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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/29/20
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This season was already crazy to begin with and things just keep getting more difficult for us DFS players. We weren't even sure there would be games on Friday with what happened on Thursday and then we hear that there's a 17-game slate. That's what happens when everyone is off and we might be in for a similar situation here. All of that means you need to monitor lineups before hitting the submit button, as there will surely be changes that could benefit our lineups.
Pitchers
Dylan Bundy FD - P 9100 DK - SP 10300
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - LAA
FD - 34.45 DK - 18.44
With the Angels rotation getting pushed back, it looks like Bundy is going to make the start here. That's big news in this terrible slate, as it gives us a number-one guy to key in on. It's really strange to call Bundy an ace but that's what he's developed into this season. In six starts this year, the right-hander is pitching to a 2.58 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 29 percent K rate. Those are numbers you'd usually see from a Clayton Kershaw-type, making him hard to fade against one of the worst offenses in baseball. Not only does Seattle rank 25th in OBP and 24th in OPS, Bundy also enters this matchup as a projected -200 favorite.
Luke Weaver FD - P 7100 DK - SP 7600
Opponent - SF (Trevor Cahill) Park - ARI
FD - 29.79 DK - 15.64
I've been burned by the Giants a lot this season but this offense simply isn't as good as their showing so far. This is a club that ranked bottom-three in OBP, OPS and runs scored last season and it's just a matter of time before this weak lineup starts showing that form. We also like the fact that Weaver is starting to turn his season around, collecting a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 rate over his last two starts. One of those happened to come against these Giants and we'll bank on him at this cheap price tag to duplicate that performance.
Catcher/First Base
Pete Alonso FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - NYY (J.A. Happ) Park - NYY
FD - 11.13 DK - 8.29
Alonso has hit a regression wall after an absurd 53-homer season last year and it's lowered his price to this intriguing number. This is a guy who was $1,000 more on each site this time a month ago and he's still got the power potential to live up to that lofty price tag. In fact, Alonso still has a .557 SLG for his career and has been even better against lefties. For his career, Pete the Polar Bear has a .572 SLG and .930 OPS against left-handers. That's certainly bad news for a struggling J.A. Happ and we'll go over that more later.
Eric Thames FD - 1B 2300 DK - 1B 3700
Opponent - BOS (Chris Mazza) Park - BOS
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.05
Thames finds his way into these articles quite a bit and it's easy to see why when you see these price tags. The big first baseman has been a stud against right-handers since coming over from the KBO and it's hard to understand this pricing algorithm with that in his favor. Since 2017, Thames has a .497 SLG and .829 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That's particularly horrifying for a guy like Mazza, with the right-hander making his season debut, posting a 5.73 ERA and 1.73 WHIP across 22 total innings at this level.
If you're in need of a catcher, Wilson Ramos is only $2,200 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DK with the platoon advantage in his favor.
Second Base
Ketel Marte FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 4900
Opponent - SF (Trevor Cahill) Park - ARI
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.95
Marte is one of the most underrated bats in the league and I really don't understand why FanDuel continues to keep his price so low. After a 2-for-3 night on Friday, Marte now has a .326 AVG, .562 SLG and .941 OPS since the beginning of last season. There aren't many players posting averages like those, particularly second basemen who are just $3,000. One of the biggest reasons we like him today is because he gets to face Trevor Cahill, with the righty generating a 5.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in that exact same span.
Howie Kendrick FD - 2B 2700 DK - 1B 3800
Opponent - BOS (Chris Mazza) Park - BOS
FD - 13.14 DK - 10.12
We already discussed how bad Mazza looks in the Thames write-up and it makes the Nationals one of the most intriguing stacks on the board. You can spend just $5,000 combined on these two guys on FanDuel, which pretty much allows you to do whatever else you want. Kendrick's numbers over the last few years are even more impressive than Thames too, amassing a .323 AVG, .507 SLG and .877 OPS since 2017. That's all you can hope for from such an affordable player, especially in such a tasty matchup.
Shortstop
Trevor Story FD - SS 4500 DK - SS 5700
Opponent - SD (Adrian Morejon) Park - COL
FD - 13.71 DK - 10.38
If you've been reading these articles, you already know that we love Story when he gets to face a lefty at home. Since 2018, Story's got a .388 OBP, .633 SLG and 1.021 OPS against left-handers. In that same span, he's got a .384 OBP, .668 SLG and 1.052 OPS at home. That's obviously absurd and it makes him one of the easiest plays out there no matter the matchup. That happens to be a bonus here too though, facing Adrian Morejon, who's just 21-years-old and has a 8.53 ERA and 1.82 WHIP for his career.
Kevin Newman FD - SS 2400 DK - 2B/SS 3500
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - MIL
FD - 10.28 DK - 8.09
It was tough to find a second shortstop but Newman is a cheap pivot at this price. This guy has quietly been a really nice player for the Buccos, totaling a .303 AVG and .778 OPS since the beginning of last season. The reason we want to ride him today is because he gets to face a lefty. So far this year, Newman is hitting .412 with the platoon advantage in his favor en route to a .588 SLG and 1.033 OPS. We're certainly not worried about Anderson and his 4.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP dating back to 2016 either.
Third Base
Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 4100 DK - 3B 5500
Opponent - SD (Adrian Morejon) Park - COL
FD - 13.19 DK - 9.92
Stacking Story and Arenado is a profitable proposition on this slate and it could be sharp to go with those two and the cheap Nationals bats in your build. Much like Story, Arenado absolutely rakes at home and absolutely obliterates left-handed pitching. Since 2018, Arenado has a .340 AVG, .426 OBP, .666 SLG And 1.092 OPS against lefties. In that same span, Nola is generating a .344 AVG, .666 SLG and 1.074 OPS at home. That's horrifying for a guy like Morejon, who's going to struggle getting through Arenado and Story. Not to mention, Arenado has 10 hits over his last seven games en route to an OPS north of 1.000 and appears to be turning his season around.
Rafael Devers FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4900
Opponent - WSH (Anibal Sánchez) Park - BOS
FD - 15.25 DK - 11.57
Using hitters against Anibal is definitely a good idea the way he's pitching this season. Not only is he one of the league leaders homers surrendered over the last decade, Sanchez is also pitching to a 6.48 ERA and 1.72 WHIP this season. That's obviously terrible and it puts a lefty slugger like Devers right in play. For his career, Devers has a .289 AVG, .347 OBP, .541 SLG and .889 OPS against right-handers. All of that makes him a decent value when you consider these price tags and he could be a good pivot away from Arenado is you don't have the salary.
Outfield
Mike Trout FD - OF 4500 DK - OF 5900
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - LAA
FD - 14.11 DK - 10.43
All of you know that Trout is a good play on every single slate but we really like him here. One of the reasons we love him is his recent form. Since witnessing his child's birth, Trout has 10 homers in that 23-game span. A lot of players won't even finish this abbreviated season with 10 dingers, proving once again that he's one of the best power bats in the game. That pairs beautifully with the fact that he gets to face a lefty, with Trout accruing a .400 wOBA and .242 ISO against southpaws for his career.
Juan Soto FD - OF 4700 DK - OF 5700
Opponent - BOS (Chris Mazza) Park - BOS
FD - 17.34 DK - 12.91
If the Nationals had a better record, Soto would be one of the front-runners for MVP. The reason for that is because Soto is providing a .380 AVG, .476 OBP, .803 SLG and 1.279 OPS so far this season. Those absurd averages bring his career OBP to .408 and OPS to .961. That makes me feel very unsuccessful with Soto sitting at the ripe age of 21-years-old and it's scary to think that he hasn't even hit his ceiling yet. Getting to face Mazza and his ugly averages is simply the icing on the cake, with splits not really making a difference for Soto either.
J.D. Davis FD - OF 2900 DK - 3B 3900
Opponent - NYY (J.A. Happ) Park - NYY
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.58
This is yet another price tag that makes no sense. Davis has some of the best advanced statistics in baseball since the beginning of last season and he's being price like a bottom of the order bat. Since last year, J.D. has a .305 AVG, .377 OBP, .514 SLG and .897 OPS. That looks even better when you consider that Davis has a .909 OPS against left-handers in that span. We also foreshadowed that we're not scared of J.A. Happ and it's easy to understand why when you see his 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP since the beginning of last year.
