DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/18/20

We've got a packed MLB slate for Tuesday. Let's take a look at DraftKings and FanDuel baseball plays.

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Pitchers

Yu Darvish FD - P 9900 DK - SP 10500
Opponent - STL (Daniel Ponce de Leon) Park - CHC
FD - 40.94 DK - 22.49
Darvish has been fantastic to start the season, following up on his excellent second half in 2019. This season he’s striking batters out at a 10.13 per nine rate which is down some for his career. But where he’s really winning is limiting the walks. For his career, he’s walked more than three batters per nine. This season, through the first four starts, that number is down to 1.50. It’s helped him to a 1.88 ERA which is lower than the 3.10 xFIP, but both are fantastic. He’s a -180 home favorite against the Cardinals and we are just waiting on the wind direction in Wrigley on Tuesday.

Carlos Carrasco FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9900
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 36.42 DK - 19.7
Carrasco reeled off four straight six inning games to start the season but ran into some control issues against the Cubs in his last start, walking five. Overall, he’s been very good striking out more than 12 batters per nine though the walk rate definitely looks weird because of the last start. On Tuesday he enters as a -190 favorite over the Pirates who’ve struggled to start the season and have very little firepower in the lineup. I prefer Darvish, but Carrasco makes a case to go double expensive on DraftKings.

Trevor Bauer (FD $12000 DK $10800) has been amazing this season for sure. He almost certainly won’t keep up this K rate, but he’s also putting it all together this year and is completely elite. He’s expensive and I think the two guys above are better values, but it’s hard to argue with the results.

Dylan Bundy FD - DK - SP 9100
Opponent - SF (Trevor Cahill) Park - LAA
FD - 0 DK - 18.66 I know he’s Early-Only but I just wanted to make note of Bundy here. Bundy’s been the surprise arm to start 2020, near the top of starting pitcher WAR thanks to just dominating on the mound. He’s averaging more than seven innings per start, striking out close to 11 batters per nine, walking fewer than one per nine and sporting a 2.88 xFIP. He’s throwing the fastball less than his career average, and using the slider much more. It’s for sure paying off. He has the second-best money line win odds at -225 against the Giants. The price still hasn’t totally caught up to what Bundy is doing this season.

Catcher/First Base

Rhys Hoskins FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 4900
Opponent - BOS (Zack Godley) Park - BOS
FD - 14.08 DK - 10.39 Hoskins has had a super weird start to the 2020 season. First off, the good: he’s walking at a career-high and crazy-elite 22% right while reducing the strikeouts off his career averages. So that’s the good news. The bad is that his slugging percentage is worse the the OBP (very hard to do) because he hasn’t hit a home run in his first 71 plate appearances. The batted ball numbers look fine and in line with his career so this could very well be a case of super run bad over the short term. It’s got his price lower on FanDuel and I think we can go back to the well against Zack Godley.

Carlos Santana FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4300
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.04
In his 11th season, Santana continues to be one of the most patient hitters in the game and this season he’s taking it to another level. A lot like Hoskins, he has a crazy 29% walk rate compared to an 18% K rate. And like Hoskins, the OBP is better than the slugging. Unlike Rhys, I’m a little worried about the batted ball because Santana’s hard contact rate is way down compared to his career averages. But he’s still hitting in the middle of this Indians’ lineup and doesn’t break the bank for you. The patience makes him a higher floor cash play for sure.

Second Base

Kike Hernández FD - 2B 2400 DK - 2B/SS 3600
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - LAD
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.71
Second base is a real problem on Tuesday, especially on FanDuel. I’m not in love with the idea of playing Hernandez hitting something like 8th in the Dodgers’ lineup, but dude has been solid over his career against lefties. He has a .351 wOBA and .828 OPS in that split with an 11% walk rate and is tough to K at only 18%. He’s coming near punt prices which would make the slot in the order (if low) a bit easier to deal with.

Cesar Hernández FD - 2B 2700 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.47
Hernandez is another guy who’s gotten off to a slow start this season and it’s keeping the price in check on FanDuel though DraftKings is still pretty aggressive. He’s walking 12% of the time but the K’s are up over his career average. I’m still a believer but the concern is that his OPS is low even with decent help on the BABIP side. It’s because he’s grounding out more, a number that tends to normalize quickly if something is “off”. That being said, hitting at the top of the lineup in this matchup and at these prices has him at a value play despite the early season struggles.

Shortstop

Chris Taylor FD - SS 2500 DK - OF/SS 3200
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - LAD
FD - 11.88 DK - 9.04
Taylor hit sixth for the Dodgers last time they face a lefty (Heaney) and should be around that spot again on Tuesday against Marco Gonzales. Taylor is mostly platoon neutral for his career with nearly identical .770 OPS’s against either hand. But he walks more against lefties and strikes out less with some BABIP issues driving down the numbers in that split. At these prices with the Dodgers having the highest implied run total on the day, he’d be an easy play in cash if in the lineup.

Jorge Polanco FD - SS 2800 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - MIL (Corbin Burnes) Park - MIN
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.17
Polanco should be in the two-hole against the righty Corbin Burnes who might start off a bullpen game for the Brewers. Burned has tons of K stuff, but the control has been lacking to start the season. Polanco doesn’t take a ton of walks, but is tough to K at only 10% this season and 16% for his career. These are elite numbers and he’s coming off a surprise 22 home run season in 2019. That’s probably going to end up being an outlier, but it does speak to some power in the bat when things are going right.

Third Base

Rafael Devers FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 4400
Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - BOS
FD - 14.06 DK - 10.67
Has Devers been terrible to start the season? For sure. Are we still working in small sample size territory? Most definitely. Drawing full conclusions after 80 or so plate appearances is folly and that’s just not how MLB works. Devers’ K’s have spiked and the power numbers are way down, both rough signs. But he’s also running super bad with a .240 BABIP, 11% Hr/FB ratio despite similar hard contact rates and is in a good spot against Eflin who’s brought fire this season, but doesn’t project as a high K pitcher.

Justin Turner FD - 3B 3200 DK - 3B 4900
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - LAD
FD - 14.5 DK - 10.96
Sure, this is the all-Dodgers picks write up and I’m not going to apologize for it. They have a great total and face a soft-tossing lefty in Marco Gonzales. For his career, Turner has been a very tough out for lefties, walking 11% of the time and striking out only 14%. Those are elite numbers in the split and have him at a 126 wRC+ and .356 wOBA. He’s basically as good against righties, but it doesn’t detract from what he can do in this matchup. Hitting third in the lineup at very reasonable prices has him a good cash game play.

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD - OF 4400 DK - OF 6100
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - LAD
FD - 16.84 DK - 12.71
AJ Pollock FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - LAD
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.31
No Dodgers’ stack is complete without Mookie Betts in your life. He’s been every bit of amazing this season after signing the big contract, putting up an early 1.035 OPS with eight home runs, two steals and still being impossible to strikeout at only 14%. He’s tuned up lefties to a career .901 OPS and is walking (12%) more than he’s striking out (11%) in that split. Betts is a great play any night and is especially good on Tuesday.

Pollock’s also been tuning dudes up to start the season with an early .952 OPS through his first 71 plate appearances. He already has five home runs after hitting 15 last season in 350 plate appearances. He’s been better against lefties for his career with a 120 wRC+ and .356 wOBA in that split with a .224 ISO. He hit cleanup last time they faced a lefty and should be in there again in the middle of the lineup on Tuesday.

Andrew McCutchen FD - OF 2400 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - BOS (Zack Godley) Park - BOS
FD - 13.97 DK - 10.49
It’s definitely been a nightmare start for McCutchen coming off the ACL injury from last season. It has him at nearly a min-priced player on FanDuel and *maybe* a value on DraftKings. But it’s tough to overlook the batting lineup placement and he continues to hit leadoff for the Phillies. As long as they trust him in that spot, I think I do too. It’s tough considering the early numbers which are horrid, but the plate appearance expectation and historical numbers are still hard to overlook.

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