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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 8/23/20
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Raptors (-13) vs. 
Nets (+13)
The theme of the day is going to be changing spreads, which starts with Vegas giving the Nets 2.5 more points than they did going into game three. It's hard to blame the oddsmakers, though. The Raptors absolutely stomped the Nets in game three, and it looks like one of the feel-good stories of the bubble is about to come to an end. The Nets really have fought valiantly with what we were calling the "G-League Nets" throughout the bubble, but going up against the defending champs playing at max motivation has proven too much so far. But can we get some DFS value here anyway?
We'll start with the world champion Raptors, who have made this look awfully easy. Throughout the series the Raps have basically stuck with their normal rotations in spite of point spreads, but they finally yielded to their back-ups when the yield was firmly cemented in the 20s in game three. Cash game stalwarts like OG Anunoby (FD $4700 DK $4500), Fred Vanvleet (FD $7800 DK $7700), and Kyle Lowry (FD $8200 DK $8100) are still playable in what remains a great match-up, but only Lowry paid value before the starters were pulled in game three. If you think the Raptors keep the pedal down to end this series you might sneak a few more minutes out of them here, but the blowout risk at least has to be considered.
On the Nets side of the ball, I think you can get a lot more safety. We saw the starters play their full run of minutes in game three, and with plenty of time to rest if they get eliminated I believe Jacque Vaughn will see this game as the final item on his resume to get the Nets' head coaching job for next season. I'd be comfortable playing Caris Levert (FD $8200 DK $8200) in cash games if need be, and love him as a part of a two man game script stack with VanVleet at a position where they aren't likely to be the chalk plays. Elsewhere I'm happy to mix and match Nets where I need to fill positions for cash games, with Timothe Luwawu (FD $4700 DK $5000) and Tyler Johnson (FD $4700 DK $4600) being the top priorities there. I also think Johnson is a great big tournament play, as he had an excellent first half in game three before getting derailed by a tough game script and foul trouble.
Nuggets (+3) vs. 
Jazz (-3)
What the hell is happening here? The Jazz blew a close game one, blew the Nuggets out in game two, and then ripped their hearts out of their chests like a Mortal Kombat fatality in game three. Flawless. Vegas has moved this line from 2 points Denver's way in game three to 3 points the Jazz's way in game four, and I don't think it's because of the pumped in crowd noise.
I was nervous about our Rudy Gobert (FD $8000 DK $7800) and Mike Conley (FD $6200 DK $6300) plays after the first half when it looked like all the starters would see rest, except they paid their prices by halftime, so it didn't matter. I'd rather not pay a premium for that performance, but given how easy it looked for these two I'd expect that it's Utah's plan to make Denver find an answer for them before changing up the game plan. I wouldn't mind playing Ingels and O'Neale either, but Conley and Gobert are the Jazz I'm most interested in.
It's a little tougher to stomach the Denver side of the ball given how terrible they've looked in the last two games, but Nikola Jokic (FD $9200 DK $9300) could see ownership after being a chalk play in the last two games. He really has been excellent in this series, but he's really the only bright spot for the Nuggets in what's otherwise been a dismal series for them.
It'll be interesting to see what the Nuggets do between Jerami Grant and Michael Porter Jr. in this one. Grant started the second half after the Nuggets couldn't hide Porter on defense, but we've seen Grant give mixed performances even as a starter since the restart. The situation looks like a stay-away without some clear directive from the coaching staff as to where these minutes are going.
Some people will talk themselves into Jamal Murray after the promise he showed in the first game in the series, but that looks more like a big tournament play to me. Grabbing a Denver/Utah stack could be an interesting contrarian stack, actually, given that I'd guess this game has the highest potential for overtime of any on this slate.
Celtics (-8) vs. 
76ers (+8)
Another game with a widening spread, with Boston being favored by 3 more points than they were going into game three. And it makes sense - the mismatched and injured Sixers seem to be nearly waving the white flag at this point, and a blow-out would be a fitting end to a sort of depressing series. That being said, these teams have truly settled into the rotations they are going to war with, and with Brett Brown coaching for his job, we should see big minutes from the starters on both sides here.
It starts with the Celtics' new "big three," of course. Jaylen Brown (FD $6800 DK $7300), Jayson Tatum (FD $8800 DK $9000), and Kemba Walker (FD $7500 DK $6900) are all in play for cash game purposes in this one. Walker and Brown's game three performances speak for themselves, and Tatum almost got there in spite of picking up 3 fouls in the first quarter and losing 8 minutes off his expected rotation. I don't expect that to be the case here, and Tatum is a great power forward play.
I'm also intrigued by Marcus Smart (FD $5500 DK $5600), who remains very cheap for the 38 minutes he played as a starter last game. While Smart can disappear offensively (like he did in game one), he's playing a big enough role with Hayward out of the picture that I think you can be confident in playing him in cash games here.
On the Philly side, they've fully committed to their current starting lineup, for better or worse. All five starters are therefore in consideration for cash game purposes, with Al Horford (FD $5200 DK $6200) looking absurdly cheap on FanDuel in particular. I have a hard time they are going down without letting Joel Embiid (FD $10000 DK $10000) assert himself as well, so I'd be happy to see him in my cash game lineups as well.
Clippers (-8.5) vs. 
Mavericks (+8.5)
This looked like the best series of the first round until Luka Doncic hobbled off the court in the third quarter, and until his status is known it's going to be very tough to forecast what we need to do here. If Luka sits, you can immediately play any of the Dallas starters with a clear conscience even against a tough Clippers defense. If he plays, I wouldn't trust him for cash game purposes, but his presence also draws heavily from the rest of the plays as well. The Clippers are favored by 3.5 more points than they were going into last game, based largely on Luka's injury, and this game could get out of hand if he doesn't play.
On the Clippers side, there's value to spare. Kawhi Leonard (FD $10000 DK $9800) was a chalk cash game option going into game three, and dialed things up in all phases of the game for an astounding 36/9/8 line. It's hard to think of him as anything other than the best big money option on the slate. Our system also believes heavily in Paul George (FD $7900 DK $8000) and Marcus Morris (FD $5300 DK $5400), who we played last game at relatively low ownership. Morris delivered, but George didn't quite get there. Still, I'm happy to go back to the well there if we can afford it.
