Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 54.19 DK - 56.71
It seems like five lifetimes ago that the Trial Blazers played in the Western Conference finals against the Warriors, but it seems a lot more recent when you look at how the Blazers have played over the last couple weeks. Lillard has been the poster boy for the restart, pouring in 31+ points on 40+ minutes in each of his last five games. The floor here is truly outrageous, and while the price is getting up there on DraftKings, he could have 90%+ ownership on FanDuel. The Lakers just can't contain him behind the three point line AND in the paint, and it sure looks like Dame is going to eat in some capacity over the course of this series.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 32.09 DK - 33.8
Dragic was flat out awesome in game one against the Pacers, and Spoelstra has a history of sticking with what works until the other team figures out how to stop it. Dragic led the team with 19 shots, and was second on the team in each of points, rebounds, and assists. He's still priced like the guy who was playing 28-30 minutes a game during the restart, and getting the bonus minutes and usage makes him a great cash game play.
Also considered: Alex Caruso, if Rondo sits again. He didn't do much on his 29 minutes in game one, but he really should have a 5x points per dollar floor with that kind of run.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 69.71 DK - 72.78
Harden didn't even need to do everything he is capable of in Houston's embarrassment of the Thunder in game one, and our projection system thinks he has more to give here. While the 34 minutes he played in game one might look like full run for a guy like Giannis, we know that the Rockets won't be shy about playing him 40+ in close games. While game one was a bloodbath, I'm not convinced that Houston will run the Thunder out of the gym in game two. The Thunder should actually be pretty good at defending the Rockets' small lineups, particularly around the three point line. Incidentally this should be good news for Harden, and anything like 40 minutes should get us 60+ FanDuel points here.
After Harden, our system sees a big group of guys who look very similar to me. CJ McCollum got a lot of opportunity in game one against the Lakers, but things looked really hard for him out there. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder played a healthy run of minutes, but were both awful in game one.
Tyler Herro was great off the bench, but can we count on those minutes going forward? I will say, there's one guy I could get excited about, if he plays...
Keep an eye on Victor Oladipo's status. His absence could mean big things for Sumner or a different wing should they move into the starting lineup.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 67.47 DK - 70.23
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 61.03 DK - 64.87
You sensing a theme yet? Our system is going to love the big money plays, basically all of them, given how minutes and usage get consolidated during the playoffs. Giannis played 4 more minutes than his season averages, and these are the prices we paid during the regular season. LeBron played 6 more minutes than his season average, and he also managed a 23/17/16 line in a game where his team scored just 93 points from the field. The Lakers have a had a tough time since the restart, but one has to think that they'll figure things out in some capacity against a pretty bad Portland defense, and I just have to think that LeBron is way too cheap here.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.18 DK - 30.59
There's no way to escape it: Melo is a key part of this frisky Trail Blazers squad. He's playing 37 minute rotations in close games ever since the restart, and was a key piece in basically every phase of Portland's game plan in game one. He gobbled up 10 boards, shot 11 times, and even chipped in 5 assists, a block, and a steal as well. He's one of the only guys on the Blazers who even has the body to chase 'Bron around, and his role looks pretty secure here. I love him in every format tonight, and provides key savings on a day where you want to pay up as much as you can.
Also considered: Evan Fournier, who didn't do much in 35 minutes against the Bucks. Still, he's cheap and you can't pay up at every position.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 61.56 DK - 61.09
You can't pay up at every position, so you're going to be faced with some tough choices today. Our system is partial to Davis, who is far and away the best points per dollar play at the power forward position. Davis seemed to disappear at times in game one, and I did a double take to see he finished with a 28/11 line. On paper he should be a terrible match-up for the Blazers, since neither Nurkic nor Whiteside should be able to keep pace with him. I think the Lakers will capitalize on this in game two, and we could see Davis finish with something like 30/15. If you can't pay up for Davis, though, we do have two other decent options.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.98 DK - 34.1
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 41.5 DK - 42.41
These are the only two other power forwards our projection system can even consider today. Bam put together an awfully clean 47 FanDuel points in game one, going for 17/10/6 with three blocks for good measure. I don't see why he shouldn't do something similar each game. But like I've said many times, every dollar counts today, and you might not be able to afford him if you grab Davis. If so, I think people might be sleeping on Covington here. Game one was out of hand, and each of the starters lost minutes. During the restart we saw Covington playing 35-36 minutes when the Rockets were trying, and without Westbrook there should be ample offensive opportunity for him as well. If I can't play Davis, I would be very comfortable pairing these two.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 42.18 DK - 42.45
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.99 DK - 32.36
The Twin Towers of Portland! Nurkic is an obvious high floor play here. He had a double double in the first quarter, and while he slowed down after that Portland could have gone to him more if they had needed to. I'm honestly more excited by how the Blazers used Whiteside, though. The Whiteside/Nurkic lineup works totally fine against the Lakers' anemic offense since so much of what they do relies on Bron getting to the lane, Brow creating a shot, or hitting Howard/McGee rolling to the basket. The extra size helps in all of those cases, and Whiteside provided a vintage 5 block game in game one. At these prices he's a great value, and I'd be thrilled to play him if it meant I could pay for more superstars elsewhere.
Also considered: Uh, Nikola Vucevic? He played like a man possessed in game one against the Bucks, but I don't think you want to go there in cash games until they prove that game one wasn't a fluke.
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