DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/24/20

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Pitchers

I will preface the pitcher write-up by saying that I love the PTS/$ value with Flaherty tonight but he was limited to just 41 pitches in his first start back from the Cardinals COVID break and the expectation is he will be eased back in for two or three more starts. If that news changes on Monday, he will most definitely be the top pitcher in our optimized lineups.

Trevor Bauer FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10200
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - MIL
FD - 39.89 DK - 21.78

If Flaherty is limited again on Monday, I love going to Bauer as my top pitcher and the system agrees as he currently sits atop the raw points projections. He and the Reds are only -130 favorites, mostly due to being on the road, but get a plus matchup vs. a Brewers team that ranks bottom five in team wOBA(.292), wRC+(81), and strikeout rate(25.7%) on the season.

For Bauer, it has been a huge bounce-back after he struggled at the end of the season(6.45 ERA) after being traded to the Reds. He has been dominant in 2020 allowing just eight hits over his first four starts with just two earned runs(.68 ERA) and while he is due for some regression(obviously) the xFIP is also sitting at an elite 2.60 on the season. On top of that, he has provided an insane amount of K upside(43.6%, 13.2% swinging-strike rate). All things considered, he is a great option in all formats.

Casey Mize FD - P 6800 DK - SP 6200
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - DET
FD - 27.08 DK - 12.83

The 2018 first overall pick looked very good in his major league debut last Wednesday despite giving up three earned runs, two of which forced his exit in the fifth inning. He was rolling up to that point striking out seven and walking none and still ended up hitting 2x value on DraftKings. The good news tonight is that his price went down on DraftKings and he faces the other Chicago team who has been just league-average in almost all offensive categories and sit with the league's 2nd-worst strikeout rate(27.4%). With a price sitting below $7K on DraftKings, he is my favorite Sp2 in all formats and an excellent GPP option on FanDuel allowing you to load up on bats.

Catcher/First Base

Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 5100
Opponent - LAA (Patrick Sandoval) Park - HOU
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.14
Martín Maldonado FD - C 2700 DK - C 4200
Opponent - LAA (Patrick Sandoval) Park - HOU
FD - 8.11 DK - 6.13

The Astros are projected to be one of the highest-scoring teams on Monday and a great target for fantasy at almost every position. Let's start with the matchup against Patrick Sandoval who has struggled giving up nine earned runs over his last two starts and now sits with a 5.40 ERA and not much better 4.72 xFIP.

At first base, Yuli Gurriel has seen his price enter the elite range but for good reason as he has been one of the most consistent Astros to start the season as he enters Monday with a .287/.351/.525 slash line, .368 wOBA and 138 wRC+. Despite a small sample size(29 AB), he has also been elite against lefties with 11 hits, three of which went deep and has a .363 wOBA and 131 wRC+ in the split since the start of last season.

At catcher, Martin Maldonado is never going to provide consistency(career .215 hitter) but has done a great job driving in all the top-loaded bats in line(17 RBI). Like Gurriel, Maldonado is also better against lefties adn while not elite still has a 107wRC+ in the split since the start of last season.  In this matchup, both players are in play in all formats, Maldonado more GPP on FanDuel in a mid-lower order stack.

Second Base

Ketel Marte FD - 2B 3500 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - COL (Ryan Castellani) Park - ARI
FD - 13.26 DK - 10.2

The only team with more implied runs than the Astros tonight are the D-Backs and from a PTS/$ perspective, are much easier to fit into a lineup if you are paying up for pitching. While not exactly cheap, Ketel Marte is still only the 5th most expensive second basemen on DraftKings and comes in red hot with hits in 10 of his last 12 games. The only issue and risk with the D-backs tonight is the fact the offense has not got on base a lot limiting the run production opportunities. I don't see that being an issue tonight vs. Castellani who should continue to be hit by the regression monster as he has an xFIP(4.73) a full run higher than his ERA(3.77) and an extremely unsustainable .189 BABIP. On top of that, opponents have tallied a 65% hard contact rate through three starts. The D-backs are in play in all formats, especially Marte.

Kolten Wong FD 2600 DK 3100
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.92

The system absolutely loves Marte on both sites and after that, the position is pretty thin so let's just sort by PTS/$ which brings us to Kolten Wong. Don't get me wrong, he isn't going to wow you with any one part of his game but he comes cheap and has tons of opportunity hitting leadoff for the Cardinals. On top of that, he comes in hot with hits in seven straight games. What more could you ask for from a punt play?

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4700
Opponent - LAA (Patrick Sandoval) Park - HOU
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.41

When building cash game lineups, consistency is key and Correa brings that to the table as he leads all shortstops on this slate with an elite .385 on-base percentage backed up by a .358 wOBA(.348 xwOBA) and 45% hard contact rate. He hits lefties well(.370wOBA, 139 wRC+) and the only real concern early on was his place spot in the lineup hitting in the bottom half but the good news there is that he has now hit in the three-hole in four straight games. With the added opportunity and fact he is the 6th and 4th most expensive player at the position on DK and FD makes him my favorite shortstop in all formats.

David Fletcher FD 3300 DK 4800
Opponent - HOU (Framber Valdez) Park - HOU
FD - 8.18 DK - 6.41

This pick is more for  GPP formats as Fletcher is more expensive than Correa on both sites and doesn't have nearly as good of matchup. That should most definitely lead to lower ownership and that is great news as he has done nothing but produce in 2020 as he enters Monday hitting .306 while getting on base at an elite .372 clip and the best part is that he hits leadoff in front of two annual MVP candidates in Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. You could go to Fletcher in cash if needed ut I like him best as an ownership pivot in a full Angels stack.

Third Base

Matt Chapman FD - 3B 3700 DK - 3B 5300
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - TEX
FD - 11.77 DK - 8.8

The A's trail only the Dodgers in wins to start the 2020 season and it has been largely due to an explosive and very consistent offense. While the average(.256) or on-base percentage(.296) are not exactly where we or Chapman would like to see it, he is producing runs at an MVP level with nine home runs and 22 RBI through 29 games good for a 137 wRC+ and .342 ISO. More good news as he enters Monday with a five-game hit streak and faces Lance Lynn who may have a sparkling ERA(1.37) but is more than due for regression with a 4.07 xFIP and extremely unsustainable .174 BABIP. Load up on A's tonight in all formats.

Matt Carpenter FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.54

The Cardinals are a team that have already faced adversity with a ton of missed games due to COVID and as a result, have struggled offensively with a 94 wRC+ over 17 games. This has kept their prices in check and Carpenter, despite his own struggles, is one who stands out if you need the savings at third base. He hits in the middle of the order which gives him lots of opportunities to drive in runs and the Cards face a pitcher in Brad Keller is running hot on an unsustainable .190 BABIP. The Cards are collectively cheap as a team and should be low owned and if Keller's bubble burst tonight, you may have yourself a GPP winning stack.

Outfield

Kole Calhoun FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - COL (Ryan Castellani) Park - ARI
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.44
David Peralta FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 3400
Opponent - COL (Ryan Castellani) Park - ARI
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.15

I talked all about the D-Backs matchup above with Ketel Marte and if you can't afford him tonight, there are two outfielders who rank near the top of our PTS/$ rankings with their value prices. For Calhoun, it all comes down to the starting lineup as he has been hitting leadoff against right-handed pitching and while he hasn't really stood out I am intrigued by the price of the leadoff hitter on a team with the highest implied runs. Simple as that.

What Peralta lacks in overall upside, he more than makes for with consistency as he entered Sunday with a .310 average and .368 on-base percentage. Not that the upside isn't there buy like I mentioned with Marte the bigger issue has the team collectively not getting on base. Those opportunities should be there tonight putting Peralta in play in all formats.

Mark Canha FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4700 
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - TEX
FD - 10.55 DK - 7.91
Robbie Grossman FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - TEX
FD - 8.8 DK - 6.7

I talked about the A's with Chapman above and how they face a pitcher whose luck bubble is about to burst. In terms of value comparison, the A's are very similar to the D-Backs tonight in that they provide consistency and help us pay up for Bauer. Let's start with Canha who isn't going to pop 30 home runs in a season but is very consistent and enters tonight with hits in 12 of his last 15 games and on the season sits with an elite .377 wOBA and 145 wRC+.

Grossman is entering his second season with the A's and already seen huge improvements. He is currently hitting a career-high .288 with an elite .435 OBP and his four home runs in 92 plate appearances are just two shy of is entire season total in 2019(482 plate appearances). I like pairing them together in the outfield tonight but if you need just one, it's Canha on FanDuel and Grossman on DraftKings.

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