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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/25/20
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Shane Bieber FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10800 Opponent - MIN (Rich Hill) Park - CLE
FD - 42.01 DK - 23.24
It’s hard to really appreciate just how dominant Bieber has been to start this season. He’s been absolutely untouchable in his first six starts which amount to about a good a run as any pitcher has had, ever. He’s striking out 43% of opposing batters (14 K/9) and walking only 4% (1.33 BB/9) and is sporting a 1.11 ERA through 40.2 innings. The 1.52 xFIP is just a tick *worse* and is still ultra-elite. This isn’t a good matchup against the Twins, but he’s just the best pitcher in baseball right now and while the K’s are likely to come down some, he’s still been trending this direction. Batters are swinging out of the zone at 40% and he’s added a cut fastball out of nowhere that’s become his second-best pitch. It’s time to just marvel at what this guy is doing.
Lucas Giolito FD - P 10400 DK - SP 9700 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - CHW
FD - 37.76 DK - 20.17
In some ways, Giolito is having an even better season this year than in 2019. He’s striking out more batters per nine (11.68) and the xFIP is down .2 runs from last year. His only real issue is the walks are up from 2.9 per nine last season to over four this time around. But he’s the best money line win favorite on the slate at -205 against the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranks second to last in team wOBA this season and strike out 24% of the time. This is a smash spot for Giolito.
Tyler Glasnow FD - P 9000 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - BAL (Tommy Milone) Park - TB
FD - 38.36 DK - 21.2
Glasnow is averaging fewer than five innings per start this season because he’s struggling to keep the ball in the zone. It’s let to a walk rate over 5 BB/9. But the K stuff is very much there, putting down 37% of batters with a 15 K/9. Don’t get too worried about 6.00 ERA because the 3.54 xFIP is about 2.5 runs lower. He’s compounding the walk issues with a career-worst 68% LOB% and .349 BABIP against. That’s a lot of run bad on top of the walks. The Orioles have actual been decent with the stick this season, but Glasnow is a -200 favorite in a very favorable pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay.
On DraftKings, you can go with Chris Paddack (FD $8900 DK $7800)
against the Seattle Mariners.
Catcher/First Base
Matt Olson FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 5300 Opponent - TEX (Kyle Gibson) Park - TEX
FD - 12.81 DK - 9.54
After spiking his K’s in 2019, Kyle Gibson has returned to *form* this season and is right back to striking out less than seven batters per nine and walking close to 3.5. Sure, he induces a lot of ground balls, but is also sporting a FIP close to 5.00. This is a good time to jump on a guy like Olson whose price is down in part because the .138 BABIP shows some super run bad. He’s walking 16% of the time and could be primed for a breakout if the ball starts to find a little daylight. The A’s in general are a good stack on Tuesday.
Edwin Encarnación FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - CHW
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.38
E5 is coming super cheap on both sites and rightfully so considering the start of his White Sox tenure has been a borderline disaster. In 77 plate appearances he has around a .600 OPS and is striking out 36% of the time. Woof. But he might be pressing with the BABIP about 80 points lower than his career average. He gets the lefty Brault on Tuesday and Encarnación has been great in this split for his career with a 15% walk rate and .373 wOBA. I’ll take the discount and hope the early season struggles are simply an outlier and not a sign he’s fallen off the proverbial cliff.
Second Base
Max Muncy FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B/3B 5400 Opponent - SF (Johnny Cueto) Park - SF
FD - 12.89 DK - 9.54
Second base is tough on Tuesday with limited value options on the main slate unless there is some batting lineup shakeup in some spot. Muncy’s been dropped down a bit in the Dodger lineup in favor of Seager, but this is still a guy with a 13% walk rate who’s low .700’s OPS is thanks in some part to a BABIP 80 points lower than his career average. The hard contact rate is down some too, but Johnny Cueto is a shell of his former self and the Dodgers are slated to put up runs.
After Muncy, things get tougher. If Garrett Hampson (FD $2500 DK $4000) gets himself back to the top of the order, then he’s a great play on both sites. But the Rockies hit Tapia leadoff on Monday.
Rich Hill looks like complete toast which could put Cesar Hernández (FD $2800 DK $4900) into play, but the latter is much worse against lefties for his career.
Maybe Jonathan Schoop (FD $2900 DK $4000) against Tyler Chatwood is the answer, but man are the Tigers bad.
Shortstop
Marcus Semien FD - SS 2800 DK - SS 5000 Opponent - TEX (Kyle Gibson) Park - TEX
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.62
Like with Olson, it’s easy to get on board with the A’s for this slate. Semien had a breakout 2019 with an almost .900 OPS showing a ton of patience and power to boot. It hasn’t been the same story in 2020 with the numbers looking closer to his career averages. Was last season an outlier? Maybe. I’m concerned with the walk rate disappearing and the K’s going up. But the A’s still have a solid implied run line and the K’s aren’t nearly as big an issue against a guy like Gibson.
Tommy Edman FD - SS 2800 DK - 3B/SS 4300 Opponent - KC (Matt Harvey) Park - STL
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.91
Edman isn’t the most patient of hitters, walking only 4% of the time this season, but he isn’t all that easy to put down on strikes either with a sub-20% K rate. He seems locked into the either the leadoff or second slot in the Cardinals’ lineup and faces Matt Harvey who’s been pretty bad over his last 63 innings between 2019-20. He might be fully cooked and the Cardinals are implied four about five runs on this slate. Edman is still coming cheap for a guy with some speed (15 SBs last season) and is coming off an .850 OPS last season.
Third Base
Justin Turner FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 5000 Opponent - SF (Johnny Cueto) Park - SF
FD - 13.12 DK - 9.91
Turner sat on Sunday after getting plunked by a pitch in the leg on Saturday. He isn’t expected to miss time and gets to face the ghost of Johnny Cueto on Tuesday. Turner’s put up three straight .900+ OPS seasons though has had a slow start to this one. No worries there though. A lot of that is thanks to a 5% Hr/FB rate which is about half his career average. His hard contact rate is 57% and there aren’t any other batted ball issues. This is a lock and load play against a low-K arm like Cueto.
Maikel Franco FD - 3B 2600 DK - 3B 3300 Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 9.83 DK - 7.49
I’m almost all-in on Turner here, but to fit a higher-priced arm you might need to make concessions in the lineup on the cheaper side. Don’t be fooled by Wainwright’s 2.00 ERA, the xFIP is in the mid-4’s and he’s striking out only six batters per nine. Franco has a high .700’s OPS this season with five home runs already. He puts the ball in play about 75% of the time which is good going up against a pitcher with Waino’s profile. Simply a cheap play to unlock value elsewhere.
Outfield
Cody Bellinger FD - OF 4200 DK - 1B/OF 5700 Opponent - SF (Johnny Cueto) Park - SF
FD - 15.71 DK - 11.71
Let’s get an expensive guy out of the way first. As stated with some other Dodgers, they are in such a good spot against Cueto. Mookie Betts (FD $4400 DK $6200) is a little more expensive so let’s take a *value* play with Bellinger whose price is down thanks to some early season struggles. His OPS is only in the mid-.700’s but the BABIP is terrible at .188 (.300 career average). He’s still walking more than 10% of the time and striking out at only 16.5%. There’s some moderate batted ball issues with the hard contact rate down, but I’m not all that worried. This still feels like a discount for Bellinger.
Jorge Soler FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 4100 Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.06
Solar is coming off a breakout 2019 season with an OPS in the low .900s and a whopping 48 home runs. It really came out of nowhere and 2020 has been a slow start by comparison. The OPS is in the low .800’s and the K rate is up over 34%. But that’s not an issue against Wainwright and Soler should decrease the expectation around the K in this matchup. He still has a 46% hard contact rate, is putting the ball in the air and if he could reduce some of the swings and misses could put himself back on track to last season’s numbers.
Jordan Luplow FD - OF 2400 DK - OF 3400 Opponent - MIN (Rich Hill) Park - CLE
FD - 10.45 DK - 7.85
Luplow is a platoon darling, getting the starts when the Indians face lefties. He’ll get that chance again on Tuesday when they face Hill who’s had a rough first seven innings on the mound this season. He’s only struck out three total batters. Meanwhile, Luplow has a career .976 OPS in this split and .402 wOBA over 220 plate appearances. Those are elite numbers for a guy priced all the way down the scale.
