Rockets just try to bomb threes even more as a path to victory.

Danny Green (FD $4300 DK $4100) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD $4000 DK $3800) will likely be called on to play bigger backcourt minutes trying to defend this smaller Houston unit. I think both make for salary cap savings even if the outputs are never all that much even with the minutes.

For the Rockets, I don’t think I want to pay all the way up for James Harden considering the other big names on this slate. But Robert Covington (FD $6800 DK $6300) and P.J. Tucker (FD $5100 DK $4800) could once again be in line for major minutes because Houston will need their relative size against the Lakers.

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