James Harden, de los Rockets de Houston, festeja luego de encestar un triple ante los Bulls de Chicago, el sábado 9 de noviembre de 2019 (AP Foto/Matt Marton)
The first day of the playoffs didn't disappoint with an OT game, the Nets hanging at least for a bit and the other games offering enough intrigue to keep it all interesting. We've got another run of four games on Tuesday with pleny of storylines to sink our teeth into.
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.92 DK - 42.41
Revenge narrative?! It’s so fitting that Chris Paul and the Thunder will take on the now-Westbrook-less Houston Rockets and James Harden. Paul has had a spectacular season, leading the Thunder to a somewhat improbable playoff run. For the season, he averaged 17 points and seven assists and the .552 effective field goal percentage was the second-best of his career. Now he’ll face a Rockets team with the third-worst defensive efficiency among playoff teams. Paul should play minutes in the mid-30’s and not having Westbrook on the other side of the ball helps CP3 here. He’s a good mid-tier value on FanDuel.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 33.02 DK - 33.71
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.68 DK - 27.59
I’m putting these guys together because they carry similar risk in the same price tier on FanDuel. The concern for both is this game turns into an utter blowout with the Bucks -12 favorites. The game getting out of hand would mean reduced minutes for both. In the two bubble games where he ramped up to 30 minutes, Bledsoe averaged 13 points, six rebounds and six assists. One was without Giannis so it meant some extra opportunity for sure. But he’s coming cheap enough to deal with some of the risk of getting burned off the run.
Meanwhile, Fultz took over the starting point guard job three games ago, supplanting DJ Augustin. He’s been good with 15 points, six assists and two steals per game. The three-point shooting is still basically nonexistent, but he does enough to contribute across the stat line to play at the these prices if you think the Magic can hang in until the fourth quarter.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 60.22 DK - 62.86
The Rockets will play at least the beginning part of this series without Russell Westbrook and that should mean it’s the Harden show. The latter has a full season 36% usage rate, but that (already high) number jumps to a ridiculous 43% with Westbrook off the court. The assists and rebounds jump about 8% as well. Harden should play major minutes and though he’s an expensive play this is definitely the big money option on both sites. There should be just enough savings in some other spots to roster him and one more expensive play on this slate.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 22.11 DK - 22.5
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 23.74 DK - 23.64
KCP and Danny Green might be as close as we get to punt plays on Tuesday. Both will be in the starting lineup for the Lakers and could play major minutes if they need to stay on the court to defend Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum respectively. Caldwell-Pope shot it well from beyond the arc this season at 39%, the best mark of his career though it was on fewer than four attempts per game. From a fantasy perspective, he doesn’t contribute a ton except for the limited scoring, but that’s reflected in the price.
Green really struggled this season, shooting 37% from three, the third-worst mark of his career. He can truly disappear in games if the three isn’t dropping, but I do think they are going to need his defense in this series meaning the minutes should tick up.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.16 DK - 36.04
2020 was Gallo’s second-straight season of shooting over 40% from three, this time on more than seven attempts per game. The Thunder didn’t press him to tons of minutes, playing fewer than 30 per game but that could change with a shortened playoff rotation from OKC. He rebounds the ball at a fine enough rate, with about five boards per game. This game should feature a ton of points and it’s a pace-up matchup for the Thunder. I like Gallo’s price on both sites, but especially on FanDuel.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 26.84 DK - 28.39
Gordon played only two games in the bubble, going only mid-20’s minutes in each. But that is set to change early in this first round with the Rockets playing without Russell Westbrook and needing a second scorer next to Harden. Gordon is the other big beneficiary of having no Russ. Gordon’s 26.5% usage rate with Westbrook off the court is the second-highest on the team after Harden and up from the 21% usage he’s had all season. This is a good cheap play on FanDuel and I don’t even mind the DraftKings price either. Keep an ear out if there’s a minutes cap for Gordon, but so far there’s no news on that front.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 58.4 DK - 58.03
Davis, and really the Lakers as a whole, struggled in the bubble. The offense looked stagnant and as a team it was an uninspired effort. But there’s reason to think they were also simply on cruise control with almost nothing to play for, until now. This is a guy who averaged 26 points, nine rebounds and 3.8 blocks+steals this season. The Blazers have been a nice story but it’s mostly been on the offensive side. Their defense is more than suspect and have no one who can really come close to matching up with Davis. I think the Lakers start to break out of their funk here and we could be looking at a big upside game from AD.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 42.69 DK - 43.57
Adebayo was one of the breakout players for 2020 putting up a magnificent season in his third year in the league. He averaged 16 points, 10 rebounds and five assists and 2.4 steals+blocks on the season. The Heat have him starting at the five now after nominally starting Meyers Leonard and then even Kelly Olynyk there. But those moves seem over as they move into the playoffs and Adebayo is set for major run in this series against the Pacers. I really like the DraftKings price and he’s PF/C eligible over there.
I don’t mind Robert Covington (FD $7000 DK $6500) who could play about 40 minutes in this game. He’s an excellent DraftKings play.
And if Aaron Gordon sits again then Gary Clark (FD $3700 DK $3000) could come in as a true punt play.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.38 DK - 35.19
It’s well documented that the Rockets eschewed the center position when they traded Clint Capela and went all-in on the small ball era. The shift was largely effective from a winning perspective, but it did mean opposing centers were/are able to have their way down low. The Rockets allowed 16 rebounds per game to opposing centers, the most of any team in the playoffs except Brooklyn. Before battling some injuries in the bubble, Adams averaged 14 points and nine rebounds in the first three games of the restart. He’s at a distinct advantage in this matchup and is reasonably priced on both sites.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 22.37 DK - 22.28
Tucker came into the bubble and immediately ran 38 and 39 minutes respectively. They dialed back the minutes some after that, but expect them to get up to and maybe over 40 in these playoffs. The Rockets rely on Tucker for a lot on the defensive end which keeps him on the floor for long stretches. The offense, such as it is, isn’t there all that much so you are relying on rebounding and some defensive stats. Even this cheap Tucker isn’t an automatic play even with some of the highest projected minutes on the slate.
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