(AP Photo/Joshua Paul)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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The 2019-20 season is winding down and that means it's playoff time! Last week's Wyndham Championship was the final event for players to play their way into the Top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings and that is exactly what Jim Herman did as he came into last week ranked 192nd and is now 54th. He was only one of three(Shane Lowry, Zach Johnson the others) to go into the Wyndham outside the Top 125 and play their way in.
The next focus for the players will not just be making the cut of Top 65 and ties at the Northern Trust this week, but also making the cut of Top 70 that will move on to the BMW Championship next week. As you would expect with a playoff event, the field is stacked with each of the Top 10 and 40 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. With a loaded field, we get more soft salaries and a set up like the majors which makes stars and scrubs much easier but it also does the same for balanced builds as the quality of players you get for the same salary as a regular tournament is much higher.
From a statistical perspective, I am keying in on three main stats this week. With a track record of winning scores in the -15 to -20 range, Birdie or Better % will be very important this week. Second, the roughs are not as penal and the field at TPC Boston has averaged around 65% the last five years at the Dell Technologies Championship/Deutsch Bank Championship. This leads me to Strokes Gained: Approach as a core stat and with the smaller, fast greens, proximity is what will separate the trophy chasers from the trunk slammers. With the course being a Par 71 there is one less par 5 and 11 par 4's putting par 4 scoring near the top of the list as well.
For cash games, I run a bit different model in that I add Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling in the mix as the greens are small and those who can get up and down and save pars will greatly increase their chance of making the cut. I will also throw some weight on scoring average before the cut as well in my cash game model.
With that said, let's look at the scorecard, some previous winners on the course, and then some core plays in each price range.
TPC Boston
Par 71 - 7,342 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Justin Thomas
FedEx Cup Rank (#1)
Vegas Odds (13/1)
Draftkings ($11,300)
FanDuel ($11,900)
With some softer pricing, I am going right to the top with JT this week. The decision was not easy between him and Bryson who are the last two golfers to win on this course when it was the Dell Technologies Championship and second playoff event. I will have exposure to both but slightly more JT and it comes down to stats, both long term, and short term. What I like the most is that JT is 1st overall in SG: Approach on my sheet(95% this season, 5% last season) and in my custom model on Fantasy National while Bryson is 76th and 88th. I think both can use their distance to once again contend at TPC Boston but the edge goes to JT who is on point with his irons.
Patrick Cantlay
FedEx Cup Rank (#32)
Vegas Odds (31/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($10,900)
The system and my sheet absolutely love Cantlay almost every time he tees it up and nothing changes this week in terms of modeling. Personally, the decision is not as easy as the form has fallen off a bit(t32, T35, T43 last 3 events) after a solid start when he returned from the break(T11, T7). One thing we do know is that we will most likely see Cantlay playing on the weekend as he comes in having made 22 straight cuts in stroke-play events(missed cut at Zurich team event in 2019). The other thing that pops outside his elite ball-striking(8th on sheet) is the fact we get him in the low $9K range this week. Sign me up in all formats.
Abraham Ancer
FedEx Cup Rank (#13)
Vegas Odds (61/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($9,700)
Ancer's price is back down below $8K on DraftKings which immediately puts him on my radar this week. He finished T7 at TPC Boston in 2018 and comes into this week ranked(in this field) 14th in ball striking, 11th in proximity, 28th in putting and 29th in birdie or better gained since the return of golf. While he has just one Top 10 in six events since the return, he has made the cut in all of them and is average 10.2x value on DK at his current price and hasn't missed a cut since the Shriners back in October(15 straight). All things considered, he is a core play for me in all formats.
Hideki Matsuyama
FedEx Cup Rank (#18)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($10,600)
For only the fourth time this season, we get Deki under $9K and coming to a course where he has tallied four straight Top 25 finishes including a T4 in 2018. He hasn't been great since the return to golf but he also hasn't been terrible either with four Top 25 finishes in the six events and ranks 12th in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green since the return of golf. The only issue has been the putter(123rd in SG:P since return) but the good news on that front is that he gained 1.4 strokes putting at the PGA Championship which was the most he had gained in one event since the BMW Championship last August. At this price, Deki is a core play in all formats.
Russell Henley
FedEx Cup Rank (#101)
Vegas Odds (126/1)
Draftkings ($7,300)
FanDuel ($8,900)
Henley comes into the first playoff event ranked 101st so he will have some work to do if he wants to travel to the BMW Championship next week. The course history may not stand out with only finish inside the Top 40 but the good news is it was a runner-up back in 2014 so there is some success. I more concentrating on his form at the moment and since the return of golf, Henley has made four of six cuts and also tallied two Top 10's. While the putter adds a ton of variance to his finishes, the tee to green game has been tremendous since the return as he ranks 2nd in the field in that area, 2nd in SG: Approach, and 1st in Opportunities Gained. If he can put together another average to slightly above average week on the green, another Top 10 is huge upside at these prices.
Henrik Norlander
FedEx Cup Rank (#68)
Vegas Odds (201/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)
FanDuel ($8,000)
After back to back weeks getting Norlander in the $7K range, he is back down where we can feel very comfortable rostering him in almost every format. Since missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge in the first event back, he has now made six straight cuts and ranks 11th Tee to Green, 3rd in SG: Approach, and 9th in Par 4 Scoring since the break. There is no course history but the consistency I just mentioned plus the price is more than enough to have him as a core value play this week.
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