FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, Saturday, 8/22/20

With the playoffs starting to get a bit repetetive with how plays break down, we are going to start going game-by-game with values and considerations.

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Bucks (-12) vs. Magic (+12)

Well, somebody woke up the Bucks. After the Magic stole game one it tentatively looked like this could be a series where we could glean some reliable DFS value, but game two quickly dispelled me of that illusion. There is still some value from this series, but it's going to be a risky one to target.

Nikola Vucevic (FD $8500 DK $9100) still managed to scrape some value together in spite of the Magic getting blown out, and it looks like he could still be playable in spite of this series leaning in a one sided direction. He's the only realistic offensive option for the Magic, and as good as the Bucks are defensively they haven't had an answer for him yet. He's still cheap on FanDuel, and still a cash game option.

Outside of Vuc? Eek. Evan Fournier (FD $5300 DK $5200) is the only guy that I can imagine running in cash games. He played 35 minutes in a one sided game, and his 13 shots were second among starters. I don't give credit to Terrence Ross, who got most of his attempts up in the Magic's desperate comeback attempt. Fournier still paid 5x points per dollar on his relatively cheap prices, though, and on smaller slates you can't rule him out.

As we swing over to the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $11300 DK $11000) chased himself off the court by going into superhero mode in game two, and if he can get the extra 4 minutes he should in close games these prices are a joke. Our system is also intrigued by Brook Lopez (FD $5700 DK $5300) in particular, who the Bucks are priced into keeping on the court as the only guy who can sort of defend Vucevic. He played 33 minutes in game two, and supplied 20 points from the field.

Our system frankly thinks any of the Bucks' non-Wesley Matthews starters are in play here, and even gives a nod to George Hill if you believe in the game one minutes.

Pacers (+5) vs. Heat (-5)

It's one of the more intriguing series in terms of being evenly matched, but not one of the greatest if we're stalking DFS value. The Heat made it look easy in game two, but these games are still staying close enough that we can't ignore it.

We'll start on the Heat side of things, where rising prices have the Heat looking a little bit expensive. Goran Dragic (FD $6200 DK $6000) was fantastic in game one, but lost a couple minutes and didn't even hit 5x points per dollar in game two. We're on two straight games with big Tyler Herro (FD $5000 DK $5400) minutes off the bench, but he's needed every one of those minutes to hit 5x on his prices, and while he can do more on a fantasy point per minute basis you are seeing his peak minutes almost certainly. Our system thinks guys like Bam Adebayo (FD $8000 DK $7300) and Jimmy Butler (FD $8400 DK $7600) are solid but unspectacular values. All in all, it's just not an exciting DFS team at these prices.

My eyebrows perk up when I look at Indiana, though. A lot of people were worried about Victor Oladipo (FD $5900 DK $6100) after he exited game one with an eye injury, but he went right back to his full rotation of 36+ minutes in game two. There's honestly room for more minutes and usage as things tighten up for Indy, and I think Vic is a must play in cash games today. I'll give an honorable mention to T.J. Warren (FD $7300 DK $8000) and Myles Turner (FD $6500 DK $6700), who are priced to their production but not an incredible value. Still, we ran Turner at these prices to great success last game, and he rewarded us with 41.6 FanDuel points. Both are totally playable here.

Rockets (-3) vs. Thunder (+3)

Here's a series I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around. It's looking awfully easy for the Rockets in what should be a tough match-up with a team that's sort of designed to shut down the three point line and perimeter scorers. And all of this without Russell Westbrook, who will miss this one as well. It's hard to know exactly what these teams have planned for close games since we haven't had one yet, but we have seen a few things that can guide our decision making.

James Harden (FD $11700 DK $11600) is the premier ig money option if you believe OKC can keep things close enough to force him to play his full minutes, as he's lost between 10%-15% of his minutes and production to blowouts in the first two games. He's gotten his way with his former team, averaging 52 FanDuel points in spite of his own good play running him off the floor early. He's an easy call at an otherwise tough position.

Our system doesn't mind PJ Tucker or Eric Gordon at their respective prices, but the guy it really wants to call out is Danuel House (FD $4500 DK $4700), who got the nod for 38 minutes of play in spite of a blowout in game two. He played fantastically in that time, shooting 6-13 en route to a 19/9/3 line. He might be the highest owned Rocket on the slate on a day where there really isn't much cheap value to go around.

In spite of the results of the first two games, our system is really optimistic about the Thunder's ability to turn things around. It all starts with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FD $6900 DK $7100), who is the most important member of the Thunder against this small Rockets team. He's the defensive anchor of the team, and he's also central to the offense, as his 31 points from the field in game two suggests.

The value doesn't stop there, though.

Dennis Schroder (FD $5300 DK $5700), Chris Paul (FD $7900 DK $7800), and Danilo Gallinari (FD $6300 DK $6300) all look like great values given the minutes they've played in games that haven't even stayed close. OKC can run triple guard lineups, which extend Schroder's value. Gallinari has had a tough time creating his own shots, but the raw minutes give him 6-7x upside (like we saw in game one). CP3 could play the entire game against his former team as the Thunder fight back. Hell, you can even make cases for Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel based on what we've seen so far.

There's no more time to rest these guys. The Thunder have to make moves, and our system thinks that begins in game three. Given that Vegas sees this as a three point game, I don't think we can count the Thunder out just yet.

Lakers (-7.5) vs. Trail Blazers (+7.5)

Like the Bucks, the Lakers came back with a vengeance in game two, and made this look a lot more like a 1-8 match-up than it looked in game one. The Lakers ran the Blazers right back to their hotel rooms, and the game was effectively over so quickly that not even the iron-men Blazers got their full run. So where do we go with this game?

Let's start with the Portland Trail Blazers, who are still the more interesting team from a DFS perspective. It would be hard to be worse than Carmelo Anthony was in game two, as he netted just .5 FanDuel points in his 27 minutes on the floor. But which Melo do we expect to see in game three? I have to think that game one's excellent performance wasn't a fluke, if only because it was a balanced line that included 10 rebounds. Given CJ and Dame's struggles in game two, I think the Blazers will give Melo a chance to shoot through the game two slump.

Our system sees promise in C.J. McCollum (FD $7000 DK $7500), Jusuf Nurkic (FD $7400 DK $8900), Damian Lillard (FD $9500 DK $10800), but I can't say I want to prioritize any of them after seeing each of them capable of going 2x on their current prices. All still playable, but all carry risk.

My favorite Blazer might still be Hassan Whiteside (FD $5100 DK $4600), who hit value once again in spite of scoring just 6 points from the field. Center is still tough, and it really does help to be able to get savings from a high floor play.

On the Lakers side of things, Anthony Davis (FD $10700 DK $10200) finally set up shop down low, and managed to pay these prices in just 29 minutes. The Blazers showed literally no ability to stop him, and I'm very hungry to play him at a terrible power forward position today. In a perfect world the Blazers hang around long enough to get Davis his 39 minutes, and he drops 60-70 FanDuel points as a result.

I'm also happy to fit LeBron James (FD $10200 DK $10600) into my lineups on both sites against Portland's subpar defense, assuming that his deferential approach in game two was blowout related, and the 23/17/16 LeBron we saw in game one is coming back through that door.

The rest of the Lakers seem too interchangeable for me to have much interest in them outside of big tournaments or desperation plays at shallow positions.

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