DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/2/20

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10400
Opponent - PHI (Zack Wheeler) Park - PHI
FD - 39.75 DK - 22.59

I will admit I was on team fade in Max's last start after two rough outings and immediately regretted it as he breezed through the Red Sox lineup striking out 11 over six innings. It was the fourth time in six starts(left with injury after one inning in one start) he has struck out double-digit batters and it also lowered his ERA to 3.86 and his xFIP to an elite 2.94 on the season. I am not in love with the matchup against the Phillies but for you BvP truthers out there, the core of their lineup(Segura, Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, McCutchen) are a combined 14 for 104(.135 average) lifetime vs. Max. The case can definitely be made for Walker Buehler on FanDuel at a discount but overall, Scherzer is the top pitcher in the system and my favorite in all formats.

Triston McKenzie FD - P 8000 DK - SP 6700
Opponent - KC (Jakob Junis) Park - KC
FD - 29.4 DK - 15.56

There is a path to paying up for two pitchers in cash games tonight but if you are like me, you always want more bats. That leads to a cheap SP2 and tonight Triston McKenzie is back on my radar in his third major league start. He was electric in his debut(6 IP, 1 ER, 10K), was ok at best in his second start(4IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3K) which gives him a 2.70 ERA and 3.89 xFIP coming into tonight. I feel he is somewhere in between and his upside is more towards the first start tonight in a great matchup vs. the Royals who rank in the bottom third of the league in almost every offensive category.

Catcher/First Base

Eric Hosmer FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - LAA (Julio Teheran) Park - LAA
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.64
Mitch Moreland FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - LAA (Julio Teheran) Park - LAA
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.72
Austin Nola FD - C 2800 DK - 1B/C 3600
Opponent - LAA (Julio Teheran) Park - LAA
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.87

We have a three-headed monster of Padres to kick off the bats tonight and it is a combination of a red hot offense and a great matchup. The come into this one as a -170 favorite going up against Julio Teheran who has been nothing short of a disaster with a 9.17 ERA and 5.92 xFIP and has given up six home runs over his last four starts.

Let's start with Hosmer who is coming off a terrific series in Coors where he went 9 for 17 giving him a .302/.356/.583 slashline for the season and the best part is the price is back down in the low $4K range on DraftKings. Mitch Moreland was sent to the Padres on deadline day and adds even more pop in the middle of the lineup as he will most likely serve as the DH and hit behind Hosmer. He has been very productive for a bad Red Sox team entering the night with an elite .310/.410/.704 slashline with eight home runs and 21 RBI. On FanDuel, while they are pricey, can be paired together with the flex spot.

The Padres were busy on deadline day and also added Austin Nola who leads all catchers with a 146 wRC+ (100+ plate appearances to qualify) and comes in hitting over .300 on season. If he is in the starting lineup tonight, he is my top catcher on DraftKings and in play as a GPP play on FanDuel.

Second Base

Cesar Hernández FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 3900
Opponent - KC (Jakob Junis) Park - KC
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.57

The Indians offense has been up and down all season and coming off a good night on Tuesday, is another good spot tonight as one of five teams with an implied run projection north of five. The will face Jakob Junis who continues to be an underwhelming major league start with a 4.26 ERA, 5.23 xFIP and has been worse against lefties and Hernandez is a switch hitter who has been far better from the left side. As the leadoff hitter getting on base over 36% of the time, Cesar is in play in all formats.

Mike Brosseau FD - 2B 2500 DK - 1B/2B 4900
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 9.39 DK - 7.2

Brosseau has been a very productive utility player for the Rays hitting .326 with a .385 OBP and has even surprised a bit with three home runs. All three of those came against lefties and overall in the split, he has posted a .465 wOBA and 204 wRC+. While the price is a little ridiculous on DraftKings, Mike Brosseau is a top value on FanDuel in the mid $2K range.

Shortstop

Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 4700 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - LAA (Julio Teheran) Park - LAA
FD - 14.21 DK - 10.86

How good has Fernando Tatis Jr. been this season? Looking at WAR(wins against replacement) which is a terrific overall game metric and Tatis currently sits at 2.6 on the season and the gap between him and 2nd is the same as the gap between 2n and 20th. He is currently the best player in the game(there I said it) and the Padres get another top matchup against Teheran who has given up 16 earned runs, including six home runs, over his last four starts. If you are paying up for one player today, make is Tatis.

Willy Adames FD - SS 2700 DK - SS 3900
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 8.49 DK - 6.51

If paying up for two pitchers on DraftKings is your gameplan tonight, Tatis is most definitely off the table so let's turn our focus back to the 1st place Rays. They don't have one superstar player but rather one of the most balanced offenses in baseball with every player with 50+ at-bats(10) holding a wRC+ north of 100 on the season. That balance helps keep their prices down and Adames has been terrific to start the year with an elite .386 wOBA and 149 wRC+. At these prices vs. a lefty, he is in play in all formats on both sites.

Third Base

Austin Riley FD - 3B 2500 DK - 3B 3600
Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - BOS
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.77

You can easily pay up for Machado JRam here but there is a couple of value plays that stand out tonight allowing us to spend up at pitcher.  Not only is Riley cheap on both sites and in a plus matchup against Martin Perez, but he has also been red-hot with hits in six straight and 11 of his last 12 games with multi-hit efforts in six of those. All things considered, I will have exposure to Riley in all formats.

Colin Moran FD - 3B 2700 DK - 1B 3500
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - PIT
FD - 8.33 DK - 6.39

After sitting out a week due to a concussion Moran is back and after going 0-2 on Monday with two walks and a run, he went 2 for 4 with a walk and two runs on Tuesday. He isn't the most consistent option(.253 avg/.333 OBP) but provides some upside(6 HR) and faces a pitcher in Kyle Hendricks who has struggled in that area lately giving up five in his last three starts. At these prices, he makes an excellent value play in GPP formats on a hot Pirates offense that has scored 5+ runs in seven of their last eight games.

Outfield

Ian Happ FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4000
Opponent - PIT (Derek Holland) Park - PIT
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.43

I absolutely love the mid-range outfielders tonight and it starts with Ian Happ who has been the primary leadoff hitter since mid-August and continues to be underpriced in relation to production. On a team that has struggled, Happ comes in with three straight multi-hit games pushing his average over .300 and OBP over. 380 on the season. He and the Cubs get a plus matchup against a struggling Derek Holland who comes in with an ugly 7.62 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, and has given up 10 runs across five starts. Happ is my favorite PTS/$ outfielder and in play in all formats.

**Update - The Pirates will start Musgrove over Holland but I still like Happ in the leadoff spot for the Cubs in all formats.**

Marcell Ozuna FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - BOS
FD - 13.86 DK - 10.49

The Braves are right up at the top with the Cubs in terms of implied runs tonight and Marcell Ozuna is a Top 5 paly in our system in terms of raw points and PTS/$ projections. Like Happ, Ozuna faces a struggling lefty and has been terrific in the split to start the year with a .471 wOBA and 199 wRC+ with three home runs. He hits in the middle of the lineup and comes in the second tier of pricing on both sites putting him firmly in play in all formats.

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