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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/1/20
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Zach Plesac FD 9700 DK 8300 Opponent - KC (Matt Harvey) Park - KC
FD - 30.52 DK - 15.18
Please was one of the surprise arms this season, looking awesome in his first 21 innings but after breaking quarantine was sent to the Indians’ alternate sit and essentially put in timeout. But with Mike Clevinger getting traded to San Diego on Monday, Plesac will get the call up and start against the Royals. Kansas City is the 22nd ranked team wOBA this season and rank 22nd in getting on base. Plesac was striking out more than 10 batters per nine in his first three starts and really limiting the walks. That’s something of an outlier compared to his historical numbers, but he was throwing his slider and curve more than in the past. I like the play here on a day a little light on pitching.
Julio Urías FD - P 7300 DK - SP 9700 Opponent - ARI (Alex Young) Park - LAD
FD - 33.22 DK - 17.56
Julio Urias remains a work in progress. The (still) young prospect has shown flashes of the strikeout stuff, but then there are the 1.2 IP games like he did two starts ago that make him rather risky. The Dodgers still aren’t willing to push the pitch counts much past 90 but that’s also why the price remains on the low side, especially on FanDuel. He is the biggest opening line favorite on Monday at -240 against the Diamondbacks. Arizona ranks 27th in team wOBA though only strikeout 20% of the time. This is still a good matchup for Urias especially considering the implied win odds.
Josh Lindblom (FD $6800 DK $6600) has put up some big K stuff this season since coming over and faces a weak Tigers squad. The 3.88 xFIP is about 2.5 runs lower than his 6.31 ERA. He just needs to limit the walks.
Catcher/First Base
Justin Smoak FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - MIL
FD - 11.81 DK - 8.75
Ryan Braun FD - 1B 2700 DK - OF 3900 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - MIL
FD - 11.73 DK - 8.91
Michael Fulmer’s first 14 innings this season have been rough with a 5.74 xFIP while striking out only 16% of batters and walking 10%. Smoak and Braun have both struggled to start the season though for different reasons. Smoak has spiked the K rate to 32% though that becomes less of a concern against Fulmer. Meanwhile, Braun’s .200 BABIP is more than 120 points off his career average. It’s not a batter ball issue with the hard contact rate in line with his career average and the ground ball rate isn’t a concern. I think it’s just some run bad and he’s coming cheaper on both sites.
Carlos Santana FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4100 Opponent - KC (Matt Harvey) Park - KC
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.65
The Indians get a fantastic matchup against Matt Harvey on Tuesday. Harvey has been pretty darn bad over the last two seasons (65IP total) with only 45 strikeouts and 33 walks. He’s one of the weaker arms going. Santa is still getting on base at an elite rate (.389 this season) but the power is an issue and the .333 slugging is a bit of a concern. Some BABIP issues and the HR/FB rate falling since last year are a couple of the culprits. But this is just too good a matchup to pass up.
Second Base
Keston Hiura FD 3200 DK 5300 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - DET
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.49
I definitely don’t mind going a little heavier on the Brewers for this slate, despite some of their struggles at the plate. Hiura hit his first home run in more than a week on Monday which was a welcome sign seeing as how his 2020 numbers aren’t close to replicating the .938 OPS he put up in his 2019 rookie campaign. Last year’s .402 BABIP wasn’t going to stick for sure, but he projects to be at least a low .800s OPS guy going forward. The strikeout is his big issue, but that becomes less of an expectation when facing a guy like Fulmer.
Second base is definitely a problem, especially on FanDuel. There are a lot of light hitting options, or you are forced to pay up on guys in less than ideal matchups. Some other considerations would be Kike Hernández (FD $2500 DK $3900) who rakes lefties for his career but also projects to hit 8th or 9th in the order for the Dodgers.
Adam Frazier (FD $2400 DK $3200) should hit in the two spot for the Pirates against Jon Lester, but he’s had a brutal season and the lefty-lefty matchup is on the worse side of his platoon.
Shortstop
Javier Báez FD - SS 3200 DK - SS 4500 Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.86
Baez has really struggled this season with an OPS just a little over .600 and a putrid .263 wOBA. Some of it is a BABIP issue with the .270 number more that 60 points lower than his career average. He’s also striking out a bunch at 35%. But Tuesday offers a chance at facing Chad Kuhl who K’s only seven batters per nine. It’s a good spot for Baez to start bouncing back.
Francisco Lindor FD 3300 DK 5300 Opponent - KC (Matt Harvey) Park - KC
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.26
We aren’t likely paying up for much pitching on this slate, so I don’t mind going a little more expensive on the bats. Lindor’s OPS is only sitting in the mid-.700s this season thanks in part to a 4% dip in his Hr/FB rate compared to the last two seasons. The 40% hard contact rate is still well in line with his previous seasons, all of which saw him top 30 home runs. Facing Matt Harvey is a good chance to start turning things around. Though the switch-hitting Lindor is better against lefties for his career, the splits trend more neutral than anything else.
Third Base
Justin Turner FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4800 Opponent - ARI (Alex Young) Park - LAD
FD - 13.85 DK - 10.47
Turner is another guy whose price has fallen thanks to a slow start to the season. After an OPS close to 1K in 2019, it’s to down to about .800 this year with only two home runs in his first 138 plate appearances. But the patience is still there (10% walk rate) and he’s tough to strikeout. The 60% hard contact rate means he’s just running so bad on the power side and he’s tuned up lefties for his career. Alex Young is a decent arm, but we are just getting Turner too cheap here.
Jeff McNeil FD - 3B 2500 DK - 2B/OF 3400 Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.76
Man, it’s been so tough for McNeil to start this season. He’s still so tough to strikeout at only 13% but the power has been non-existent with zero homers through his first 103 plate appearances. This is after a 23-home run season in 2019. The batter ball numbers are a little of a concern with the GB% up and the hard contact rate down. But he’s simply coming too cheap based on the past performance and the matchup against Wojciechowski is a good one.
Outfield
Kyle Schwarber FD 3200 DK 4300 Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.02
Ian Happ FD 3100 DK 4100 Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.07
Don’t let Chad Kuhl’s sub-3 ERA fool you at all. The xFIP is closer to 5.00 and he’s striking out batters at only a 7.2 / 9 rate while walking close to four in that span. He’s just a below average arm through and through. The walks especially could be a problem for these Cubs who do show patience at the plate. Schwarber is walking more than 12% of the time with the K’s being the main culprit in his production. That’s not going to be much of an issue against Kuhl and even despite the former’s swing and miss problems, he’s still sporting a mid-.800s OPS this season.
Happy will likely hit a little lower in the order if Kris Bryant is back, but has been awesome this season with a 1.041 OPS thanks to nine home runs and a 17% walk rate. He’s been one of the better hitters in baseball and is significantly better in the matchup against righties. Stacking Cubs on a day that sees us paying down for pitching has a lot of upside.
Christian Yelich FD 4100 DK 5100 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - DET
FD - 14.92 DK - 11.26
All the Cubs and Brewers today? It might be trending that way. Sticking Yelich below anyone in a picks article isn’t all that great of a look, but here we are. He hasn’t gotten out of the gate strong this season with the K’s up around 30%. But he’s having major BABIP issues with the .217 number close to 140 points below his career average. That’s due for regression and the price has dropped too low for this superstar.
